The Decline of the “Bell Cow” Running Back
Change is inevitable in sports.
As is the case with a core position in football: running back.
“It’s almost more of a shock to see a running back get drafted in the first round as opposed to a kicker getting drafted in the second round,” said Simon Carroll, co-founder of The Touchdown.
The run game hasn’t diminished. Since 2006, NFL teams’ average carries each year have bounced between 25.9 and 28.2. But the way teams have approached the run game has altered.
For years, having a prized running back in the backfield — such as Barry Sanders, LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson — was critical to developing an effective run game. It was all about having those “bell cows,” guys who are capable of taking on a large workload and flourishing.
But that approach has dwindled.
“Very few teams are open to the idea of drafting a running back in the first round unless he is very special and their offense will benefit directly from that selection right away,” NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein said.
The numbers support that. Taking a look at the top-15 RB carry total averages, there’s been a steady decline since 2006.
There’s no magic number of carries to be considered a bell cow, but people usually point to 300-plus carries as a solid mark. But as bell cows have started to fade and running back by committees have emerged, teams have gone with two, three or even four-man backfields.
With that, the number of running backs with hefty carry totals has taken a nosedive.
Some of these numbers are staggering. In the past seven years, the number of RBs with 250-plus carries has been single digits in all but one. There have been two or fewer backs with 300-plus carries in each of the past eight years.
What’s causing this shift? There’s typically one reason that floats above the rest.
“The dramatic increase in injuries over the years has played a major factor,” Carroll said. “Teams are beginning to move away from bell cow running backs because most can’t make it through a full season without suffering an injury.”
Running backs are one of, if not the most injured position in football. And their shelf life is severely reduced with the pounding they take on the field. So it’s rare to see a back who’s taking on 300-plus carries.
Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey — who are all workhorses and integral parts of their respective offenses — suffered injuries and missed games this season.
“I believe running backs still possess value, but I wouldn’t feel great about drafting a running back in the top 20,” Stampede Blue senior writer Chris Shepherd said.
And that’s been the trend. Since Barkley was drafted №2 in 2018, there hasn’t been an RB drafted higher than №24 in the last three drafts.
Instead, teams are putting a bigger emphasis on building up their offensive lines and finding a competent running back to insert into the offense.
“While an elite running back can make an offensive line look better — such as LaDainian Tomlinson — it is much more common for a good offensive line to create opportunities for good to average backs alike,” Zierlein said.
That’s the approach teams are taking, and it has resulted in the number of 1,000-yard backs reducing.
But still, teams are continuing to find similar rushing production — with a new method. The trend has been established, and it appears things are going to continue in that direction.
Dylan Chrisco, who played offensive lineman for Clayton Valley Charter High School in Concord, California, has seen this shift and thinks it’s here to stay.
“The game has less of a requirement for what once used to be a centerpiece position like running back,” Chrisco said.
All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
