The Witness’s Guide to the Greek Election

“I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast,” the Queen tells Alice in Through the Looking-Glass.

In the last six years, Greece has been subject to six public votes. The economic crisis has spawned a political crisis. 
The six public votes cast by the Greek electorate are impossible things to have predicted, but they have indeed happened, and have served to highlight how the ideology of political victory is always available; it just changes the agents of its representation. With the introduction of each memorandum, or “bailout” (now totalling three, but who’s counting) the ruling party has lost their parliamentary majority. The well-worn crisis has produced a level of political instability last seen in Europe during the late 60’s. Today Greece votes again, and it is significant for it’s non-significance. Here is the witness’s guide to the Greek Election.

Wait, Another Election?! Why?

Why not? Elections have become the national pastime in Greece.

However…

Following January’s elections (which were held after the ruling New Democracy party couldn’t garner enough votes to pass more bailout legislation through parliament) and July’s referendum (where 60% voted against stricter bailout terms, but which proved inconsequential after SYRIZA signed a whole new bailout program — the strictest of all three — a mere three weeks later) Greeks are casting their ballots for the third time this year. After the referendum SYRIZA’s slim parliamentary majority has been vulnerable. The signing of a 3rd memorandum lost SYRIZA key support both within (no more Yanis Varoufakis) and with the public (turns out Greek’s don’t like austerity). After the election was called the Party split, with 25 MP’s forming “Popular Unity”, a party more inline with SYRIZA’s initial anti-austerity message.

SYRIZA’s young and charismatic leader Alexis Tsipras was keen to call an election before the effects of the third memorandum take place and whilst the party can still dictate terms. Debt to GDP is expected to peak at 200% and the current humanitarian crisis will prolong and worsen (a.k.a more poverty, more homelessness, more preventable deaths).

Who Will Win?

Asking who will win the election presents itself as an ontological fallacy; it implies a certain degree of volunteerism without the Greek electorate. In other words, no-one will win. Currently, it is expected that both SYRIZA and New Democracy will poll similarly (around 30%), but neither will have enough support to form government on their own or with the co-operation of micro-parties, thus creating the basis for a unity government to emerge, or “grand coalition”, between the two.

Most voters are merely choosing which party will be best at managing the memorandum.

Two things are clear:

1. The mainstream Greek political landscape has shifted from a debate of anti-austerity or austerity, towards a debate of managing austerity.
2. Apathy is polling well. This election will be marked by its extremely low turnout (in January’s election turnout was 64%). This is emphasised by Alexis Tsipras, who tweeted street artwork depicting himself with a halo. The slogan reads: “There are no miracles if you abstain”.

Indeed, Syriza’s election slogan “Only Forward” is key to the whole scenario. The splintering of the political landscape is starting to resolve itself into a modicum of deniability as the question facing the electorate shifts from “do we accept the memorandum” to “how do we best manage it”.

It’s a profoundly strange election. Whichever party claims victory will inherit deeply the unpopular task of implementing the restrictive terms of the the €86bn bailout (both SYRIZA and New Democracy have pledged pre-election commitments to its implementation), involving pension cuts, privatisation and increased taxes — coupled with funding that is dependent on meeting a series of reform hurdles. Due to the restrictions on policy direction, the election is fundamentally about personality; the Troika has locked in the policy.

The election fatigue of 9.8 million Greeks will be tested.

What Was The Result Last Time?

Last time SYRIZA swept to power with 36% of the vote (coming from just 4% in 2012) with a fervent anti-austerity message that filled the street’s of Athens. They fell short of claiming majority and formed a coalition with ANEL (Independent Greeks). What followed was months of negotiations with the Troika that culminated in capital controls, a dramatic referendum and eventually, the introduction of even harsher austerity.

Following the referendum vote in July, New Democracy changed it’s leader from Antonis Samaras (who won the 2012 election) to veteran Evangelos Meimarakis — a 61-year old former defence minister and parliament speaker — who has been presenting himself as the elder statesman during the campaign (increasingly as “safe hands”) to the turbulence of SYRIZA.

Explain The Greek Electoral System To Me

It’s weird.

Parliament is made up of 300 seats, but the winning party receives a bonus 50 seats. Therefore to claim victory a party need only receive 40% of the vote. To gain entry in parliament, a party has to poll a minimum of 3%. Both of these rules make it difficult for new political currents to emerge, and serve to entrench power.

Also, politicians are immune from prosecution: being elected is a good incentive to become corrupt. Greece is the most corrupt country in Europe.

Party Guide

SYRIZA (incumbent): Led by outgoing prime minister Alexis Tsipras, SYRIZA (an acronym for “Coalition of the Radical Left”) were initially predicted to win comfortably, yet since the first election in January have seen support fall dramatically. Elected to end austerity, they have presided over a new program of austerity that far exceeds what previous and more conservative governments introduced (I have written about this in longofrm here and in short form here).

The popularity of once untouchable Tsipras has also suffered. His personal approval rating has bottomed out at 29.5% after topping 70%.

SYRIZA introduced the third memorandum in 2015.

New Democracy (challenger): Conservative, openly neoliberal and part of the traditional Greek ruling class. Alternated electoral power with PASOK from 1974 until SYRIZA’s election in January.

New Democracy introduced the second memorandum in 2012

Golden Dawn: Neo-Nazi party currently polling third. If SYRIZA and New Democracy form a unity government, or “grand coalition”, Golden Dawn will become the official opposition party in Greece. Golden Dawn is known for its fascist ideology, links to organised crime and beating of migrants and minorities. During the last election it’s leaders were in jail yet they still polled the third highest vote. Their logo resembles a swastika.

KKE: Communist Party of Greece. Marxist-Leninist and distinctively anti-capitalist. The KKE holds large support from unions and is the oldest political party in Greece.

To Potami (the River): A populist and centrist party that draws support from the upper-middle class.

ANEL (Independent Greeks): An extreme right-wing party and the junior coalition partner in the outgoing SYRIZA government. ANEL is anti-immigrant, pro-military and highly nationalist.

PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement). Greece’s traditional centre left party. After decades of alternating government with New Democracy, their support collapsed when they introduced the first memorandum in 2010.

Popular Unity: Minority split of SYRIZA comprising 25 MP’s. Anti-austerity but not anti-capitalist. Struggling in the polls due to the participation of leading figures in the SYRIZA government.

Should We Care About This Election

Not particularly; at least not about the immediate election outcome. The electorate is tired. The result will confirm that the new political establishment of Greece is still pro-Euro, but decidedly less anti-austerity. The rise of Golden Dawn — a neo-Nazi party — as the likely official opposition party must be noted, especially for a country previously occupied by the Nazi’s during World War II and ruled by a Military Junta from 1967–74.

Ultimately, the election means that Greece will stabilise politically and the news cycle will reduce its coverage of Greece. The crisis however, will not disappear.

Give Me A Random Fact

Large numbers of voting is happening in schools across the country that have been closed due to a lack of funding.

Summary

It’s a coin toss as to whether Syriza or New Democracy will form the next government, but it’s definitely a Euro-coin.

Update: Election Result

SYRIZA Have Won The Election

Against the predictions of polls, SYRIZA have won the Greek election with 35.5% of the vote (just shy of their January vote of 36.3%) against New Democracy’s 28%. This is a much wider margin than expected and goes against polls leading up to the ballot, which predicted a tight race. SYRIZA have indicated a desire to once again form a coalition with ANEL (Independent Greeks) and will seek a mandate from the President to do so within the next three days.

“Pro-bailout” parties got 87% of vote and 89% of MPs.

Key Points

- Whilst SYRIZA may have claimed victory, apathy came a close second. Turnout was a mere 54%, the lowest since World War 2 and down 10% from January’s election.

- Despite high profile members leaving the party and voicing their dissatisfaction in the build-up to the election, SYRIZA held on to broad (yet noticeably un-enthusiastic) public support. However, against all-odds, Tsipras has now won two elections and a referendum in the space of nine months. The electorate is clearly responding to his leadership. Alexis Tsipras is the face, arms and legs of the new Greek political landscape.

- The traditional political duopoly of New Democracy and PASOK has been critically disrupted. The ‘old-guards’ are both struggling to poll beyond their base, with PASOK reduced to playing the role of a minor party.

- Golden Dawn, a neo-nazi party, once again placed third, legitimising their popularity (they polled especially high with the unemployed).

- The much-hyped splinter group from SYRIZA, Popular Unity, failed to earn the 3% threshold for entry to parliament. This reinforces that the support base of SYRIZA itself was not radicalised by their role in government, rather, the electorate has dramatically shifted to the right with support for austerity being the common line for all mainstream parties, except…

- The only party in parliament and against austerity is the KKE. The Greek Communist Party maintained support from January’s election at 5.5%.

- The Greek election system (where parties must gain 3% of votes to gain entry) recorded 6.5% of votes not being awarded parliamentary representation.

- Rumours of new elections next year remain a possibility.