The Summer 2024 COVID Surge Continues: Update for August 2, 2024
Last week’s wastewater data suggested that the summer COVID surge might be coming to an end. A week later, our COVID surge continues, with a new aggressive family of variants gaining momentum and risks rising across all US regions. This week’s update:
COVID Viral Risks Are High and Continuing to Rise
Although last week’s wastewater update suggested that the US summer surge was peaking, this week's data update reveals that assessment was optimistic. In fact, COVID is still rising in US wastewater. The prevalence of COVID in wastewater, which is an accurate indicator of the number of people infected, rose in all four US regions in the past week.
Currently, the CDC indicates the wastewater viral activity level for COVID-19 is High in the United States. This varies by region:
- West: COVID risks are highest in the West, where the level of COVID in wastewater is the second-highest it’s been during summer in 30 months. The level of COVID is still rising, but it is expected to peak soon.
- South: COVID levels are also very high in the South and still growing. In this region, COVID is higher than it’s been the last three summers.
- The Midwest and Northeast are seeing rising COVID risks, but at a much more moderate level than the other regions. Neither are (yet) near the level of past peaks, but some experts anticipate the Midwest and Northeast are merely lagging the other regions and that infections will continue to rise.
Based on the wastewater data, it is estimated that over 850,000 Americans are being infected with COVID each day, and one in 56 Americans is presently COVID+. On average across the US, a room with 20 people has a 30% chance of including someone infectious, and a room with 40 people more than likely includes someone who has COVID.
Although the positive rate of testing is not as reliable as wastewater data, the testing data also validates this surge is continuing. The Walgreens Respiratory Index is based on fairly shallow data, and it indicates the positive rate has remained at a consistently high level for most of the past month. Meanwhile, the CDC data on the positive rate of testing is more complete, and it indicates the positive rate continues to rise at an aggressive pace. Per the CDC, the positive rate of testing is presently at the second-highest level of the entire pandemic.
The CDC’s wastewater data indicates that COVID viral activity is Very High in 21 states. This includes many states in the West and South, plus Missouri, Minnesota, and Kansas. Meanwhile, the WastewaterSCAN dashboard shows the current level of COVID is extremely high in cities such as St. Petersburg, Tallahassee, and Orlando in Florida, Roswell GA, and Anchorage AK.
DeFLuQE Variants Rise
A new family of variants, labeled DeFLuQE, are increasing. This family of COVID mutations, descendants of the KP.3.1.1 variant, are immune-evasive and rising globally. In the US, KP.3.1.1 has risen from 2.9% of cases six weeks ago to 27.8% in the latest CDC Nowcast. It should become predominant in the next two weeks.
Contrary to most people’s perceptions, the mutation rate of COVID is not declining. We’ve seen more mutations in 2024 than in any other year. This isn’t just some organic occurrence that would occur regardless of human activities; in fact, it’s happening because most people are ignoring the risks, taking no precautions, and inviting more infections. The greater the number of infections, the greater opportunity we give the virus to mutate. As the number of variants grows, so does the risk of reinfection, as does the threat of new immune-evasive variants that will drive our next great surge.
The growth of the DeFLuQE variants suggests our summer surge will continue into August. Thereafter, we are likely to see declining COVID risks in the fall until another holiday surge ignites in November. If most Americans ignore the new fall vaccines, as they did last year, the COVID surge in December and January could be very significant. The combination of aging immunization protection and rapid viral evolution seems destined to create another dangerous holiday season. We can anticipate a substantial number of infections, medical capacity stretched by COVID and other seasonal respiratory viruses, and a significant swell of new people with Long COVID in early 2025.
Please take the CDC’s recommendation to get new fall vaccinations. And monitor COVID surges so you can adjust your behaviors accordingly. Your next infection could be the one that leaves you with chronic cardiovascular, neurological, immunological, or Long COVID health impairments. The latest Census Bureau data tells us that 1 of every 23 Americans has activity limitations due to Long COVID, which should serve as a reminder that ignoring repeated infections can lead to very unpleasant consequences.
The “Post-Pandemic Olympics” Demonstrates We Are Not Post-Pandemic
The absurdity of society’s COVID denialism is clearly evident at the Paris Olympics. The event is being held during a significant surge of COVID across Europe and the world. Despite this, Olympic officials have opted to pretend the risks are gone. As a result, multiple athletes have been infected, causing them to withdraw or perform under expectations.
I truly do not understand the willingness of athletes to put their dreams at risk. Years of intense training have led them to the largest sports stage in the world, and choosing to ignore or accept the risk of COVID infection is simply ridiculous. Athletes and trainers who have sought every competitive edge imaginable are missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime chance, all because they refuse to wear a $4 respirator.
Some COVID+ Olympians have decided to compete while infected, risking others’ safety and their own long-term health. Not getting enough rest during the acute stage of a COVID infection is associated with a greater risk of suffering from chronic, Long COVID symptoms. A brand-new study of Long COVID notes that being unable to rest during the initial illness is one of several factors that make one more likely to get Long COVID and less likely to recover.
The Olympics are not yet half over, so we’re likely to see more sad stories of dreams lost because athletes opted to pretend COVID was gone.
“Today is and will be one of the worst days of my life. Due to a COVID infection, I have to cancel my start at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. What I’m feeling right now goes beyond any defeat I’ve ever experienced in sports. I am absolutely stunned, devastated and no longer understand the world.” - German decathlete Manuel Eitel on Instagram after withdrawing from the Paris Olympics
Take Care, Please
No one is suggesting you isolate yourself. It is possible to enjoy your life while taking modest precautions. These include staying up to date on vaccinations and, especially during surges, avoiding indoor crowds and wearing masks.
Every reinfection increases your risks of chronic illness. If you’d like to estimate your Long COVID risk, The Immunisation Coalition in Australia has launched a new tool that will calculate your risk of hospitalization or Long COVID based on your health, vaccinations, and infections. For me, having had COVID once and more than four jabs (the last one nine months ago), my risk of having one Long COVID symptom six months after another infection is almost 50%, and my chance of having cardiovascular long COVID symptoms six months later is around 15%.
What’s your risk? Shouldn’t you know before pretending COVID is gone and accepting needless risks at events, while traveling, or in crowds?