US COVID Update for July 7, 2024: Infections High in Parts of US, and the CDC Takes a Vacation After Quietly Strengthening Guidance

This week, the US CDC discreetly increased its warnings about the risks of COVID, and then promptly took a holiday vacation. It did this despite the fact COVID is very high in select spots of the US and rising generally nationwide. Here is this week’s update on COVID-19 in the United States:

The CDC Changes Its COVID Tune — Quietly

While most of the nation pretends COVID is gone, the CDC upgraded its language and urged more caution. But, it made the change stealthily.

The CDC this week acknowledged that COVID is not a seasonal virus like the flu or RSV. The update noted that COVID “can surge throughout the year” and that “surges outside the winter season will likely continue as long as new variants emerge and immunity decreases over time.” It also acknowledged that “Although COVID-19 is not the threat it once was, it is still associated with thousands of hospitalizations and hundreds of deaths each week in the United States, and can lead to Long COVID.” (The CDC is not entirely correct with his statement. While it is accurate to say COVID is not the acute threat it once was, it is actually a greater threat today to long-term health due to the increased risk associated with repeat infections.)

The CDC also subtly urged more caution — a message most Americans will not hear or heed. “During the summer and throughout the year, you can use many effective tools to prevent spreading COVID-19 or becoming seriously ill… COVID-19 is here to stay, but taking simple actions will help protect you and your loved ones from infection and serious illness.”

The release noted that the CDC continues to “publish weekly data so that the public can make informed decisions regarding their individual risk throughout the year.” The statement is rather ironic, since this week, with much of the nation seeing rising COVID risks, the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) (which is the best data we have to track COVID viral activity) took the holiday week off and did not provide a weekly update.

COVID Risks Rising This Summer in the US

Despite the lack of NWSS data this week, we know the US is in a summer COVID surge. While much of our monitoring system has been dismantled in the last year or two, we still have valid sources of information, including:

• CDC’s Weekly Test Positivity Data, which tells us the positive rate of testing is up threefold in six weeks and still rising at a brisk pace.
• Walgreens COVID Index, which also tracks the positive rate of testing. While narrower and less accurate than the CDC’s data, it also tells us that the positive rate is escalating rapidly.
• Wastewaterscan.org surveys a much smaller set of sewersheds than the NWSS and its data is very spotty, but it can offer very accurate tracking in select locations. (This site only reports on 194 sites nationally, and 44% of these are from just 3 states — California, Florida, and Texas. Meanwhile, populous states like New York and Illinois only have two reporting sites each.) This data source reveals that COVID levels are high nationally and rising at an increasing rate (see chart).

Together, these three data sources convey the same story: The US is seeing rising levels of COVID infections throughout the country.

COVID Risks Are Already Very High In Select US Hotspots

COVID risks are wildly uneven. Last week’s NWSS update noted that COVID levels in wastewater are more than three times higher in the West than in the Midwest and Northeast. But even that doesn’t tell the story of how different localities are seeing considerably different COVID levels.

The Wastewaterscan.org data, while incomplete, demonstrates that:

• Risks in Florida are among the highest in two years. (See the chart below, which shows two years of COVID levels in multiple Florida wastewater testing locations.) As expected, Florida emergency rooms are seeing a considerable increase in COVID infections, and the levels are approaching last winter’s peaks.
• Much of the Bay Area is at high levels. For example, COVID levels in San Jose just matched record levels since the start of the pandemic.
• COVID in the wastewater of Montpelier, VT has exploded eightfold in two weeks
• Warren, MI is up 3x in one week
• Most of TX is moderate, but theWoodlands is very high
• Hawaii’s recent surge seems to have peaked

Further Research Studies Reveal COVID Is Not Just a Mild Acute Illness

This should not need to be said, but since so many are ignoring COVID’s longer-term risks, it bears repeating: While the risks of severe acute disease have decreased in recent years, evidence continues to mount that each infection can damage your brain, heart, immune system, and leave a significant share of people with Long COVID.

For years, I’ve collected research studies that demonstrate the impact COVID can have on our bodies. My spreadsheet surpassed 700 studies as of this week. Recent research has revealed:

• Risks for pulmonary embolism were still doubled up to 4.5 months post-infection, and were still increased six to seven months after infection. Risks for myocardial infarction doubled for one month after infection, and an increased risk was still observed at least three months after infection. Risks for ischemic stroke doubled for 1.5 months post-infection. After nine months, the risk remained and was still statistically significant.
• While the potential link between COVID infections and cancer will take years to study, new research found that COVID impacts a protein, TMPRSS2. TMPRSS2 downregulation is known to be correlated with increased proliferation and worse survival in lung adenocarcinoma.
• A study of long-term quality of life found that 16.57% of those with COVID reported not feeling fully recovered 4.7 to 24 months after COVID diagnosis. The most prevalent symptoms were: Fatigue (54.8%); Loss of smell (40.9%); Problems speaking or communicating (29.6%); Loss of taste (28.7%); Confusion/lack of concentration (27.8%); Persistent muscle pain (24.3%) and Shortness of breath/breathlessness (23.5%). Lastly, they scored on average 9.63 points less in Euroquol (demonstrating a large decrease in quality of life).
• A study of data from commercial pilots found that those who had been infected with COVID had a 1.8 times higher risk of Sudden Cardiac Death compared to those who had not been infected.
• A study found high percentages of depressive, anxiety, and insomnia symptoms in the second month after discharge that persisted at 12 and 24 months. Psychiatric symptoms persisted throughout the 2-year follow-up.
• A study found evidence of COVID lasting up to 676 days in some patients, “suggesting that tissue viral persistence could be associated with long-term immunologic perturbations.”
• A study of EKG changes in people with respiratory viruses found a 50% higher rate of new ischemic abnormalities and new rhythm abnormalities in COVID patients compared to those with flu and RSV.
• A study found that both the short- and long-term risks of developing neuropsychiatric sequelae were elevated in those who had COVID compared with the general population and those with other respiratory infections. A range of conditions including Guillain-Barré syndrome, cognitive deficit, insomnia, anxiety disorder, encephalitis, ischemic stroke and mood disorder exhibited a pronounced increase in long-term risk.

You can find links to these and other studies on the health impacts of COVID in my Google spreadsheet.

Please Take Some Care

I regularly must defend myself against people who take an all-or-nothing attitude about COVID precautions. They think there is a bipolar choice between two extremes: Doing absolutely nothing or isolating endlessly. This is a false dichotomy. (It’s like suggesting you can either drive drunk or lock your car in your garage, with no alternatives in between.)

There are, in fact, simple things we could do collectively, as well as actions we can take individually to limit risks to ourselves and those we love.

We could probably wipe almost all COVID surges, greatly reduce the pace of viral evolution, and turn it into a normal respiratory virus that only reappears in winter with very modest collective action. In other words, we could reduce the risk of COVID to the levels we only pretend they are today. To do so, we would need to:

• Set and implement new rules for safe air in schools, workplaces, and commercial spaces. The cost of doing so would be moderate on a national scale and would bring significant economic benefits in terms of reduced healthcare costs, lower sick time, decreased disabilities, and diminished workplace interruptions.
• Implement perpetual masking in healthcare facilities to protect at-risk patients. Even before COVID, nosocomial infections were common and had an adverse impact on patients. Since COVID, we know that hospitals and other healthcare facilities drive a considerable portion of COVID infections, making them nexuses that contribute to our viral evolution and surges.
• Broad adoption of each new vaccine. Only a quarter of eligible Americans got last fall’s updated vaccine. The longer people go since their last vaccination, the higher the risk of infection, the greater the chances an infection results in severe outcomes, and the more we spread new COVID variants widely.

Of course, none of those collective responses are imminent, which means it’s up to each of us individually to protect ourselves and those around us. With small sacrifices, we could be safe:

• Monitor COVID in local wastewater and adjust behaviors, just as you adjust them to weather conditions.
• In periods of surges, avoid crowded indoor spaces. Opt for outdoor socializing and smaller get-togethers with safer friends in private homes. And, during surges, avoid packed, loud outdoor crowds as well. (In the past couple of months, the Glastonbury Festival, Euro 2024, and Taylor Swift concerts have been associated with notable numbers of infections.)
• At all times, choose well-ventilated, less crowded indoor spaces when possible. And wear a mask in crowded indoor spaces when convenient (such as wearing them most of the time in airports, planes, trains, buses, etc.)
• Keep up to date with your vaccines.
• Stay home when you’re sick.

Knowledge is power. There is no need for fear, but being informed, adjusting your behaviors to match risks, and taking just a little more caution can do much to keep you and your family safe from chronic damage to your health and wellbeing.

Please be well and live healthy, my friends.