Prediction: Massive Decline in Auto Sales
Peter Diamandis
688

Peter,

I’m a little confused on the math. If the average car gets 250,000 miles of life, the car sales won’t change if everyone moves to cars as a service. There will be less cars in service at any time, but they will need to be replaced much faster since they are racking up 10x the miles as a standard car today. Are you assuming that electric cars will get many more miles of service than today’s fleet? If that is the case and say they get 1,000,000 miles then there will be a quarter of the sales assuming there aren’t changes in taste that require faster vehicle turnover or no increase in demand. As we all learned in Micro Econ 101, when things get cheaper, demand increases. So is that the next implied assumption that VR/AR will be a replacement and not a complement for transportation demand and counter any induced demand from higher prices? It seems some new VR/AR products like PokemonGo are actually complements for transportation and not replacements.

Show your support

Clapping shows how much you appreciated Austin Vernon’s story.