Evolution of Stephen Strasburg

Austin Lafond
Nov 5 · 4 min read

Standing a towering 6 foot five 5 inches with a lethal fourseam fastball that would average 97 miles an hour, Stephen Strasburg was seen by many as the pitcher that would define his generation. In 2010, a little over a year in the minors, expectations were so high for the 22 year old prospect out of San Diego State University, his first start ever in a Washington Nationals uniform would find its way onto national television. The Nationals would face the Pittsburgh Pirates on a Tuesday night June 8th, 2010. In a matchup between two teams whose playoff hopes were highly unlikely at best, Strasburg would take the mound and dazzle everyone who tuned in, fanning 14 batters through 7 innings, yielding two runs off 4 hits. It was supposed to only be the beginning of Strasburg’s epic development.

9 years later, Strasburg is a 3 time All-Star and CY Young Award finalist, with a career earned run average of 3.17. Despite these high quality numbers, Strasburg was still seen as underperforming by many, due to his exceptionally high expectations. However, the 2019 postseason was a game changer, at least in terms of the perception many had of him. Through 36.1 innings, Strasburg boasted a 1.98 era, helping lead the upset minded Wild Card Nationals in series wins over the 106 win Dodgers and 107 win Astros. His postseason would conclude by being named the World Series MVP.

This past Saturday, the unlikely 2019 World Series Champion Nationals held their victory parade in D.C. What was kept under wraps until the conclusion of these festivities was that Strasburg chose to opt out of the remaining four years of his seven year $175 million contract. Shortly after, the Nationals would offer Strasburg a qualifying offer to which he has 10 days to accept or decline and become a free agent. Whether Strasburg resigns with the Nationals or not, one thing is definite: Strasburg is posting quality numbers that are quite consistent with his career, but what’s unique is how he is doing it.

2019 Strasburg has a fastball velocity that is a far cry from where it was in 2010 and because of that, he is drastically altering his pitch sequencing. Looking at Strasburg’s career when he made at least 20 starts in a season, 2012–2019, his fourseam fastball usage looks like this:

2012: 49.04%

2013: 57.59%

2014: 57.99%

2015: 62.46%

2016: 56.94%

2017: 51.88%

In 2018, Strasburg’s average fourseam fastball velocity dropped to 95.2 MPH and in 2019 it fell further to 94.3 MPH and so did his usage of the pitch.

2018: 44.93%

2019: 32.90%

What’s even more interesting in that this postseason, Strasburg would only use his fourseam fastball 22% of the time. As opposed to his heavy reliance on his fast stuff, Strasburg has invested in his secondary pitches, which hold the key to the now 31 years old’s career longevity as his heater velocity is on the decline. In it’s replacement he has relied more on three pitches. The first two are his offspeed curveball and changeup which have been rather effective his career, but the last pitch is a fastball that he has rarely turned to and for good reason, his sinker.

Though a sinker is a fastball pitch, its effectiveness does not rely on velocity. Instead, it has everything to do with placement and pitch action at the plate as it aims to chase batters to swing on top of the ball which leads to weak ground balls. Strasburg’s success rate with his sinker has been anything other than consistent, although in 2019, things are starting to change. Here is Strasburg’s usage of his sinker, again going from 2012–2019 when he has made at least 20 starts.

2012: 15.86%

2013: 3.48%

2014: 2.97%

2015: 0.79%

2016: 0.25%

2017: 6.60%

2018: 7.04%

2019: 30.77%

2019 was the first year that opponents had a batting average against his sinker that was under .300 which sat at .258. Due to Strasburg’s declining fourseam velocity, his sinker may just be the secret to remaining an upper tier starter as he gets into his mid and late 30’s.

What we all enjoyed about Strasburg when he was called up to the majors was his hard stuff that left us in awe. Now, in the latter part of his career, we might be able to appreciate a pitcher who is highly effective not for his hard stuff, but for his ability to adapt and grow into a new type of pitcher.

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade