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With more than half a dozen vaccines at advanced stages of development, it is critical to start looking at the path ahead once a vaccine gets approval for mass production. How long would it truly take for you and others to get vaccinated once an effective vaccine is developed? Let’s try to answer this question from a global supply chain perspective by exploring key challenges and possible solutions for each aspect of the supply chain.

Before jumping to key challenges and possible solutions, it is worth understanding the context and scope of the problem.

What is the Scale and Scope of the Problem when it comes to Distribution, Delivery and Administration of the vaccine?

We’re dealing with two important aspects — scale (the number of people who need to be inoculated) and speed (inoculation needs to happen almost simultaneously and as soon as possible). In terms of numbers, one or two vaccine doses are anticipated per person, immunising at least 60% to 80% of the world’s population. This means at least 5.6 billion people need inoculations.

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Have you ever made a decision that you were sure was foolproof, only to discover it had unintended consequences further down the line? A controversial example that is used to illustrate this kind of thinking is the example of a country that wanting to inspire regime change in another country, funds and provides weapons to a group of “moderate rebels.” However, in the process, those moderate rebels end up becoming powerful and then go to war with the sponsoring country for decades.

The ability to think beyond the obvious and avoid unintended consequences requires second order thinking — a powerful mental model that can radically transform our ability to make decisions. …


Avi Sarkar

Business Consultant & Startup Coach | Specialities — Org strategy & ops, business devp & growth, social finance, digital transformation, personal effectiveness.

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