A Trapper, a Kleptomaniac, and a Priest walk into a bar.
A fictional essay
Nigeria my country is not a real place. In the past 8 years we have had 2 recessions, several (alleged) mass murders by uniform-wearing officers, and lost thousands reported and probably hundreds of thousands unreported to terrorists rebranded as bandit warlords that govern regions of our sovereign state. Kidnap for ransom funds terrorist factions that routinely perform tragedy stories like prison breaks and mass shootings. These don’t cover double-digit inflation and war in several parts of the country. In countries like Nigeria, elections are generally a gamble. One cannot normally predict how things will go. For instance, who really wants to check the power of a party monopoly? Also, how does one guarantee that the leader(s) one picks on the day are who they seem to be and will follow through on what they say? Finally, do we have a wholly independent press and upright legislators?
So, why bother, why even try?
Way before the internet, we had laughter corners in most media. So you buy a newspaper and somewhere between the pages would be some outrageous cartoon indicating jokes beneath. No thank you to Twitter. If you read enough of these jokes, you will eventually find one of these types of jokes. The premise is to make an unassuming bunch, who normally would never meet each other in the entirety of their lives, have a conversation or share perspectives. As one can imagine, this conversation would be about a common subject where their differing opinions would be humorous fodder.
Well in pure fictional fashion, Nigeria has done it again, steadfast in her commitment to inspiring storytellers and artists, Nigeria has produced a very interesting set of contestants for her upcoming elections. We have at random picked three candidates, a trapper, a robber, and one whom his opposition accuses of being too saintly, a priest for further examination. Cue the music.
As a hypothetical, how would a betting man, not an analytic advantage player, but one who loves the game and wishes to win approach our elections? How should one pick their man for the race?
Records of Character and personal ability
“A leopard cannot change his spots.”
In the trapper’s corner hangs cobwebs thicker than mooring lines of corrupt conduct and state capture. Arriving on the scene, having evaded the law abroad, he proceeded to collect the most prosperous state and regional power around the state. Taking what was once an organized near utopia, comparable only to the capital, he mismanaged and neglected infrastructure while undertaking an audacious expansion of the already sprawling metropolis. Building shanty towns and cosmetic suburbs, each warped out of realistic shape by tentacles of corruption. An enigmatic mafia state where legality and illegality seat side by side, arms locked in an oxymoron of an embrace. I could list ten billion ways that city would bend you but that would ruin the story.
Another sits on his laurels of playing Judas to one of the finest leaders Nigeria has ever seen. Like an experienced and crooked foreman, he sat ringside as this leader groomed and nurtured the economy and built a model for the stability of democracy we now enjoy
Finally, we have a Nigerian politician, who began his career and succeeded in building out companies and sub-industries in the private sector. He then proceeded to fight and win on some level the invisible hand that seems to hold the fate of Nigerian communities in poverty. All this was done while fighting a corrupt and opposing legislative arm. He managed to improve the quality of life for his employers by global indexes and leave a healthy nest egg for the rainy day, by cutting costs and focusing on social and economic investment.
What are they saying?
“Out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaketh…”
It is common knowledge that it is almost impossible to hide one’s true intentions from an observing eye and listening ear. A manifesto that doesn’t seem to acknowledge and cater to the needs of a crippled country should more than inform one’s opinion on the ability of its candidate.
Personal Stamina
It should be noteworthy that one out of three profiled has made efforts to tour most of the country and connect the average Nigerian in each of those places. The campaign trail is literally an endurance race. In motorsport, the best teams produce the most durable and enduring cars, to mirror the ability of these machines to survive the harshness of repeated and run-of-the-mill use. It goes without saying that a faulty vehicle in an exhibition would probably be faulty in operation. While two of three seem to be battling maintenance and shelf life-related issues, another team seems to be touring with a tireless fervor.
Who are their friends and where lies their power
Two out of three have deep roots in the Nigerian power structure. They are well-connected to past leaders and are influential enough to be self-proclaimed “bringers of the current administration”. They brandish this title before going on to berate the same current administration that empowered and supported for being a failure. The third is well connected to some past leaders and notable business people he had to work and interact with in the past.
How popular is he ?*
Well, as far as I know, elections are a popularity contest, therefore it makes a bit of sense to consider how popular each one is.
The trapper has the support of the current political leaders all of whom are under the most powerful party, and the deceit of tribal brotherhood on his part. One can argue that he is the defacto candidate for two of three major languages in the country. He is also supported by the crutch of religion that still holds a strong influence on the electorate. Leaning heavily on the monopoly of one religion and the tribal with the second of two tribes.
The klep also has the love of two of three major languages for these reasons. He is from one of the two tribes, and his running mate is from the second of two, who have notoriously voted for his party for most of the past elections.
The clergy seems to have a large following pockets of the average young Nigerian. On the embers of the ENDSARs protests, he steadily built an online following at the beginning of the campaign season, and then exponentially by word of mouth and guerrilla campaign tactics. He may have the support of one of three tribes by tribal affiliations and some of the support of the second major religion of the country. Clearly, on popularity alone he seems to be on shaky legs, however, analysts argue that his pockets can add up to form a sizeable opposition against the other two runners.
Having decided on the leader, one would also want to consider the socio-economic factors that could influence the viability of the best man.
Who is the electorate?
We have somehow spawned a unique electorate that can be divided into these three persons and some…
James: Has strong familial and career connections to power, earns extra points if power here means the ruling party and connections mean card-carrying member. Wins the golden ticket if he has a biological relationship that is currently in “power” or was once a holder of an office.
John: Has delusions of grandeur and failed basic maths in secondary school. As such he hopes against all hope that if he screams for his candidate loud enough he will slowly but surely become like James.
Jack: A pragmatic and data-driven entrepreneur, better described as an opportunist, that is betting the farm on their thieving and sickly candidate, whom they will argue is best because they stand the best chance statistically. It doesn’t help that these fellows often have familial ties to the said candidate.
Joe: Angry, bitter, and entitled middle-aged to senior citizen. Enjoyed the best of the country and feel it's their divine right to be “kingmaker”. Has nothing to lose as he must have peaked economically.
Joseph***: A gambler, hopeful and starry-eyed that the greenhorn of a candidate performs a miracle and brings home the goods.
The Paradox of Piety
Religious: An adjective tailor-made to define the average Nigerian. Many would brandish titles, earned or bought that scream loudly their devotion to their given religions. However, given the other adjectives that commonly appear in sentences describing the Nigerian and the Nigerian experience one could argue that the display of religious engagement is probably a cover for the other adjectives.
A case in point would be a Pastor shilling a known Trapper for the highest office in the land, making arguments along the lines of “he is our brother, and as children of corn and yam, we should vote for the Gotham vigilante”.
Death is only a door
Among the reasons why many will not show up to vote, one of the most genuine would be: “what if there is violence ?”. Well, what if … Having participated in the last legal and upright protests, the #ENDSARS movement, fully conversant with the probability of danger that became reality, and learned from its aftermath, I wouldn’t fault or judge the genuine nature of this question. However, as we did in the past, I am also conscious of the danger of 8 years of bad governance and aware of the dangers of violence in a failed state. Nigerians suffer severe violence, on a genocidal scale as a result of administrative failure, and I am almost certain that on a long enough timeframe ( of 8 bad years) every single Nigerian is at similar risk of the same magnitude or worst violence than one may face on Election Day.
The voice of the people is the voice of God?
The only reason elections exist is for the illusion of a balance of power. There is no politician strong enough to withstand or resist the will of a speaking people and the only way we can protest is through the ballot.
But God cannot lie ?
Indeed He cannot in a civilized democracy. The twist here being civilized democracy doesn’t exist and democracy in its basest forms is what we practice here. So if God were to speak a leader into office it will be through the popular vote.
How can you make god a liar?
“how can anyone enter a strong man’s house and carry off his possessions unless he first ties up the strong man?”
Voter Apathy: Regardless of your choice of candidate, you undermine the election process when you avoid voting for whatever reason. Think about it, we only get a chance every 8 years to decide the flavor and themes of our story. In 2015, many of us voted for the current party by sitting at home, and here is the logic for how that works.
Rigging is usually the word that encompasses all the nastiness we can see come Election Day. Voter suppression, coercion (inducement), and intimidation are often labeled under the “Rigging” umbrella, and for clarity, we should look into all the ways “Nigerian Politicians” rig elections in order of ascending difficulty.
Vote Buying: Agents of the politician show up at polling units and pay people (cash or kind) to vote for their candidates. The obvious drawbacks would be that the success of this scheme is dependent on the virtue of the people, buying power of the politician, and the effectiveness of the election observers. For example, vote buying is unlikely to work in Lekki Phase 1 as opposed to Bariga.
Voter Intimidation: This scheme uses violence or the threat of violence to sway the voting choices of the electorate. For instance, there are videos on social media showing traditional rulers of regions in Lagos threatening residents of said regions with violence if they do not vote a particular way.
Result Manipulation: This usually comes after intimidation. Bad actors may proceed to “vote” on unused materials impersonating absent voters and diluting the genuine result pool with bogus votes. They may also destroy the results in given polling areas to achieve the above.
Institutional Malpractice: Officials in the institutions conducting and upholding the election can be persuaded to pervert the process or the results.
Having picked our favorite and considered the big factors, we must then examine the election for what it truly is. Far from the feverish high of a gamble, this is a fight for the soul of our country, and the hope of our collective future. About 8 years ago, we ceded the keys to the kingdom to wolves in sheep’s clothing and the great majority of us are currently paying for this.
As we head towards the polls, we want to (un)bind the strongman, we must hold these wise words in check, it is not enough to pick a leader and hope, we must all be responsible in picking the best, (the priest) and supporting him by showing up to vote and ensuring that your vote counts by taking responsibility for the freeness and fairness of elections at your polling unit. We must hold our heads high and march forward and onward to snatch our future from the hands of wicked and unreasonable men. We must denounce, name shame, and blacklist all perpetrators of evil. And finally, we must purposefully be our brother's keeper and ensure we encourage and incentivize at least one of our fellow citizens to do the right thing and vote, nudging them gently toward our collective interest. We must all remember, in the words of a great philosopher, “to fight to run away”****.
*Notice how women weren't included in the conversation?
** Misogyny again
***I will just skip to the end because omo x 10
****I know the ending is lame but I am tired.
