A Crypto Prediction Market on the Tron Network
When one thinks of predictions, what springs to mind is usually politics, sports and weather. But if you think about it, there are plenty of other predictions out there. Stock brokers buy and sell securities based on predictions and market sentiment. The Winklevoss twins went on a bitcoin buying spree based on a prediction that people will see value in the cryptocurrency and its price against the US Dollar will rise to the moon. Well that prediction certainly paid off.
A prediction market is a market that allows people to make predictions on outcomes of events (e.g. which political candidate will win the next elections, which sports team will win the playoffs and so on). Prediction markets are certainly not new to financial markets, think binary options, futures contracts, etc. There has been very few in the crypto and DeFi space however.
In comes Azanial Labs with their first dApp, TronPredict (https://tronpredict.com), a decentralized prediction market (deployed on the Tron Network) for predicting price movements of multiple cryptocurrencies. The idea behind TronPredict is similar to binary options, where traders predict whether the price of an asset will rise or fall, at a specific point in time. The difference is that TronPredict’s predictions follow a 3-STATE model, where users predict whether the price of an asset will 1) Rise Above a specific price, 2) Fall Below a specific price or 3) Range Between 2 specific prices. The 3-STATE model provides users with a better opportunity to be as close as possible to making a correct prediction, while also increasing the potential for higher rewards.
Predictions on TronPredict are based on 7-DAY cycles (24-HOUR cycles to be added soon), where users make predictions on the closing price (at the end of the cycle) of a specific crypto asset and stake the prediction with TRX, which is entered into a stake pool managed by the smart contract. Rewards at the end of the cycle are calculated based on the total amount of TRX in the stake pool, for a specific crypto asset within a particular cycle. At the end of a cycle, the smart contract receives closing price data (from an oracle, which in the case of TronPredict is Binance) of supported crypto assets and uses this data to determine correct and incorrect predictions on each asset. The percentage reward is calculated based on the total value of TRX in the stake pool of incorrect predictions for a specific asset against the total value of TRX in the stake pool of correct predictions, on the same asset. Users are required to withdraw their rewards, for winning predictions, at the end of each cycle (rewards are transferred from the smart contract to the user’s wallet immediately on withdrawal).
Azanial Labs hopes TronPredict will become thee prediction market on the Tron Network and is already working towards adding more cryptocurrencies, other crypto assets, non-crypto assets, adding 24-HOUR cycles and finalizing the Affiliate Program. As true believers of decentralization, TronPredict’s logic is deployed on the Interplanetary File System (IPFS).
