An examination of Brandon Marsh versus left-handed pitching
Brandon Marsh hit a two-run home run on Opening Day off Spencer Strider. So to some, it was odd that Marsh, a left-handed hitter, wasn’t in the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting lineup the next day when Max Fried, a left-handed pitcher, started for the Atlanta Braves. Marsh wasn’t in the lineup the next day either with Chris Sale, another lefty, on the bump for Atlanta.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently wrote about how the Phillies say they see Marsh as someone who has the potential to be an everyday player. But as Gelb wrote, it’s been more of a working theory that Marsh can be an everyday guy. In practice, he hasn’t been. He didn’t always play when the Phillies faced a left-handed starter in 2023 and he didn’t start against Fried or Sale last weekend.
Some people were a bit puzzled by Marsh being on the bench back-to-back days when the Phillies were set to face a pair of southpaws. Why was Marsh, a player whom the Phillies say they want to be an everyday guy who also improved against left-handed pitching in 2023, sitting against lefties in two of Philadelphia’s first three games?
For starters, players have to get eased into the everyday grind of the regular season. Marsh didn’t have a full spring training after undergoing a minor knee operation just before the start of camp. The Phillies also signed Whit Merrifield before the season. He’s a player they envision playing at least twice a week. And, as a right-handed hitter who can play left field, he’ll be put into the lineup in place of Marsh if the Phillies favor Merrifield in a certain matchup. Cristian Pache, who started in left field against Sale, has to get into games, too.
To answer the second part of the question, a deeper dive into Marsh’s numbers against left-handed pitching is needed.
Marsh was indeed better against southpaws a season ago. He posted a .188 batting average and .486 OPS against them in 2022. Last year, he batted .229 against lefties with a .717 OPS — numbers that aren’t great, but ones that are way better than the ones he put together in ‘22.
But it’s important to go deeper than that. Who were the left-handers he faced to get those improved results?
Some of them are recognizable names. He had two plate appearances against eventual National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. Marsh also faced Jesús Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Framber Valdez — some of the game’s better left-handed pitchers. He also went to the plate against guys like Hogan Harris, Lucas Luetge and Andrew Suárez. No disrespect, but those guys aren’t some of the game’s better left-handed pitchers. As of April 1, none of Harris, Luetge or Suárez were on a major league roster.
Altogether, Marsh faced 61 different left-handed pitchers last year. As of April 1, 23 of those 61 were not on a major league roster. The combined average fastball velocity of those lefties was 92.7 mph. Their combined average ERA was 4.62 (league-average ERA was 4.33 in ‘23). Against those left-handed pitchers, left-handed hitters averaged to bat .242 with a .690 OPS. The overall league average for those two statistics a season ago was .248 and .734, respectively.
So, Marsh wasn’t facing high-velocity left-handers, for the most part. Nor was he facing great run preventers. Left-handed batters weren’t bad, on average, against the left-handed pitchers Marsh faced, either. Overall, he wasn’t facing top-of-the-line lefties.
Some of the left-handers Marsh faced had reverse splits, meaning left-handed batters fared better against them than right-handed batters. Such was the case with guys like Tom Cosgrove, Reid Detmers and A.J. Minter. Marsh faced them all last year, but lefties performed better against those pitchers than righties did.
It is correct to say that Marsh improved against left-handed pitching a season ago. But the Phillies sent him to the plate against lefties that weren’t going to be tough for him to hit. His improvements against same-handed pitching, for the most part, came against guys Marsh was more likely to succeed against.
It’s not a bad thing if the Phillies don’t want Marsh facing every left-handed pitcher they go up against. Most of the league’s pitchers are right-handed anyway, so he’s going to play more often than not. Even with a two-week stint on the injured list last year, he appeared in 133 games and made 472 plate appearances. If he’s healthier this season, those numbers could rise to 145 and 500 — totals that most everyday players sit around in today’s game.
The Phillies aren’t in the business of playing guys just to play them right now. They’re in a championship window, meaning they’re in the business of winning games. Self-scouting is a key part of winning games. And right now, the Phillies don’t see Marsh as someone who can handle just about any left-handed pitcher.
If Marsh sits once or twice a week, does it matter? In terms of player development and him getting to a point where he’s the everyday player the Phillies say they envision him as, probably. The only way to get good at hitting tough lefties is to face them as much as possible. But in the grand scheme of things, no, it doesn’t really matter if Marsh sits once or twice a week in favor of matchups.
