The Judicial Meltdown

Chatting with Marc Willers — 1 February 2024

Marc Willers had looked into my proposed case against the UK government’s pursuit of GDP growth. The insights from I=PAT, the Jevons paradox, and ecological overshoot had together persuaded him that the ecological argument for economic Degrowth was compelling. A legal case might have been viable within three months of the government delivering a growth oriented budget. However, even if we were within that timescale from the latest budget, the case that I had suggested rested on a human right resolution 48/13 recognizing that a clean, healthy and sustainable environment. This resolution is apparently not binding; therefore, we both concluded that we would be wise to look for a different angle, legal or otherwise to promote the equitable economic IPAT Degrowth concept.

This article serves as a write-up of our discussion, with ideas moving forward. Marc needs time to explore his newly acquired Degrowth perspective. I could see that his mind was brimming with new ideas as we talked. I am optimistic that he can help many others in his circle to quickly acquire the IPAT Degrowth mindset. We have agreed to chat again on 5 April 2024. Several alternative legal approaches are offered below, which Marc may have the opportunity to explore in the meantime. They are summarised here:

• The Das Gupta Review 2021 — Economics of Biodiversity
• The Delusion of Negative Emissions Technologies
• UK Racism, Eugenics, and averting World War III
• COP15 UN Biodiversity Summit 2020–22

The other sections summarise our discussions about the broader implications of the mindset shift to IPAT Degrowth, and the way that it might be achieved.

The Das Gupta Review — Economics of Biodiversity

The Das Gupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity was published by HM Treasury in 2021. The review provided a comprehensive critique of growth economics, pointing out the total conflict between the UK economic model and the need to maintain biodiversity. This review may provide scope for a legal leverage point. It was produced from within the UK Treasury department itself. It would be best to ask Sir Das Gupta himself whether any of the recommendations were acted upon.

The review does address the issue of population size. Sir Das Gupta is a patron of the excellent organisation Population Matters. This organisation focuses on raising awareness about the environmental implications of family size; Sir David Attenborough, and Chris Packham are also patrons. In the review on page 32 in Section 0.4 Understanding Humanity’s Contemporary Overshoot we find this paragraph:

‘We should therefore ask whether the biosphere could support on a sustainable basis a global population of between 9.4 and 12.7 billion, which is the error bar round the UN Population Division’s population median projection of 10.9 billion for year 2100 (UNPD, 2019b) at the material standard of living we are encouraged to seek. In effect we are asked in contemporary growth and development economics and the economics of climate change to imagine that the population numbers being projected today will be able to enjoy, at the very least, the current global living standard, even while making smaller demands on the biosphere than we do currently. No study in the economics of technological change has explored whether that is possible, let alone the question of what lifestyles that would involve. As of now we should be more than circumspect that the scenario is plausible, because at least as grave a danger facing humanity as global climate change is the unprecedented rate of loss in biological diversity now taking place (Chapter 4)’

The Delusion of Negative Emissions Technologies

The ‘T’ in the I=PAT equation implies that any investment in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or any new ‘negative emissions’ technology will undoubtedly cause further ecosystems damage. For the same reason over-exploiting AI is unwise; because, like all technology, AI incurs significant ecological costs. The implementation of 5G technology comes into the same category. Both affluence and technology are tools that are currently being used in ways that are increasing our ecological debt.

The climatologist Fredericke Otto had mentioned that CCS was unrealistic during this Reuters interview at Oxford University. The comment features at 1:05:50 , when she says:

“When we talk about mitigation, mostly in the media and the public, politicians, it’s usually some dreams about future technologies and CCS and I think journalists really need to challenge that and say, the science is very clear, this is ridiculously expensive, it will never be available at the scales we needed”

There are other climatologists like Kevin Anderson who will readily concur that it is unrealistic to imagine that negative emissions technologies can help. It is important to note that the calculations in the Paris climate agreement are reliant on such technologies emerging. The inability of scientists to agree in the past quite how bad things will get, and how quickly, has exacerbated our current predicament.

The UK Committee on Climate Change are constantly criticising the government for jeopardising their commitment to the Paris climate agreement. If they can be persuaded to take a stand against the mythical negative emissions technologies, this may provide a route through to build a legal case to answer.

UK Racism, Eugenics, and averting World War III

The UK support for the war in Israel may provide a route to a legal case, for aiding a long-standing policy of racial-discrimination that has taken place since the state of Israel was established. There many Jewish voices in Israel longing to speak against the military, who fear for their lives if they speak out. Any stand against the Israeli war, will be helpful to both sides, for both sides are in torment. The situation in Israel is an example of where unwise growth economics will lead us all.

We have UK MPs encouraging an increased birth rate, whilst the UK is unwilling to make immigrants welcome. These two perspectives juxtaposed add up to racism. However, if the UK were to openly admit that we are overpopulated and that this presents a danger to us all, that would not be classified as racist or eugenics. That would be acknowledging a very severe problem that has been allowed to worsen for decades. Nigel Farage actually expresses this problem, which is helpful. My comment on this MSN article was well-received, this indicates that many in the general public are aware that we are exceeding the carrying-capacity.

However, Rwanda is another country that is also exceeding its biocapacity so redirecting immigrants to Rwanda is not a solution. Global population displacements are escalating due to climate breakdown and ecosystems collapse. The only peaceful way to prevent this is to ensure that people can subsist in their country of origin.

The UK Rwanda bill points to racist sentiments and the desire to apply eugenics. We also have the Telegraph paving the way to World War III. In the past, wars have been good for GDP growth. However, in ecosystems collapse they simply speed up our extinction event. The World4.5 demographic model predicts the rapid rise in mortality rates likely to result from continuing with our ecocidal economic model.

COP15 UN Biodiversity Summit 2020–22

The UK was one of 94 countries at the COP15 UN summit on biodiversity in September 2020, who pledged to commit world leaders to take 10 urgent actions by 2030 to reduce biodiversity loss. Actions included sustainable food production, ending the illegal wildlife trade and implementing nature-based solutions for climate change.

This entry in the UK House of Lords library had documented the commitment in 2022:

5.3 Target of protecting 30% of UK land by 2030

In September 2020, the government committed to protecting 30% of UK land by 2030. This commitment was made shortly before the UK signed up to the leaders’ pledge for nature. Signed by 94 countries at the UN summit on biodiversity in September 2020, the pledge committed world leaders to take 10 urgent actions by 2030 to reduce biodiversity loss. Actions included sustainable food production, ending the illegal wildlife trade and implementing nature-based solutions for climate change. It also included a commitment to develop and implement the GBF at COP15.

Biodiversity is a devolved matter, although the UK government has responsibility for obligations arising from international treaties and conventions. The government said it would work with the devolved administrations to agree an approach across the UK.

I am unclear about the two-year gap between the Lords record relating to COP15 in September 2020 and the COP15 event in Montreal COP15 agreement in December 2022 which seems to be a continuation of the same event pledging the same thing. I think that the COVID pandemic may have caused the COP15 biodiversity summit to have been spread over a two-year gap. The agreement in 2022 was well publicised and hailed as a significant milestone.

The Mindset Shift to Equitable Degrowth Economics

Marc had realised that the mainstream Degrowth movement appears under many euphemisms: post-growth, beyond growth, well-being. My article Degrowth for Dummies provides a little overview to the mainstream Degrowth movement.

My work extends the discussions that are underway within the emerging Degrowth movement beyond the Overton Window. The realities below are not yet fully embraced within the mainstream Degrowth movement, nor in the environmental movement:

• Humanity are in an ecological nose-dive; therefore, no-one is safe
• We need to rethink the Maslow hierarchy, because safety is a basic need
• As a species we are overpopulated and overconsuming. Humanity is consuming 1.75 Earths, the carrying capacity is about 0.5 Earths. Therefore we need to shrink the global economy by about 70% to get back within carrying capacity: 100*(1.75–0.5)/1.75
• Maximum mitigation involves minimal consumption per capita and the ambition to facilitate a global birth strike
• The UK education and legal institutions are both designed to perpetuate the current social norms, this leaves politicians powerless to steer in a different direction

I explained to Marc that I am seeing enthusiasm for discussion of these topics now emerging. In particular sustainability professionals on LinkedIn are starting to recognise how impossible their task is. My LinkedIn Newsletter is proving quite popular.

Can Art Assist?

Marc and I discussed the possible role of Arts in helping public understanding. This spoof video about CCS technology is a good example. Also, the recent series about the scandal surrounding the Horizon Post Office software opened many people’s eyes to how severe injustices can arise in a society that believes itself to be just.

There are many parallels between the Horizon scandal, and the scandal of perpetuating ecocidal growth economics. Our current socio-economic model is detrimental to the Commons for all of life on Earth. Many people are aware that our economic model is ecocidal, and yet they are trapped in a civilisation that does not allow them room to manoeuvre away from reliance on financial profits.

In the developed world, everyone has to make a financial profit in order to subsist. The Post Office workers could not just walk away from the way that they made their living; in the developed world we are all trapped into a way of subsisting where we are constantly increasing the ecological debt that we owe to Nature.

The work that I am doing with the Design for Life team within the Royal Society of Arts is a possible vehicle to steer participants into the mindset needed to remodel our education and judicial systems in a manner appropriate for achieving strategic Degrowth objectives. If an invitation were made to Marc to talk within an RSA event discussing the implications of Degrowth within the judiciary, he might well be interested. Marc and I plan to chat again on April 5 2024. I am optimistic that the collective consciousness will have progressed significantly by then.

Other Resources that are Shining a Light Forward

We all have different ways of navigating our way forward in this mindset shift. The list below includes some resources that might help readers on their own journey. The list was originally provided in my article about Raising Collective Consciousness. That article discussed the Know What You Really Are series of videos. The KWYRA series was designed to assist the viewer to think outside the box of growth economics; it comprises of two hours viewing in total.

• My own website and Medium publications will appeal to those who like a global perspective, rather than detail. My first blog entry offers a summary of my Medium articles that have been reproduced on LinkedIn to date.
• Wisocracy offers participatory discussions and discussions about the detail moving forward.
• The Hopeful Realist offers a powerful running commentary on the folly unfolding in the USA.
• Stable Planet Alliance Conversations — Podcasts Very open-minded discussions concerning overconsumption and overpopulation.
• Wellbeing Economy Alliance — these folks do not represent Degrowth, but they are doing a magnificent job of maintaining a calm process of sharing ideas within a highly aware population who aspire to achieve an economy focused on wellbeing. They also have several governments involved.

Fictional Work

For those who prefer to navigate through stories

• Ghachar Ghochar by Vikram Shanbag is a poignant story that reveals how money can so easily corrupts the most genuine and honest person.
• The Nee Nae fictional series consists of 3 dystopian science fiction stories about human overpopulation and ecosystems collapse.

Non-fiction Book Recommendations

Awaken the Soul, Release the Spirit: Danby, Peter Offers a gentle introduction to raised consciousness

Lifting the Latch by Sheila Stewart — This is an exceptionally powerful biography about the potential strength of the bond between man and Nature. Unfortunately the language will be challenging even for native English speakers, for it is written in the local Oxfordshire accent of the twentieth century. My in-laws spoke this way, and I struggled to understand my father-in-law when we first met. Mont Abbott, who is the subject of this biography had some huge emotional challenges in his life; he had a delightful off-hand turn of phrase about dealing with such challenges and continuing with his life in a positive way; by saying simply: ‘us got over it’.

Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World : Hickel, Jason The definitive book reflecting mainstream Degrowth thinking

Doughnut Economics | Kate Raworth Also part of mainstream Degrowth, although it does not clearly state the need for Degrowth

More Radical Thinking and Perspectives

James Morrow has been my mentor and emotional support during the painful early years from 2019 when I was developing my wordsmith skills, and struggling to learn how I might help in this mindset shift. His blog material and Twitter feed may help you. If you are mystified by his material, don’t worry, because most people are.

Values — An Economist’s Guide to Everything that Matters by Mark Carney please use the reviews to decide if this is for you. I have not read it, but James has recommended it, and the title looks promising.

Feeling and Knowing: Making Minds Conscious by Antonio Damasio Quite challenging concepts, only recommended if the write-up draws you in.

Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence by James Bridle I found this book a worthwhile struggle, like the previous book ‘Feeling and Knowing’; both were recommendations from James.

Saving Us From Ourselves — Can we repair 50 years of ecological overshoot? Barbara Williams My own book presents ideas that would be feasible within a highly aware and motivated population; it is free to download from my website.

Decentralised Civilisation by Reed Kinney The language and format is a little challenging. Reed Kinney is close to the indigenous mindset. I am sure many of the ideas in this book are valuable. It is free to download.

Hopeful Realism by Robert MacNeil Christie This author’s writing resonates with the Degrowth message, and is likely to appeal very much to the American audience, once they wake up.

Do Childfree People Have Better Sex?: A Feminist’s Journey in the Childfree Movement by Verena Brunschweiger I learnt much about the sex-industry, and the problems with the patriarchal society in Germany from this book. I am not a feminist, my science paper talks a little about improving relationships in general. I hope to do further work in this area.

Surfaces and Essences — Analogy as the Fuel and Fire of Thinking by Douglas Hofstadter & Emmanual Sander This is on my ‘must read’ list since it is recommended by my friend James Morrow. The write up looks promising, I don’t think it will be as challenging as some of his other recommendations.

Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy by Henry Farrell, and Abraham Newman Another recommendation from James, I possibly won’t read it. I am guessing that it reveals the sordid financial dealings in our financial world; important for those who naively believe that countries like the USA are above corruption.

Rescuing Democracy by Paul E Smith The author of this book approached me. He has given serious thought as to how democracy might be restructured to ensure that we vote in a way that is wise for the longer term. The methods that he suggests would need to be tested to establish whether they are fit for purpose. If we ever decide that now is the time for economic Degrowth, then all this research might be helpful.

Sand Talk: How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World by Tyson Yunkaporta The writing style is easy, but the concepts are deep into indigenous thinking, and are consequently rather inaccessible to a lower-consciousness mind like my own. Tyson confirmed my own experience of intimate relationships, when he claimed that the men only work in order to make their woman or women happy. I hope to help to heal this type of tragic misunderstanding between the genders, and help humanity to work towards a much more mutually enjoyable understanding in the future. The higher-level of consciousness is reflected in indigenous understanding. This book should help any affluent person to stretch their grasp of their surroundings, so long as they are willing to be stretched.