Interesting read! I think it’s hard to make very robust assumptions about the probabilities associated with each cell in the table. By instinct/word of mouth, I think the odds Angels face are worse than what the CB Insights data suggests. Wouldn’t you say?
There is also a simplifying assumption that there are no liquidation preferences. Once you bring those back in and other terms, the picture for the last investor before the Exit starts to look a lot better.