Some thoughts on a Bear market

It is obviously and commonly recognized that , this is a bear market but not a correction. Previously there has been an ongoing debate about whether the market will go down or already found a bottom. I would like to point out some important points together and try to paint a bigger picture.

The nature of the bear market

If you examine the nature of the bear market, you need to compare it with previous bear markets.

As you can see, there is a distinction between bear markets and corrections. Corrections do occur in a much shorter time period with a less % loss and the bull market continues.Only one bear market that started 30 Nov 2017 lasted for 411 days. This is noticeably longer than any other corrections. Considering that we are now on 188th day of the bear market.The depth of the correction was %87. We are already down %70 from the top. I am not sure if we will see %87 down of the latest top but there is another Technical Analysis rule that says we might see %80 down from the top, which is 4.000 usd per BTC

What is that Technical Analysis rule , then?

Technical Analysis says that, when any asset performs in a Parabolic structure. It will suffer most of it and will face a nasty %80 correction for that.

So , this rule says, we might see 4.000 usd per BTC.

About the sentiment of the Bear Market;

I would like to stress out how a typical ending of a bear market. It is typical that at the moment Bear Market ends;

The market sentiment has been negative for a long period of time. The participants, the influencers, the technical analysts, fundamental analysts all agree that bear market has more to come.

This is almost the case for some time, the fear and greed index has not seen any sign of positive expectation for so long

It has been hovering around mildly negative to Extreme Fear .

So, if we assume that we will hit %80 down and it will take another 6 months to do so, another 6 months spent in fear, might fill up the fuel for the next bull run.

Now, I would also like to look at some “why”s, the market is still heading south.

• One obvious case was the enormous parabolic rally of BTC, and the technical analysis suffering after that ( told above)
• Another obvious case was the never ending selling of Mt Gox Trustee. I am highly suspicious about the execution of those selling. I am almost sure that someone made some good money on that. Time will probably let us know , what has happened behind the closed doors.
• One reason was regulations and regulators. The enormous rally of BTC finally , made BTC noticeable by the authorities and regulations was inevitable.
• The hacks of Exchanges
• The misery of Tether , Bitfinex and the %100 backing of Tether by fiat.
• the time lag of price appreciation of crypto and real life adoption

These are the possible factors that might be drowning BTC price down so lets take a look at these factors one by one:

• The Technical rule, we are almost there maybe another sell of might clear it.
• MT GOX case is finally solved and , there won’t be any other supply side pressure from Mt GOX
• I think, Japan and Canada will lead the way to regulations. SEC also announced the road map for it so , it is about to be solved.
• The hacks, yeah, and Bithumb, come on !!! We need decentralized exchanges. NOW! Binance, come on!! Decentralized exchanges will also relieve us from regulatory pressures.
• The misery is still there about Tether. Few days ago, a LAW FIRM, announced that TETHERs are backed by dollars. Satisfactory? Neahh. It would be nice if a Auditing company says so. I think, the ongoing negativity on markets is still lying here. There might be something here. A last negative news that might trigger the Exhaustive selling.

Don’t forget, Bear Markets generally end with an Exhaustive selling days. These exhaustive selling days scare the shit out the last holders. The markets will find the dip on , on going extreme fear days, a exhaustive selling day. Everybody will be so negative that ,no one will believe “the bull story” for a long time.

It seems, we have all come down to finalize this bear market with such days.

So , briefly, it is almost too late to be bearish and take short positions against BTC but it may be a bit too premature to be bull.

Also keep in mind that , 2013 bear market lasted for 411 days, and we are in 188th day of the bear. So, we might still spend some days up and down, trying to figure out where are we headed.

I believe, crypto will survive, I believe all bears end in the end and bulls always win. I wrote these just to give you where are we located at the bear market, and what we might see , so that you are mentally prepared and keep your coins and tokens.