Trump v Biden: who has the advantage? A dive into swing-state voter registration statistics
This is the season when political pundits dig into the details of what it will take to win each state in the upcoming general election. Gone are the topline national polls showing a candidate up or down — now, it’s math time. As both campaigns vigorously calculate their way to 270 electoral votes, I felt an analysis into the voter registration statistics of certain various swing states could give some indicators of the movement of the electorate.
Not all states record voter registration statistics by party. In addition, some states with partisan registration have “open” primaries, whereas other primaries are “closed” to voters not registered to that party at the time of the balloting. However, a look at the changes in party registration can nonetheless indicate whether a major partisan shift is occurring.
Methods
Beginning with a list of the “toss-up” states on the RealClearPolitics electoral map, six toss-up states recorded registration by party: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The remaining toss-up states did not record party and were thus excluded.
Active voter registration statistics were compiled by party at the 2012 general election, the 2016 general election, and the most recent data available for the 2020 general election.
“Other” encompasses all other registrants, including minor parties and nonaffiliated voters.
Partisan advantage is noted as “D” or “R” + the percentage advantage over the other party — e.g., R+4 indicates a Republican advantage of 4% over the Democrats. Changes since 2012 and since 2016 were calculated.
Analyzing the data over time and measuring trends over time helps me to make educated guesses about the outcome in each state. The shift in voter registration statistics indicates a change in the mood of the voter that would involve interacting with election officials. Unlike a public opinion survey, voter registration statistics are “hard” data of how a person who intends to vote in an election views their personal political persuasion.
Results
Overall, the voter registration statistics by party give an indication of the makeup of each state’s electorate. A tabulation of party statistics and election results is given below.
Arizona has had the largest shift toward the Democratic Party since 2012, with most of the shift occurring after the 2016 election — perhaps a backlash to the Trump Administration in that state, but more likely a surge in Democratic registrations from voters who may have voted for President Obama or Hillary Clinton and wanted to “make it official.” While Trump carried the state with 1.25 million votes in 2016, this was almost the same amount of votes received by John McCain in 2008 (1.23 million), while Democratic vote totals have increased from 1.03 million to 1.16 million during the same period.
Pennsylvania and North Carolina have seen the largest shifts in advantage toward the Republican Party, with Democrats still holding heavily-reduced registration advantages over the Republicans. Iowa and Nevada have negligible shifts in registration, with the electorate in Iowa becoming more partisan (63% registered to one of the two parties over 58% in 2012). Nevada’s electorate has not changed since 2016, with Democrats entering election day with a D+6 advantage in registration.
Analysis of the shift in the behavior of each state’s voters gives us the estimates I make on final outcomes:
1. Arizona: No state has been more challenging to the Trump campaign than Arizona. The voter registration advantage has receded from R+6 in 2012 to R+3 today (R+5 at the time of the 2016 election). Arizona Democrats elected Kyrsten Sinema to the US Senate in 2018 and have a better-than-not chance of electing a second Democrat (Mark Kelly) this fall. After a large surge in Other registrations between 2012 and 2016 (+11%), the solidification of the Democratic base in Arizona seems to be from nonaffiliated voters shifting to Democratic Party, and not a loss in Republicans overall. The D+2 shift in registration could indicate that Trump carries Arizona, 48% to 47%, making this one of the closest states in the 2020 election.
2. Florida: The same phenomenon that is occurring in Arizona — the shift of nonaffiliated voters to the Democratic Party — is occurring in reverse in the Sunshine State. With a D+5 advantage in 2012, President Obama won the state with 1% of the vote. The registration advantage has receded to D+2, with unaffiliated voters making the difference since 2012. Trump carried the state with D+3 advantage in 2016, with no movement in the Republican electorate (35%) from 2012 to today. If the Republican vote holds in Florida, it will be difficult for the Biden campaign to make up the difference. If voter registration statistics affirm the behaviors of 2020 voters, Trump should carry the state, 49% to 47%.
3. Iowa: The Hawkeye State is the only state on this list to increase registration in both parties, owing to the whopping 42% of unaffiliated voters registered in 2012. Iowa is also the state to see the largest swing from one party to the other between 2012 and 2016, with an R+15 swing recorded in official results. Most of this swing (10%) was due to a collapse in support for Hillary Clinton (42%) relative to Barack Obama (52%). While there is no partisan shift in registration since 2016, it is notable that the shift recorded in the last election cycle was only R+1. With a more suitable candidate, Democrats may have had a shot at winning here. However, with Biden’s disastrous fifth-place showing in the caucuses, it appears that the Democrats are not seriously contesting Iowa this season and that Trump will likely win again, 51% to 46%.
4. Nevada: The Democrats have lost some ground in Nevada since 2012, giving up net 1% advantage in registration. Most of this shift was due to voters from both parties non-affiliating in the time from 2012 to 2016. While President Obama won Nevada with 52% of the vote in 2012, Hillary Clinton only garnered 48% of the vote, while Republican turnout remained steady. With a D+6 electorate, Joe Biden should win Nevada, 50% to 46%.
5. North Carolina: No state on this list has seen a starker change in net Republican support than North Carolina. But strangely enough, this is not due to the addition of Republican voters. While North Carolina was won by President Obama in 2008, the state reverted back to its typical Republican pattern in 2012. At the time, the registration advantage was D+12 (43% D). Today, the advantage is D+6 (36% D), with almost all of the shift coming from voters since the Obama era switching parties from Democratic to nonaffiliated. The surge in Democratic support enjoyed by Barack Obama in 2008 has long dissipated, as 47% D registration in 2008 has settled at 36% today, Given past trends, Trump should win this state over Biden, 50% to 44%.
6. Pennsylvania: With an advantage of D+12, President Obama won the state with 5% of the vote. Trump managed to win the state with a D+10 advantage. Registration statistics for Democrats are less favorable today (47%) than at the time of the 2016 election (48%). Current registration advantage is D+8, with the shift in registration R+4 since 2012 — nearly all of the Obama margin that year. Even more interesting in this state’s statistics is that the Democratic vote share in 2016 (47%) was lower than the share of registered Democrats (48%) — the only state on this list with such a phenomenon in the past two elections. If past behavior is indicative of how voters will make their decisions, Trump should be well-positioned to carry this state, 49% to 46%.
Conclusions
If current trajectories hold, the 2020 election could be a repeat upset that, like 2016, was apparent to those who could see the ground shift. If unaffiliated voters break largely for Biden, that could indicate a backlash against Trump specifically — a case the Biden campaign has been attempting to make for months. But in every state analyzed except for Arizona, the trend in registrations has not seen a decrease in Republican advantage, which would be expected in the data prior to an election where the Democratic nominee blows out the Republican. Except for Arizona, the opposite seems to be true — a small, but notable increase in Republican advantage in the most prized contests. If this method of analysis is a valid way to read the tea leaves, Donald Trump is on his way to a second term as president.
