Powering up collective intelligence: How to use the Futures Wheel to explore futures possibilities

Clara
3 min readOct 9, 2024

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Ever thought about the future and felt limited by today’s constraints? The future can feel daunting, especially when we rely solely on what we know now. That’s why I like to flip the script.

Image from 2020 Design Futures Training, Institute for the Future.

In my latest workshop at Collegial, we embraced a framework coined by The Institute for the Future called future-back thinking. Instead of predicting the future based on our present, we imagine ourselves in the future first and work backward. This shift frees us from today’s biases and opens up space for creativity and innovation.

Collegial people getting ready for the Futures Wheel.

There are many tools to explore futures, but one of my absolute favorites is the Futures Wheel. My brain is really wired to create structures, so maybe that’s why I love teaching and using this tool.

🤹‍♀️ Enter the Futures Wheel!

Think of it like playing a game or navigating the Marvel multiverse. One decision leads to multiple outcomes, creating a series of alternate timelines. It’s a great way to imagine best and worst-case scenarios or uncover unexpected ripple effects.

The Wheel’s Structure:

  1. Middle Circle: Start with the decision, intention, or trend you are analyzing.
  2. 2nd Ring: Explore the direct impacts of that decision.
  3. 3rd Ring: Identify the indirect consequences from those first impacts.
Futures wheel from https://futurescouting.com.au/futures-wheel/

This method lets us create futures without being limited by today’s reality — kind of like unlocking a new multiverse!

🗓️ Why Think 10 Years Ahead?

When using the Futures Wheel, it’s important to think about the world as it could be 10 years into the future. Why 10 years? This timeframe is distant enough to let you break free from today’s limitations.

Just as the world looks vastly different today than it did 10 years ago, projecting far into the future helps open up possibilities without the constraints of current trends or technologies. It invites bold thinking and creativity. It’s not about predicting what will happen exactly, it’s about imagining new futures beyond what we know today.

🗣️ So, how do we get practical?

In our session, we focused on identifying combined impacts where different consequences overlap. That’s where you’ll often find the most insightful opportunities.

Sometimes participants tend to focus too heavily in one direction when filling out the Futures Wheel. To avoid this, we used our company’s key areas (Customer Success, Learning Experience, Marketing, Product, Sales and Tech) to envision the future within each of our core departments.

However, you can also take a broader approach by exploring deeper levels of impact. A great way to do this is by segmenting the Futures Wheel into six sections and assigning each part to a letter of PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental). This framework helps you systematically think through and capture the potential consequences across different dimensions. Segmenting the wheel encourages a more balanced, comprehensive exploration of the future.

Playing with the Futures Wheel Collegial template on Miro.

🛠 Ready to try it?

Here are the steps to build your own Futures Wheel:

  1. Start with the central circle and define the change or event (e.g., new policy, product, service, organizational shift, trend).
  2. Write down immediate effects (1st order).
  3. Map out the indirect impacts (2nd order).
  4. Think about long-term, combined consequences (3rd order).
  5. Discuss! The most powerful insights come from collaboration.

Want to give it a try? Here’s the Futures Wheel Template we used.

Futures Wheel Template | Miroverse

Let your imagination run wild!

The future is created now and shaped by the stories we write — let’s get started!

#FuturesThinking #Innovation #ImaginationUnleashed #StrategicForesight #FuturesWheel #DesignThinking #InnovationGame

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Clara
Clara

Written by Clara

I'm a full-spectrum product designer with a knack for connecting dots - whether they're people, ideas, or technologies.

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