Leeds United: A Season Preview
With just days left until the beginning of the Premier League season, it’s time to look at the year ahead for Leeds United, what could be in store, how they’ve prepared for it, and the all important question; how many Leeds players are you getting in your fantasy team?
The Year Ahead
As with every year, the league appears to be much stronger than the season prior. Even worse; Norwich are back down in the Championship, which means that Leeds fans don’t even have them as a comfort blanket of being beneath them.
Nottingham Forest are the team to replace them after winning promotion via the play-offs, but seem to have had an almost miraculous summer window, with some fantastic signings leaving people bewildered and believing they will trump the likes of Leeds to retain their Premier League status in May next year.
Many are really tipping Leeds to go down. Many Leeds fans think otherwise. Do we know better? Of course we do. We always do.
For the complexion of the rest of the bottom half of the table, which is realistically where we are looking in terms of Leeds, it’s going to be as competitive as ever. Fulham, Brentford and Crystal Palace have all made smart signings as they worry about being dragged into the all-out, dirty relegation brawl Leeds found themselves in for the majority of last season (in all fairness, the latter were never really there).
But, importantly, so have Leeds. And they have done it in a summer where they lost their two best players, there can be no debate. While it may all be trivial, Leeds have spread the cost of those two players across the whole team and have improved effectively.
The three teams promoted (Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth), may seem an easy bet to head straight back down. However, as I have mentioned, Forest have had a superb summer so far, and Fulham proved last year that they were one of the greatest ever Championship sides. These will be more tough fixtures for Leeds.
Southampton are still likely to be in-and-around the bottom quarter of the league, also. It seemed as though towards the end of last season Ralph Hasenhüttl may move on, however this never materialised, yet they aren’t showing many signs of progression, and this stagnation is something Leeds have to capitalise on if they are going to avoid a similarly disastrous campaign.
On the topic of stagnation, Everton have also struggled to do any significant business, except the sale of their star forward, Richarlison. Tarkowski on a free transfer is a good signing, but relying on Calvert-Lewin up front is simply too risky, and could cost them. Their only other signing is £20 million Dwight McNeil. Uninspiring.
Furthermore, Lampard is not a proven manager, and has even been voted by the fans as the first manager to be sacked, and Everton fans have gone on record to state they are the least optimistic of all fans in the league for next season (from a SkyBet survey).
You can expect Brentford to have a more difficult season, and I’m sure they will be more amongst the relegation candidates. The loss of Eriksen is bound to hurt them significantly, but they have done some good business.
After losing out to Leeds for the signing of Danish full-back Kristensen, Brentford brought in Aaron Hickey from Bologna. They also signed Lewis-Potter on a seven-year deal from Hull and Ben Mee arrived on a free.
Overall, the landscape of the bottom-half of the table has changed, but Leeds are still expected to be in the thick of it. The question remains for the year ahead; have they strengthened more than those around them? And, more importantly, will they work in Marsch’s system?
The Squad
You would not be wrong in stating this summer has seen the biggest overhaul in a Leeds squad for years. Bielsa was known for minimal change, however this season that strategy has been thrown out the window, as Radrizzani, Orta and Marsch rejuvenate the squad in the hope that we do not find ourselves in a similar position at the final game of next season.
As demonstrated above, Leeds have been extremely active this summer.
After spending in excess of £100m, we find ourselves with a new full-back, four new central-midfielders, and a new winger (or wide ‘10’ as Marsch described).
First of all, central-midfield is a position we had been desperate for. It is well-documented our previous transfer venture in this role (Adam Forshaw, 2018).
Well, finally, Leeds fans’ cries have been answered by Orta in assured fashion. In comes Roca, Adams, Aaronson (yes we can count him), and Gyabi for a combined cost of £60 million.
The Phillips-shaped whole left in our midfield is a something nobody would like to be tasked with, so the responsibility seems to be shared between both Roca and Adams.
Roca’s precise and extensive passing range, paired with Adams industrial defensive work, Marsch hopes to integrate into his system with two deeper midfielders.
Aaronson’s busy and tiresome work ahead of them, linking with the striker could prove to be effective, and replacing the potentially outgoing Rodrigo as he looks to secure his place at the World Cup (Rodrigo? At the World Cup?). After an impressive pre-season, including setting three goals up against Cagliari at the weekend, Aaronson certainly makes it into my fantasy team. There are yet no other Leeds representatives, however.
Our next vital area of improvement was the full-backs. With Ayling, Dallas and Firpo all starting the season injured, plus the sale of Leif Davis, Leeds would begin the season with just one fit, out-and-out full-back (Codey Drameh) had they not invested.
But, invest they did, and in came Rasmus Kristensen from RB Salzburg. A machine on the right handside, Rasmus looks to be a huge threat down the wing as his attacking impetus is clearly his biggest asset. A huge improvement, you would think, to last season’s full-back woes.
The arrivals continued, as Luis Sinisterra passed Raphinha at the door, and we welcomed our new South American winger.
Sinisterra boasts terrific goal contributions over the last year, and looks a dangerous and exciting player. Similar to Adams, however, are the boots left by Raphinha too big to fill? Only time will tell.
Speaking of Raphinha, he spearheads Leeds’ departures for this summer, with him and Kalvin Phillips both leaving to play Champions League football at two of the world’s biggest clubs; Barcelona and Manchester City.
Both Kalvin and Raphinha have played a huge part in maintaining Leeds’ Premier League status over the past two years, particularly the latter who almost single-handedly dragged the team from moments of despair last year.
While we have recruited well and efficiently, replacing, on paper, the gaps left in the team by these two, it is still important not to underestimate how important they were to this team. As I said, Raphinha shone brighter than anyone last year, and the absence of Kalvin (along with Bamford) could be a large reason as to why we were down in the position we were in the first place.
There are still areas for improvement, as it has been reported that Marsch is still wanting a new left-back and striker to complete his squad, and Orta has thrown bids onto some European tables. It does seem, however, that it is unlikely for any incomings before the Premier League kicks off.
I do believe the squad is more filled out and the board have spread the cost of these two players across the whole team meaning the quality should spread out too, but the loss of Kalvin and Raphinha could hurt us. It means that Sinisterra and our new central-midfield partnership need to hit the ground running, and pick up where, in particular Raphinha, left off.
Leeds’ Preparation
Preparation was not haulted by any end-of-season holidays at Leeds, as Aaronson was announced just four days after confirmation of their survival, and began the summer overhaul.
In next-to-no time, it seemed, Leeds began their preparation for the Premier League season with a string of pre-season fixtures.
After a comfortable 4–0 win vs Blackpool to begin, Leeds jetted out to Australia for their pre-season tour.
A mixture of results followed, as Leeds beat Brisbane Roar 2–1, lost at the hands of Villa 1–0 and drew against Palace 1–1.
Leeds then returned home, and walloped Cagliari 6–2, in a thrilling encounter, as far as pre-season goes anyway.
It was a great chance to see some of the new signings in action, and, more importantly, for the new arrivals to find how they will fit and grow into the system(s) that Marsch is integrating on the rest of the side.
Speaking of the system, how is Marsch looking at lining up?
In the highly complex diagram shown above, this appears to be the system Marsch is preferring — 4–2–3–1, where the number 10 (or in this case 7) has the freedom to roam in the half-spaces behind the striker. Aaronson has played in this role during pre-season, but also out wide to accommodate for… Rodrigo through the centre.
Marsch’s use of wingers in this system is highly noticeable. He did experiment with the use of inverted wingers towards the end of last season with little success, and reverted to wide wingers for the final games of the season against Brighton and Brentford.
It seems as though Marsch is going back to this idea, playing with narrow wingers to allow the overlap from the full-backs.
Leeds have recruited for this role in Sinisterra, whose goal contributions in the Eredivese came from cutting inside on the left-wing.
Not the conventional winger (in which you may imagine stays wide and delivers the ball into the box), but he seems his most dangerous in this role. Similarly, Jack Harrison has the potential to be deployed on the right-wing, as a left-footer.
For this system, it is important for the full-backs to give the width. With Kristensen I am confident, as he has shown in pre-season, he has the ability to do so.
For this reason, it is also important to have a deeper midfield, Roca and Adams, who can cover for the onrushing full-backs if they are caught upfield. This was an area Phillips was fantastic in, and in this system it is even more important they can do this.
This is also why it may also be important to have left and right-footed centre-backs who are comfortable defending on the flanks. As the midfielder drops centrally, the defence may shift to one side to cover for the high full-backs (i.e. Koch shuffles across to right-back as Adams slots in through the centre).
It has also been noticed that, when Leeds have the ball, the full-backs are pushed high up the field to provide the width, and Roca has tended to drop between the centre-backs to provide the passing range to start an attacking move. Adams tends to be slightly further up the pitch.
Overall, it’s a slightly different system for the side to get used to. It appears the recruitment has been tailored for this system, with deep midfielders, full-backs with high attacking output and Aaronson to operate off the striker.
Aaronson could be a really important signing, too. As someone who has played in multiple Marsch systems, Aaronson can play out wide and in-and-around the striker — he could be a crucial signing.
Fixtures
Another important aspect of every season is the fixture list.
Leeds’ opening fixtures are relatively kind, especially in comparison with previous seasons (last year they were trounced 5–1 away at Old Trafford on the opening day, and lost 4–3 at Anfield the year prior).
In Southampton and Everton, Leeds play the two teams that finished directly above them last year, and Wolves ended last season with a whimper.
Brighton is always a tough gig for Leeds, however, and the Chelsea fixture speaks for itself. Overall though, it’s a good start for Leeds, and they need to take advantage of this and start the season well. They have some favourable and winnable fixtures and they need to pick up at least a win or two before they head into September.
But, as the cliche goes, there are no easy games in this league, and certainly no guaranteed points.
Due to the winter World Cup, the Premier League has been forced into cramming fixtures in around it. October poses a difficult and busy few weeks, with trips to Selhurst Park, the King Power and Anfield.
Fulham is a must-win game, and if we can come out of October with a win and two draws I think we can all be very happy.
The season will be longer than last, and will come to a close at the end of May, as Leeds host Spurs, a fixture that last season saw the end of Bielsa’s tenure.
The rest of the month is no easier. It would be hoped that, when May comes around, Leeds have all but confirmed their Premier League status. However, this may not be the case.
If not, Leeds may have to pick up points away at reigning champions Man City, a team hugely on the rise in Newcastle, away at the ‘top 6’ biggest threat, West Ham, and ending it with Spurs, who are predicted to have a fantastic season. Tough.
With that being said, no-one can predict the shocks and suprises that arise from a relegation dogfight, and, if we are to be in one, let’s hope we can pull one out of the bag.
The end of the season doesn’t look quite as rosy as the start, though, that’s for sure.
The Opener
Leeds kick off their campaign at home this Saturday against Wolves.
A team that had a topsy turvy season prior, they began the season fantastically, with Bruno Lage receiving plenty of (deserved) plaudits.
However, the wheels briefly fell off for Wolves, as they encountered a tough run of seven games without a win at the end of the season.
A team that has struggled for goals in recent times, Wolves are to be without striker Raul Jiminez for the start of the season, and have also failed to strength in the forward positions. Pedro Neto is due to return from injury after a distastrous campaign last year, in which he only managed thirteen appearances, and they have made the permanent transfer of Hwang Hee Chan for £15 million, whom they had on loan for the previous season.
Wolves’ only other summer signing, Nathan Collins, arrived from relegated Burnley for a large fee of £20 million — I think this definitely falls into the ‘risky’ category. A large sum for a young defender from a relegated side — and I’m sure Leeds fans won’t forget his handball on the final day of the season gave Newcastle the lead, in turn keeping Leeds in the league.
For Leeds, there are plenty of new signings that are expected to go straight into that starting eleven. Roca, Kristensen, Aaronson and Adams are all expected to start, with Sinisterra also an option however has racked up significantly less minutes than others on the pre-season tour and therefore may be not be deemed fit yet.
I think this is a really good first game for Leeds, a side that finished last season on relegation form, a side who have done little summer business to improve and they’re facing some important injury issues. Furthermore, key players like Ruben Neves expected to leave in the summer, in a deal that never materialised and may be looking elsewhere.
Wolves are not the team that they were when they were promoted, and Leeds have a great chance to start the season right and, while this is a tough team, it is a team that really struggle to score goals — until they are against our defence of course.
I’m going 2–0 to Leeds.
Predictions
Who doesn’t love an inaccurate prediction?
I believe Leeds will have a better season than last. Their strengthening across the pitch has led to us being a better side than the season prior and, despite huge losses in Kalvin and Raphinha, should equate to better results.
We have improved our side more than others around, and while nobody is expecting us to challenge for anything, a comfortable 14th place would be a great finish for us and where I think we can be.
The loss of Raphinha’s game-winning moments does still have the potential to cost us, but with a fit Bamford, an explosive Sinisterra and a cute and tricky Aaronson, I hope we are able to replace that.
Of course, this could all backfire and Marsch could be gone by Christmas (he is the second favourite to leave first). But I prefer the lighter and optimistic tone.
More than anything, I’m sure we are all excited to see Premier League football back. It has felt like an eternity. Hopefully there is much more joy and delight in 2022/23 for us Leeds fans than last year.
Thank you for taking the time to read this.