NBA Draft 2018 Big Board
I don’t have any prior scouting experience, but there’s a first time for everything. I wanted to get my thoughts down on paper of what I think about this draft class so that I can either laugh at or applaud myself a few years down the road.
I broke my board down into tiers like any draft expert does. Rankings within the tiers should definitely be noted, but they are also somewhat fluid. For example, I think Kevin Knox (tier 4) is a better prospect than Collin Sexton (also tier 4), but there isn’t a ton of separation. I do see a lot of separation between each tier, however.
Tier 6: Second round fliers
I didn’t bother to rank these guys, but they are my favorite players worthy of a second-round pick
Dzanan Musa — Wing, Cedevita
Jevon Carter — Point, West Virginia
Jalen Brunson — Point, Villanova
Aaron Holiday — Point, UCLA
Khyri Thomas — Guard, Creighton
Bruce Brown — Guard, Miami
Anfernee Simons — Guard, IMG Academy
Omari Spellman — Big, Villanova
Jarred Vanderbilt — Big, Kentucky
Devonte’ Graham — Point, Kansas
Svi Mykhailiuk — Wing, Kansas
Tier 5: Rotation player/low-end starter potential
Definition: players who project as having defined but limited roles if they hit their median outcome
31. Melvin Frazier — Wing, Tulane
30. Elie Okobo — Point, Pau Orthez
29. Gary Clark — Forward, Cincinnati
28. Kenrich Williams — Forward, TCU
27. Jerome Robinson — Guard, Boston College
26. Landry Shamet — Guard, Wichita State
25. Shake Milton — Wing, SMU
24. Keita Bates-Diop — Forward, Ohio State
Tier 4: Solid starter potential
Definition: players with unique and translatable skills that could wind up getting starting jobs
23. Troy Brown — Wing, Oregon
Why he’s ranked here: Brown is a 6'7 point forward who has some nice defensive potential. The key will be his unproven jump shot.
22. Josh Okogie — Guard, Georgia Tech
Why he’s ranked here: Okogie has crazy measurements for a 2-guard and good skills in a vacuum (shooting, handle, athleticism). His feel for the game is subpar.
21. Chandler Hutchison — Wing, Boise State
Why he’s ranked here: Hutchison is a late bloomer who looks like a scoring NBA wing. If he keeps improving at the rate he did in college, he could be good.
20. Collin Sexton — Point, Alabama
Why he’s ranked here: Sexton is a discount John Wall who attacks every possession and goes hard on both ends of the court.
19. Jacob Evans — Wing, Cincinnati
Why he’s ranked here: Evans shot well from deep at Cincy and played smart, hard defense. If he can replicate that in the NBA he will be valuable.
18. De’Anthony Melton — Guard, USC
Why he’s ranked here: Melton is a great defensive prospect with length, instincts and motor. Offensively he hasn’t proved much, but an improved spot-up jumper could be the key to unlocking his potential.
17. Lonnie Walker IV — Guard, Miami
Why he’s ranked here: Walker was a high-level prospect out of high school who got lost in Miami’s seemingly endless guard rotation. There is still hope for Walker given his solid 2-guard size and offensive repertoire.
16. Mitchell Robinson — Big, Chalmette High School
Why he’s ranked here: Robinson has about zero relevant film from high school because he was just so much bigger and more athletic than everyone else. If the year was 2005 he might go first overall, but for now he is a tantalizing high risk, high reward big man.
15. Kevin Knox — Wing/Forward, Kentucky
Why he’s ranked here: Knox showed off great shooting ability for a 6'9 guy, and that alone could get him drafted in the lottery. I’m not sold on his creation or defensive abilities, though.
14. Robert Williams — Big, Texas A&M
Why he’s ranked here: Williams probably should have left after one year in College Station, but one year later he’s still the same player: a huge body with quick feet suited to defend in the modern NBA.
13. Kevin Huerter — Wing, Maryland
Why he’s ranked here: Huerter is remarkably similar to Klay Thompson in playing style, but he will need to fill out his frame to reach his potential as a sharpshooter with plus defense.
Tier 3: High-level starter/some All-Star potential
Definition: players who have some semblance of outlier skill/physical attributes that could make them top-40 players eventually
12. Zhaire Smith — Wing, Texas Tech
Scouting notes: The best athlete in the draft. Can jump out of the gym and glides around the court with ease. Jump shot has decent mechanics (impressively so for a guy that played center in high school), but not a consistent or versatile shooter in any capacity. Very basic handle, poor technique on drives. Great offensive rebounder. Always attacking/around the rim. Didn’t get much run as a ball-handler in Texas Tech’s offense, so much of that part of his game is either super raw or unknown. Has the chance to be an elite defender given his tools.
Why he’s ranked here: Smith is such a raw player with a level of basketball skill that isn’t all that impressive. That being said, the dude is an absolute athlete who has a ton of room for improvement given his intangibles.
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Guard, Kentucky
Scouting notes: Slippery smooth athlete who can get by defenders with change of speed and craftiness. Unbelievable size and wingspan for a lead guard. Not a super explosive athlete and gets no rise on his jumper, so development into a pull up shooter/difficult shot maker is unlikely. Jump shot mechanics looks good, though, and shot the ball well at UK. Good tools to be a solid defender despite not being super quick. Excellent passer who makes the right plays and has a sneaky good BBIQ. Projects as a valuable guard/wing with secondary ball-handling ability and shooting.
Why he’s ranked here: SGA is a unique prospect because he doesn’t fit a specific mold, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He has attractive physical and cerebral tools that are hard to ignore.
10. Mikal Bridges — Wing, Villanova
Scouting notes: Might be best spot up shooter in the draft when you combine size and length with shooting percentages, but form does seem a little funky. Can shoot off screens and has good shot versatility, able to make tough, contested, leaning shots. Pretty much no dribble pull up game at this point, though. Slight frame not good for someone who could be tagged as a 3-and-D guy. Great wingspan which allows for blocks in on-ball defense scenarios, but doesn’t move feet particularly well and gets bruised when switched onto bigs. If jump-shot is there, slashing ability will at least be average due to threat and use of pump fake. Average passer, but already has experience playing in NBA offense at Villanova.
Why he’s ranked here: There is a good chance Mikal turns into a reliable 3-and-D type for a team and garners massive amounts of playing time because of his size, length and shooting ability.
9. Miles Bridges — Wing/Forward, Michigan State
Scouting notes: Jump shot looks NBA ready. Very versatile jump shooter, can shoot off screens, spot up, even a little bit off the dribble. Takes stupid shots at times, but was forced to be the go-to guy at MSU. Above average athlete translates to good on-ball defender, extends well on block attempts, but falls asleep at times and lacks some team defensive awareness. Great offensive awareness, makes the extra pass and sees the defensive rotations. Concerns about him finishing off of two feet which leads to lack of foul calls and lack of explosiveness off one foot. Creation ability is also a concern.
Why he’s ranked here: Miles is remarkably impressive as an offensive player with the combination of shooting, athleticism and overall awareness. His ceiling is a high-caliber wing and his floor is still a valuable role player.
Tier 2: All-NBA/All-Star potential
Definition: players with outlier skill and/or physical attributes that could make them top-25 players eventually
8. Mohamed Bamba — Big, Texas
Scouting notes: Defensively could be impact player from day one strictly due to size and length. Lacks technique/discipline/explosiveness so ceiling is somewhat limited. Absolutely needs to add strength. Length makes him a great finisher despite lack of explosiveness. Pretty rudimentary offensive skill set otherwise. Solid awareness on both ends, just lacks ability to execute plays. Believer in his jump shot, which if he turns out to be a decent three-point shooter it could significantly alter his career trajectory.
Why he’s ranked here: Easily the most intriguing prospect in the draft, Bamba has garnered comparisons to both Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid. It’s likely that he won’t be nearly as good as either of these two All-NBA performers, but Bamba has some very attractive upside with his blend of historic length and growing shooting ability.
7. Michael Porter, Jr. — Forward, Missouri
Scouting notes: All-star talent with lots of question marks. A large wing who could easily slide into the four position and wreak havoc with pick-and-pop and ball-handling ability. Not a superb passer but has decent feel. Smooth athlete for 6'10, but after back surgery at Mizzou looked much more stiff. Solid jumper for his size, can destroy in transition as lob catcher or huge body leading the break. Great jump shooter on spot-ups. Often times chucks bad shots. Has decent defensive instincts and rim protection is solid despite some mental inconsistencies.
Why he’s ranked here: If MPJ looks anything like he did at Mizzou, he’s not worth a lottery pick. But there is still hope that he could return to his old form and dominate opposing 4’s with his wing skills. He is way too tantalizing to fall out of the top 10.
6. Marvin Bagley III — Big, Duke
Scouting notes: Elite jumping ability and best rebounder in the draft. Was absolutely atrocious defender at every level in college, but upside could be there given body and athleticism. Similar to Ayton, has shown flashes of shot blocking prowess, but overall terrible instincts and defensive awareness. Despite jumping ability, quick first step is not there. Despite short arms, he has crazy good touch and extension in the paint. Offensively projects as a playmaking big with great finishing ability.
Why he’s ranked here: Bagley could be a top-5 offensive center in the NBA in no time, but his defense may never be good, and that is a problem.
5. Wendell Carter, Jr — Big, Duke
Scouting notes: Defensively way more advanced in terms of defensive awareness and technique than Bagley, but lack of lateral quickness and explosion leaves less room for improvement. Very agile with the ball for a guy his size, great form on jumper and good consistency on footwork but small sample size. Uses physical prowess inside to overpower defenders and finish well. Runs the floor with energy. Great overall basketball IQ.
Why he’s ranked here: If Wendell had a more NBA-friendly body/more natural athleticism, he might be the best prospect in this draft. For now, however, he projects as a cerebrally gifted and skilled post player.
Tier 1: All-NBA potential with major winning impact
Definition: players with exceptional talent that are conducive to winning basketball and can be cornerstones from a team-building perspective
4. Trae Young — Point, Oklahoma
Scouting notes: Elite offensive player in college and has the chance to be elite at the next level, but concerns over size could translate into low efficiency chucking in the NBA. Probably the best shooting prospect since Steph Curry, and his jumper and unlimited range combined with speed and ball-handling equity will allow him to score in a variety of ways. Defensively could be Isaiah Thomas level to start. There is room for improvement with discipline and focus but best case scenario is slightly below average or average defender.
Why he’s ranked here: Trae could be a top-10 NBA player some day with the offensive skillset he has. Or he could be perpetual backup who only plays in certain matchups due to his defensive concerns. Time, work ethic and body development will tell.
3. Jaren Jackson, Jr. — Big, Michigan State
Scouting notes: Unreal defensive prospect. Natural shot blocker, great mobility, quick hip turns on closeouts. Projects as an elite defender at the 5. Offensively already a plus as a stretch big and passing/decision-making/awareness is above average already. Average finisher especially given his size/length and inconsistencies across the board but only 18 years old so improvement as body develops more is almost certain.
Why he’s ranked here: Versatile bigs can be the difference between a good team and a championship level team. JJJ is the most versatile big in the draft and does everything you would want a big to do in the modern NBA.
2. DeAndre Ayton — Big, Arizona
Scouting notes: Dominant physical presence and next level athlete/jumping ability for his size. Could project as an elite finisher in PNR or dump off situations but needs to have a more aggressive mindset (i.e. too often goes for finesse) and also small sample size in PNR. Naturally good touch on jumper, but inconsistent footwork and flat shot may not translate to much range in NBA. Defensively has good technique to block shots, but very poor instincts. Athletically could become a dynamite iso defender but was inconsistent and made stupid mistakes often in college.
Why he’s ranked here: Not many people in the entire world have the physical tools Ayton has, let alone the basketball skill. Fit in the modern NBA is a concern, though.
1. Luka Doncic — Wing, Real Madrid
Scouting notes: Excellent ball-handler in PNR — composed, creative, crafty. Looks comfortable shooting from deep. Spaces well, defends and plays hard. Projects as a primary/secondary ball-handler with outlier feel for the game and above average shooting. Still worries about his athleticism — will likely never be a top-5 offensive player unless his handle reaches high-level status. Could benefit from becoming more crafty in one-on-one situations due to lack of separation ability. Not a great defensive prospect but effort is 100% there and understands team defense as well.
Why he’s ranked here: Wings dominate the NBA. If you have high-level offensive wings you win games, simple as that. Doncic is the best bet to be a top-tier offensive player out of anyone in this draft.