DANGER: Ukraine’s Attacks on Russian Radars Put the United States at Risk

Photo by Stellan Johansson on Unsplash

At risk of engaging in histrionics, we seem to be on a glide path that may take us to nuclear war. We need to interrupt that glide.

Ukraine has begun attacking Russia’s strategic nuclear early warning radars using long-range drones. So far, two of Russia’s (I believe) 12 arrays have been hit. The second one was 1,100 miles into Russian territory. These are the radars Russia relies on to detect a U.S. nuclear attack. The extent of the damage on these two radars is unclear but in the worst case these could render Russia blind to a nuclear attack coming from the south, in particular from the Mediterranean or Indian Ocean. Note that the most potent first-strike missiles in the U.S. nuclear arsenal are based on Trident submarines, and a devastating attack on Russia can come from within the fields of these radars.

This is extremely dangerous for us. and it must be stopped. Our lives depend on the integrity of Russia’s early warning system, because the less effective those radars, the more Russia will push their launch procedures in the direction of, or to, “launch-on-warning,” which would greatly increase the chance of a massive accidental nuclear war.

Theodore Postol, professor emeritus in MIT’s program in science, technology and international security, and perhaps the most expert person in the U.S. on Russian early-warning radars, has been sending the following email to national security reporters at major U.S. publications. I’ve been in touch with Dr. Postol and verified that this message is in fact from him:

Subject EXTREMELY ALARMING NEW DEVELOPMENT — Ukranians Attack A SECOND Russian Nuclear Strategic Early Warning Radar

Dear _______,

I am writing to alert you to an extremely alarming new development that poses a direct and immediate threat to the security of the United States.

The Ukrainians have now attacked a second critical Russian nuclear strategic early warning radar at Orsk.

This radar looks towards the Indian Ocean and has some overlap with the radar fans from the already damaged radar at Armavir.

The initial indicators are that the amount of damage to the Orsk is likely limited, but it cannot be ruled out that the radar is not functioning for the moment due to the attack.

This is a very serious situation.

Unlike the United States, the Russians do not have space-based satellite warning systems that can see ballistic missile attacks globally. This means that the radar coverage lost by the attacks on these radars greatly reduces the warning time against attacks on Moscow from the Mediterranean and Indian oceans.

The Russians have a radar operating in Moscow that can see arriving warheads but they would only begin to see the warheads above the horizon at very short times before impacts.

My estimates (based on real analysis, not bullshit) is that the radar early warning time has been reduced from about 15 to 16 minutes to about 10 to 11.

This amount of warning time might quite possibly eliminate the possibility of any deliberation-time on the part of Russian leaders if they were confronted with a decision of whether or not to launch Russian strategic nuclear forces in response to a nuclear attack on Moscow.

Russian political leadership in Moscow would have almost no time to assess the situation if they believed a possible attack from the south was underway.

The extreme time-pressure on Russian leadership could thereby significantly increase the possibilities of a catastrophic nuclear accident.

The fact that Blinken and his national security team have provided a “go ahead” to the Ukrainian government to attack Russian sites outside of Ukraine, means that … Blinken has recklessly told Ukrainians they can engage in such acts that would have a potentially catastrophic consequence for the United States, and the entire planet.

If Blinken is not aware of the danger that is posed by these attacks, he is so incompetent that he should be removed along with his entire team from any position of authority.

If he is aware of this danger, he should also be removed with his entire national security team.

I have extensive personal experiences with people at the White House that indicate to me it is entirely possible that Blinken and his team are not aware of the dangers they are…allowing to occur.

I will not spend time herein describing my personal experiences and observations, but I can do so at any time on any notice. It cannot be ruled out that the White House is completely unaware of the danger.

Please feel free to give me a call at any time if you would like to hear further about my concerns.

I cannot emphasize enough how frightening and dangerous this development is — at least to me, who I think can claim a rather detailed knowledge of the nuclear strike systems of both Russia and [the] United States.

Best regards, Ted

This good, brief (~30 minutes) interview with Ted Postol on the radar attacks was just posted (June 1). Good background and an accesible introduction to some of the technical issues, for those who are interested:

Here are a few links to biographical materials about Dr. Postol:
https://tcij.org/person/theodore-a-postol/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_Postol
https://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/

You can find various videos online of Dr. Theodore Postol explaining how Russian early-warning radars work. Just search.

For additional context, this is a Substack post by Stephen Bryen, a former government official and expert on various aspects of weapons and strategy:

Ukraine's Attack on Russia's Strategic Radar a Significant Escalation

The following is not a high-production value video, but it has some useful information in it and is fairly short (9 minutes). Personally, I found the segment of ex-Prime minister Boris Johnson worth the “price of admission”: it gives you an idea of just how unhinged and irresponsible these people are, advocating unlimited strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons with no thought for consequences. If you are waiting for our leaders to start serving our interests, you will be waiting for a long time.

I also highly recommend this article from Newsweek, which shows that the risk of nuclear escalation is arising not only because of the attacks on the radars. Multiple risks of nuclear escalation may occur simultaneously:

Putin ally issues nuclear warning over Ukraine's new F-16s

We really are in trouble and people need to wake up and start to take action, both individually and en masse, on their own behalf to change Western policies. I am talking about non-violent action, of course, but powerful action nonetheless. If you’re looking for a few ideas, here are some off the cuff:

1. If you have a personal connection with the producer or host of one or more large, well-listened-to podcasts or other media platforms, please write to me (b.abelow.2022@gmail.com) and we can discuss how to facilitate an interview for Dr. Postol.
2. Consider spreading the link to this Medium post on social media or in your email networks. You’re also welcome to copy and circulate the content of this post on social media, other websites, etc.
3. Contact your local newspaper and encourage them to write an article. Or write an opinin piece yourself. I can facilitate contact with Dr. Postol if a newspaper or other media venue wants to get information from him directly.
4. Though I don’t have much respect for most people in Congress, these people do respond to pressure. So I would think that a message sent to your Congresspersons and perhaps to the White House would not hurt and might possibly do some good. In fact, why not send the link to this post. In all cases, don’t hesitate to copy Dr. Postol’s email message, above. It is very powerful and he is glad to have it circulated.
5. Start raising awareness and consider organizing in your community — educational events, protest marches, whatever.

Let me end by saying what I hope will be obvious from Dr. Postol’s message, above. We really are in growing danger. If you care about the safety of yourself, family, friends, the nation, and the world; if you want to prevent the further inevitable destruction of Ukraine and loss of Ukrainian (and Russian) life, which will only get worse and worse if this war continues; if you want to slow the rate this country is absolutely bankrupting itself; if — well, you get the idea: We need to pull the plug on this bloody war now.

Thanks for reading.

Ben Abelow, Author, How the West Brought War to Ukraine: Understanding How U.S. and NATO Policies Led to Crisis, War, and the Risk of Nuclear Catastrophe