Celtics Take Big Swing in Kyrie Trade
Analyzing the mega-trade between the Cavs and Celtics and its fallout

Kyrie Irving was traded to the Celtics Tuesday night for Boston fan favorite Isaiah Thomas, analytics darling Jae Crowder, international rookie Ante Zizic, and a coveted 2018 Brooklyn Nets draft pick, which picks during a stacked upcoming draft class. There is so much to unpack from this massive deal. Very rarely are two stars like Thomas and Irving traded for each other. But in an offseason where three superstars were traded prior to this deal, the Cavs-Celtics deal might trump them all.
The Celtics gave up a lot of pieces in this trade. Isaiah Thomas is coming off of a season where he performed at Kobe Bryant levels. Thomas was discussed as an MVP candidate at times this season, and probably should’ve been given more of a look for the award, as he ranked 9th in win shares, and second in Offensive Box Plus/Minus. He might be coming off of a bad hip injury and hit his peak at age 28, but his season was clearly remarkable, as he was the best player on the one seed in the East.
Jae Crowder is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, ranking in the top 26 of ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus the last two years. He shot 40% from three last year and is a great defender, the type of 3-and-D wing that is made to play against the Warriors. His inclusion in the deal is huge for Cleveland.
The other two pieces in the deal are rookie Ante Zizic and an unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Zizic was the 23rd pick in the 2016 NBA draft, a 20 year old out of Croatia. The dude is 7 feet tall but has handles. Look at him off the dribble in this past Summer League.

Zizic is a real prospect who would have been drafted mid first round this past season as well. He is quick on his feet for such a tall player and should be able to be a serviceable defender in the NBA. He’s also a fantastic passer. Here is him in Euro League, number 41.

He might not be a great NBA player, but he’s a pretty good prospect, the type of big that can survive in today’s NBA because of his passing, ball handling, and quick feet. If the Cavs got just him, Thomas and Crowder, it would have been a justifiable package.
But the Celtics also gave up this upcoming Nets draft pick, one that is almost certain to land in the top 7. There is optimism in the NBA about the Nets hopes this season to be better than in year’s past, but they traded away their best player in Brook Lopez. D’Angelo Russell is still only 22 years old and not going to make Brooklyn that much better while newly acquired Allen Crabbe might be one of the worst defenders in the league. Make no mistake, this upcoming pick has a shot to be very high and land a young stud like Michael Porter, Luka Doncic or Marvin Bagley.
There is no denying the Celtics gave up a lot of pieces for Irving, and it becomes even more puzzling because they’ve hesitated on so many other deals. Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, Chris Paul and Jimmy Butler have all been traded since February. This deal for Kyrie Irving is significantly better than the return each team got for any of those four players. Of those four trades, the best asset to be moved was either Patrick Beverley (who would’ve been a great fit on the Cavs, but I digress) or the number 7 pick in last year’s draft (which the Bulls mistakenly used on big Lauri Markkanen). Not only is Isaiah Thomas alone worth more than either of those assets, but a package of Crowder, Zizic and the Nets’ pick is significantly more valuable than any combination the Clippers, Pacers, Kings and Bulls received for their stars.
The question to this: would you rather have two years of Kyrie Irving more than any of those four stars on their current deals? CP3, George and Cousins are all impending free agents, and might have been too much of a risk to trade for just to see them walk next year. But Jimmy Butler has two years left on his current deal, the same amount as Irving. Was passing him up worth waiting for Irving to become available?
I would argue no. There is no denying Kyrie’s unbelievable offensive skill. Irving averaged 25 points per game last year, shooting 40% from three, and ranked tied for number one (ironically with Isaiah Thomas) in points per possession on Isolation plays. Irving’s Offensive Real Plus-Minus of 4.35 was 14th in the league last year (Thomas was 6th). His ball handling is ridiculous, and if you had to choose a player in the NBA to hit a game winning shot, Kyrie might be number one on the list.
That being said, there are holes in his statistics and game. When he was on the floor and LeBron was on the bench, the Cavs got outscored by 8 points per hundred possessions, which is equivalent to the worst team in the NBA. That is an almost 600 minute sample size of Irving’s team being horrible without LeBron there to help him, and is not the sign of a superstar.
Irving is also a terrible defender, although slightly better than Isaiah Thomas. His -2.3 defensive Real Plus-Minus ranked 440th out of 468 defenders, while Thomas ranked 467th with -3.89. Irving ranked in the 19th percentile of all pick and roll defenders on the ball handler, which was even worse than Thomas. Also, he ranked even worse in isolation, in the 12th percentile of Iso defenders. Both players had defensive ratings of 109, which is horrible.
Irving might be a special offensive talent, but his defense isn’t significantly better than Thomas’s, and Isaiah was the better offensive player last season. The argument against IT on the Celtics was his poor defense, but Kyrie isn’t much of an upgrade on that end. He might not be 5’9, but his defense has been atrocious his entire career, and his numbers with LeBron on the bench were horrible.
Maybe Celtics coach Brad Stevens can use Kyrie to the best of his abilities. You can imagine Irving running similar types of plays to Thomas and executing them at similar efficiencies because their offensive styles are so similar in their ball dominant ways. But Kyrie has never played much off ball screen action before like Thomas has for the Celtics. Stevens will probably change that.
There are so many other questions for Boston. Gordon Hayward was pitched to the Celtics by Isaiah Thomas. How does he feel about this trade? Was he looking forward to being more ball dominant? Kyrie is looking for even higher usage, which will come at Hayward’s expense. Now that Boston has shipped out Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, probably their two best defenders if not two of their best three, how is their defense going to hold up? Hayward is an okay defensive player, and although they traded the atrocious defender Thomas, Irving isn’t much of a step forward at the point guard position defensively.
Now that Crowder is gone, will Jaylen Brown be able to fill his shoes? Brown’s advanced stats boded poorly for Boston, and rookie Jayson Tatum isn’t projected to start his career as a great defender (although his size might help him grow into one). This Boston team might project worse than it would had they just kept Thomas, Crowder and Zizic, and they lose a future Nets draft pick. That’s a tough pill to swallow for future and present success.
The case for the trade for Boston might lie within a two year plan. Irving is under contract for two more seasons, and by the end of the upcoming season, LeBron might be out of the Eastern Conference. The Celtics with have a fifth year Marcus Smart, who is projected by FiveThirtyEight to be a future All-Star. They will also have a third year player in Jaylen Brown, who should be improved, as well as sophomore Jayson Tatum, who is imagined will be better as well. Gordon Hayward will still be in his prime, and assuming Al Horford doesn’t decline steeply, that team will probably be better than this year’s because of the young core. They also might receive this year’s Lakers’ draft pick if it falls between slots 2–5 in the lottery.
However, Boston could have tried to make this same deal for Jimmy Butler and gotten back a better player on the same contract length. Butler is a true two way star, an unbelievable offensive option who can guard any player on the opposite end of the floor. He is more valuable than Irving, and would not open Boston up to the same defensive liabilities they faced with Thomas or Irving. Not only that, but his presence would allow Marcus Smart to start at point guard and defend opposing players at the position. The timing of the trade of Butler through things out of whack for Boston, as they had to wait until after free agency began to secure Hayward, while Jimmy was traded weeks before during the NBA draft. Danny Ainge finally made the move for his star in Kyrie, but passing on Jimmy Butler might haunt Celtics fans for years to come.
The Cavs were the recipients of Boston’s trade assets, and for a star in Irving, they got a significant haul in return. Thomas slots in as Irving’s replacement, and might actually be an offensive improvement although his defense is still lacking. Crowder is the perfect wing to (attempt to) guard Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green in the finals, and should be a starter for the Cavs. Zizic and the Nets pick provide Cleveland protection for the future if LeBron decides to walk in free agency this upcoming summer.
The juxtaposition of both future assets and win now pieces for Cleveland would have been hard to come by in any move. As I chronicled earlier when Irving trade reports started to surface, there were only a handful of teammates with the range of assets to offer Cleveland (Sidenote, I mentioned Boston but did not take them seriously because I didn’t think they would move on from Thomas. Danny Ainge sure proved me wrong).
The Bucks, Jazz and Nuggets had guys, but neither had either elite level prospects or future lottery picks that would entice Cleveland. The only team that truly has this combination of pieces outside of Boston is Phoenix, but making a deal with them would have been riskier. The Cavs would need to rely on rookie Josh Jackson to help them win a title. With the Celtics trade, Zizic isn’t going to be a starter on the team, and the pick from Brooklyn will help Cleveland with a prospect in the future by attempting to win now with Lebron. It’s the perfect scenario for Cleveland.
There were no better deals out there for the Cavs. I had thought Avery Bradley and Andre Drummond up as interesting pieces mainly because of their matchups with Golden State, specifically Bradley; he is noted to be the best on ball defender in the league. But Detroit has no future assets that would allow Cleveland to recover if LeBron James leaves, leaving them empty handed.
The questions now arise for Cleveland; what do you do with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson? James and Crowder play the same position, and right now Cleveland projects a huge starting lineup in a league that is dominated by small ball. A front court of Love and Thompson probably isn’t beating Golden State in the finals, and a defense with Love and Isaiah Thomas is just as much a nightmare pick and roll defensive combo as Love and Irving. With Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon backing up Isaiah Thomas, the Cavs might have the worst defending point guards in the league by a long shot. They will have to make a trade in order to beat Golden State, because those guys aren’t going to guard Stephen Curry in the finals adequately.
But as of now, Cleveland has to be ecstatic with the return on Irving. Isaiah Thomas is coming off of an MVP caliber season and is now joining LeBron. There is no analysis needed to understand that this offense is going to be potent. Thomas is a better passer than Irving and is fantastic off the ball. Cleveland might have a move or two to make to catch Golden State, but this trade was a step in the right direction. And now if James decides to walk to the Lakers, the Cavaliers have a backup plan.
It’s a strange trade for both of these teams. Thomas is a beloved Celtic who has underwent a lot of trauma in the past year with the death of his sister. Boston embraced the underdog in him, and will be sad to see him go. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving hit the biggest shot in Cleveland sports history, helping the team end a 50 year championship drought. These two fan favorites are now jumping ship to each other’s fan base in one of the stranger trades we’ve seen in a long time. All I know is that on opening night, the Cavs play the Celtics in Cleveland.
Can October 17th come soon enough?
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com.stats, ESPN.com/stats and FiveThirtyEight.com
