Jusuf Nurkic Makes the Blazers a Contender
Why the Bosnian center and Portland might surprise in the West
The Portland Trail Blazers were headed to a disappointing season last year before they traded Mason Plumlee to the Denver Nuggets for a first round pick and Jusuf Nurkic. Nurkic was great in the beginning of his time in Denver, but eventually was relegated the bench as fellow big Nikola Jokic took the league by storm. The Nuggets decided they couldn’t play both Jokic and Nurkic together, and sent him off to Portland for a fresh start, even sweetening the deal with a first round pick.
The deal might end up as one of the best deals in Trail Blazers history. After acquiring Nurkic, the Blazers made a late season push and snagged the eighth seed in the Western Conference, going 14–6 in the games that Nurkic played. While other Western Conference teams this offseason caught fans’ attention with splashy trades and big signings, the Blazers’ biggest move already happened last season. Nurkic’s game may be ugly, but what he is able to provide Portland might propel them to a high seeding in the West.
When Nurkic was on the court last year for the Blazers, Portland outscored opponents 9.4 points per 100 possessions, which would have been good for 2nd in the NBA to Golden State. Nurkic is an incredible offensive screener and dramatically improved the Blazers’ offense. When the Bosnian big man was on the floor, the Blazers shot 44.3% from mid-range, compared to 39.4% when he was on the bench. CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard are two of the best midrange shooters in the game. All it takes is a little space to get them open and gunning. Nurkic provided exactly that. Look at Nurkic’s screen on Danny Green get CJ a whole lot of open space (although he misses).
The Blazers also shot 59.4% from the restricted area when Nurkic was on the floor compared to 55% when he was on the bench. This was no mistake; Nurkic’s high screens for CJ and Lillard often force the opposing center out of the paint to defend them. If the center doesn’t try to fight over the screen, then Lillard or McCollum ends up with an open shot.
If they do help, there are one of two consequences. The first is that one of the two lightning quick guards gets inside of the paint for an easier layup as the rim protector is stuck defending the perimeter. Look at Thon Maker hit by a hard screen, leading to McCollum attacking Giannis and getting to the bucket.
The second is the big switches onto the Blazers ball handler. Against CJ and Lillard, this is costly. Look at Clint Capela get stuck on McCollum off of a Nurkic dribble hand off. Capela is no match for the lightning quick Blazers guard, and Patrick Beverley is unable to help because he would leave Lillard wide open from three.
Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts understands his big man’s strengths, and often runs Lillard and McCollum dribble hand off screens around Nurkic, screening for one to hand off to the other. These two guards only need a sliver of space to capitalize on opposing defenses, and when both are running around the court, there is little any other defense can do to stop them.
Nurkic is an unbelievable offensive rebounder. For players who played over 60 games last year, Nurkic was second in contested offensive rebound percentage to only Robin Lopez with 83.1%. His rebounding is just part of what makes him so vital to a Blazers offense that ranked 5th in the league after he joined them at the trade deadline.
Nurkic’s presence on the floor solidified the Blazers defense. The Blazers held opponents to 103 points per 100 possessions when Nurkic was on the floor, versus 111 points per 100 possessions when he was on the bench. Nurkic is great at blocking shots, although sometimes he is awkward with his hands protecting the rim. Sometimes he lets guards get right up to the rim without a contest.
Nurkic is often very confused when ball handlers come at him inside. Look at Westbrook drive towards him slowly at the rim off of a pick and roll. He ends up hesitating instead of making a decision and staying in front of his man. Other times he messes up timing his jump to block the shot. But Nurkic is 7’1 and broad shouldered; it’s really hard to drive through him to get a layup.
Nurkic defends pick and rolls almost the same way every time. He lays off of the ball handler and waits for the switch. Once he’s covering the ball handler, he lays way off of them, waiting in the paint for them to drive. Sometimes this leads to uncontested mid range shots, but what it doesn’t lead to is easy layups. Here Nurkic backs off of Courtney Lee, letting him get off a midrange shot without a contest.
There is no denying how awkward Nurkic is with his body and his hands. Sometimes he has trouble grabbing uncontested rebounds. Sometimes his mistimed jumps allow layups inside. But Nurkic improved the Blazers defense when he was on the court last season. Much has been made about Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum being too bad defensively to lead the Blazers on a deep playoff run. But with a rim protector like Nurkic inside, they are able to close hard on three point shooters and are underexposed.
Look here as Dennis Schroeder runs a pick and roll past Damian Lillard. Schroeder has a lane inside to the bucket, with only Nurkic to beat. But Schroeder looks at Nurkic and settles for the midrange two. Lillard ends up catching up to him and blocking the shot, and Nurkic secures the board.
When Roy Hibbert and the Indiana Pacers’ defense tore up the league in 2010–13, it was Hibbert’s rim protection that propelled the defense. Coach Frank Vogel had his defenders close out hard on three pointers, and left players wide open from mid range, the most inefficient offensive shot on the floor. It seems as if Blazers’ coach Terry Stotts is employing the same strategy with Nurkic as his center.
Yes, Roy Hibbert ended up falling apart, but the blueprint is there for Nurkic to hold down a top defense in the league. There will be teams that test them defensively; Golden State, Houston and Oklahoma City of course come to mind. The Rockets will throw a ton of three point shooting around a Clint Capela pick and roll to try and get Nurkic to switch and leave the paint, but they don’t have any lineups that force Nurkic to guard a three point shooting center on the perimeter. Oklahoma City doesn’t either, with Andre Roberson and Steven Adams as non shooters in any lineup.
Golden State does, with their death lineup of Curry-Klay-Iguodala-Durant-Draymond. But maybe, just maybe, Nurkic’s size inside can throw them off, and Iguodala and Draymond aren’t great three point shooters anyway. The Blazers have defensive wings in Mo Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu that are fit as anybody to guard the Warriors, able to switch on screens. And Nurkic’s screens on offense are no match for any defender in the league to fight over, Draymond Green included. It’s a ridiculously small sample size, but Nurkic was had a plus minus of positive 8 in the lone playoff game he played against Golden State last postseason.
When Houston, Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Denver went out and acquired star players this offseason, the whole league was on notice. But when Portland made a trade with the Brooklyn Nets to offload Allen Crabbe, GM Neil Olshey didn’t get as much attention. Of course on the surface this was a good deal for Portland, as Crabbe was being paid a lot for a bench player, and the Blazers didn’t have to give anything up to move his salary. But Crabbe was actually one of the worst defenders in the league last year, ranking 455th of 468 in ESPN’s defensive real plus minus. It isn’t hard to see what makes him so bad. Watch him be blown by to the bucket by Tyus Jones, not exactly a star point guard.
It wasn’t a flashy move, but unloading Crabbe will pay huge dividends for Portland. The Blazers defense might actually compete this season after ranking 21st in defensive rating last year. After acquiring Nurkic, the Blazers had the 10th best defense in the league, and the league’s 4th best net rating. And that was with defensive atrocity Crabbe. While Paul George, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler and Paul Millsap will be adjusting to their new situations, Jusuf Nurkic and the Blazers are already adjusted and ready to go. And they could be the sleeper number team to challenge the Warriors in the West.
All statistics courtesy of stats.NBA.com and ESPN.com.
