Why the Tories have already lost the next election: “Don’t rock the boat” | Part I
The mentality that controls English politics
The Tories have committed the greatest sin in English politics — they rocked the boat. And for that they will be punished by the voters they need the most. For those in ‘middle-England’ shire seats, instability is inexcusable. Unfortunately, that seems to be all we are getting today. Countless crises have been mishandled to the point that the country is suffering the worst hit to living standards since records began.
You could snidely argue that people knew what they were voting for in Brexit, by sacrificing stability and the economy on the altar of “sovereignty”. But the Leave campaign’s greatest feat was convincing people that Brexit was not an act of rocking the boat — but instead a steadying of the ship that was rocked by being a member of the European Union. In their view, it was immigrants from across Eastern Europe and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism that were upending English politics. However, Brexit had at least some democratic legitimacy behind it. You can’t say the same about Liz Truss and her disastrous mini-budget.
And I speak of England, because it is in the English heartlands where “don’t rock the boat” is uniquely powerful. In practice, this mentality manifests itself in various ways. Perhaps most notably, it leads to NIMBYism. People like to blame stringent council restrictions for the lack of housebuilding, but they exist for a reason: it’s what the people already living there want.
Simply put, they want things to stay the same. There are some egregious examples, like the rusty pole in Exmouth that was taken down, prompting local outrage. But more importantly, the housing crisis holds back the country by reducing mobility and raising housing costs. Half of all Britons believe that housing is a serious issue, and the facts support that idea.
“Had the UK built houses at the rate of the average Western European country from 1955 to 2015, it would have added a further 4.3 million homes than it actually did — resulting in 15 per cent more homes than the 28.3 million dwellings that actually did exist in 2015.”— The Centre for Cities.
Another curious side effect of this mentality is that Britons are much less likely to imagine themselves becoming richer than those in other nations. A 2016 study found that the UK is the most pessimistic of all major countries when it comes to social mobility. Fundamentally, people are happy without any sort of disorder in their lives (positive or not).
This is not a new phenomenon. Far from it. To illustrate the point, let’s look at the past few elections where power switched hands between Labour and the Conservatives:
David Cameron. 2010.
The 2000s were a bad time to be a Tory. Between 2001–2005, there were just 166 Tory MPs out of 659 available seats. Resoundingly, Blair’s New Labour had seized the Tory heartlands. But in 2010, Cameron won the shires back for the Conservative Party. Outside of London, just 10 of 197 Southern English seats went for Labour. And he did it by moving a tainted Tory party back into the centre. Here’s what he told the party’s annual conference after his recent election as leader:
“In these past 10 months we have moved back to the ground on which this Party’s success has always been built: the centre ground of British politics.”—David Cameron, 2006.
This message may not have had such potency, were it not for the financial crash that occurred under Labour’s watch. Alas, the boat was rocked and Labour, being in government for 13 years, could not escape the blame. If you can see the direct parallels with today, you’re not alone.
Tony Blair. 1997.
To take down the Tories after 18 years in power, Tony Blair had one mantra for Labour’s manifesto, “mainstream, costed and sensible.” The BBC wrote that the party targeted “mainly ‘middle-English’ seats” and bombarded them with leaflets, canvassers, and visits from John Prescott.
John Major’s Conservatives tried to cast Labour as the union-backed extremists of the 1970s, but that messaged failed when Labour pledged not to raise income tax. What’s more, Blair promised there would be no further integration with a “European superstate”. Labour’s campaign ad even featured a slouching bulldog named Fitz, who slowly rises to his feet as Tony Blair speaks. This visual allegory, and Brian Cox’s voiceover, conveyed Labour’s central message in 1997: “Give Britain back its sense of purpose”.
Margaret Thatcher. 1979.
People speak of Thatcher’s election as one of the great shifts in English politics. Indeed, her time in office radically changed the face of the country. But this is not how Thatcher’s Conservative Party campaigned and won over the country. To open the 1979 contest, Thatcher gave a speech in Cardiff, then the seat of Labour PM James Callaghan. In it, she said:
“All that is necessary for the triumph of Marxist Socialism in this country is that a majority of you, who normally vote Labour, should believe that the Labour party of today and tomorrow is the same as the Labour party of yesterday. It isn’t. If you care deeply for our country, and you do not care for the way your present day Labour party is going, come with us. We offer you a political home where you can honourably realise the ideals which took you into the Labour party in the first place.” — Margaret Thatcher, 1979.
In short, she promised a restoration. In her words, Labour rocked the boat and the Conservatives would put it back on course. Thanks to this campaign, the Tories would go on to win a majority of 44 seats.
So where does this leave us? Well, one thing is for sure — when Keir Starmer says that Labour are on course for a majority in 2024, he’s right. Indeed, Keir’s Labour are studiously targeting the shires with a “don’t rock the boat” message. Labour won’t rejoin the EU single market. They won’t scrap tuition fees. But they will protect the family and the flag. In fact, if you compare Thatcher’s speech above with one Keir gave recently, it’s all the more clear just how pervasive Middle England’s middle ground really is.
“The Conservative Party can no longer claim to be conservative. It conserves nothing we value — not our rivers and seas, not our NHS or BBC, not our families, not our nation. We must understand there are precious things… that it is our responsibility to protect and preserve and to pass on to future generations. And look — if that’s sounds conservative, then let me tell you: I don’t care.” — Keir Starmer, 2023.
This is Labour’s message for the next election. History says it will resonate.
Why does “Don’t Rock the Boat” rule English politics? Read Part II.
