Hey there! If you’re new here, I’m a sports analyst enthusiastic about the NFL and data viz. With new legislation allowing for sports betting in the US, I recently found there to be interest in my analysis for more than just Fantasy Football purposes. A lot of my work can be documented on my twitter: @giantsportsball.
I’ll be breaking down each game and the bets I would and would not make. A few notes before I jump into my picks:
- I tend to look for very high or very low totals and see where they stack up to historical performance. These aren’t predictive analytics.
- Some of this analysis can be seen as over segmentation. I try to consider this when making a bet if there are small sample sizes.
- I bet entirely for fun. I typically bet $5 as 1 unit, max 3 units per week. Please don’t get angry at me if these predictions are bad.
- All lines are from DraftKings sportsbook. DraftKings has not endorsed, sponsored, or paid me for this post.
Let’s get into it!
Week 5 at a Glance
Yikes! 0–3 last week. Albeit, I was in a rush applying for grad school, but I actually felt really good about last weeks numbers.
Amari Cooper and the Dallas Cowboys got absolutely pummeled by the Giants — only winning on a walk-off field goal. Amari Cooper was silenced for 2 catches and 23 yards on 4 targets. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott left the game early with a gruesome injury. My thoughts go to that guy.
Josh Jacobs and the Raiders surprised us all by going toe-to-toe with the reigning Super Bowl champs. Jacobs only barely went over 18.5 rushes, but likely wouldn’t have gotten close if the Chiefs game-script went as Vegas projected. If the Chiefs won by 11, no way, Jacobs touches the ball 20 times.
And lastly, Chris Carson had a pretty good showing against the Vikings, but a negative game-script and late game heroics by Russ meant Chris Carson would finish about 10 yards shy of his Vegas total. Carson averaged for 6.5 YPC on his 8 carries; the process here was correct, but the outcome was not.
Now on to week 6.
Daniel Jones over 20.5 Passing Completions (-139)
vs. Washington (+2.5)
Despite his average numbers through just over 1 season, Daniel Jones is definitely a gun-slinger. Through 18 games in his career, Jones is averaging 22 pass completions per game. More specifically, Jones is averaging 25 completions as a Vegas favorite, and 21 as an underdog.
As a matter of fact, Daniel Jones has passed for more than 21 completions in 72% of his games as a starter. Pretty good! He’s also never thrown for less than 21 completions as a Vegas favorite.
I don’t see a way Washington’s defense slows him down.
Counter Argument: The Washington Football team has held 2 of their 5 opposing QBs to less than 20 passing completions in 2020:
This all being said, Mayfield and Jackson both threw the balls 25 or fewer times.
The last time Jones attempted less than 25 passes in a full game? Never.
The last time he attempted less than 30? Week 6 of 2019 (28 attempts).
Jerry Jeudy o50.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
@ New England (-8)
Jerry Jeudy has emerged as the top option in Denver with Courtland Sutton sidelined for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Even prior to Sutton’s injury, Jeudy has had some solid performances:
Never mind the fact that Jeudy has had over 50 yards in each of his 4 games, he’s emerged as a legitimate target for Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, or whoever wants to get him the ball that day.
New England definitely has a lock down defense, but even 50 yards isn’t a hard total against their defense. Let’s take a look at WR1s and WR2s for a given game — given that you can’t truly call the rookie the Broncos’ WR1:
I’m comfortable suggesting Jeudy gets his 51+ yards, as no WR1 or WR2 has had less than 4 targets vs NE since the beginning of the season. Jeudy will get his targets, and as long has he continues to make big plays, 50.5 yards should be a cake walk.
Counter Argument: The New England Defense is still a top unit in the NFL. Having now an extra week to prepare (due to the COVID policies and new scheduling), Belichick may find a big way to shut down Jeudy.
Also, Drew Lock is back for his first game since exiting week 2 with a shoulder injury.
There’s a lot up in the air, but one of those things is likely the football… on its way to Jerry Jeudy for about 51 yards.
Jimmy Graham o27.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
@ Carolina (-1)
This is another one I’ve written about a few times, but the line of best fit surpassingly fits too well here.
Jimmy Graham has continued to emerge as a top target in Nick Foles’ Offense. Here’s how he spread the ball around in week 5:
Jimmy Graham was targeted the 3rd most of all of Foles’ wideouts for yards, while simultaneously being the 3rd most in targets (tied with D.Mooney).
With Foles as a passer, Graham is getting a solid amount of targets:
If Foles continues to pass to Graham, then Graham shouldn’t have an issue going over 27.5 yards against this defense:
Counter Argument: The Carolina Panthers are currently allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the Tight End position.
Even still, the Panthers are averaging 33 yards per game allowed against tight ends through week 5.
Bonus Play: Devonte Freeman o18.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
vs. Washington (+2.5)
I didn’t write a bonus play last week and went 0–3. This week, it’s all about the bonus play. The bonus prop either a line with a small sample size or with high odds that I feel good about.
Since joining the Giants, Devonte is certainly getting his fair share of receiving yards, well ahead of the 18.5 Vegas total:
The Washington Defense doesn’t seem to be able to stop RBs either — especially on the road.
Counter Argument: Only 2 RBs have had more than 18.5 receiving yards against the Washington Football Team: Darryl Henderson (week 5) and Boston Scott (week 1).
Danny Dimes is a check down guy, and I do think Freeman hits this total. Vegas has him projected at 2.5 receptions.
