Isaac Newton was also from the 18th century, just like Thomas Bayes. When you don’t have a foundation of strong first principles, then everything is alchemy. It’s the human mind’s natural state to keep on making up stuff just because we observe patterns often enough. Repeating falsehoods often enough doesn’t make it true, yet humans are susceptible to this cognitive bias. (The last sentence looks awful like Bayesian inference!) At best, Bayesian inference is a human heuristic that masquerades itself in seemingly logical mathematics.