Ten tips to help you dominate your 2016 Fantasy Draft
According to an NYPost.com article published last season, roughly 75 million Americans play fantasy football. 75 million. That’s a lot of people.
But if you’re one of the few million (maybe a little less) that happened to stumble upon this article — you’re in luck. Coming off my third championship in four seasons, I’m still hungry for more. And since I’m such a nice guy, I want to help you win as well. As Drake would say, “You can thank me now.”
Every fantasy season is won or lost on draft night. While waiver wire pickups help improve your team week-by-week, the core of your fantasy team is built during the draft. A recent article published by the Talented Mr. Roto and fantasy expert Matthew Berry said 47.5% of your team’s points come from your first four draft picks. That’s a lot of points.
There are several strategies and approaches you may take while drafting your team. They all work in their own respect, but I prefer some over others. Here are ten steps you must take while drafting your team if you wish to have a successful season.
One: Have a plan.
This is the most obvious and self-explanatory step, but also the most important. On draft night, know where you’re picking in each round, how many picks there are between your current and next pick, and (if you’re playing with friends) what type of tendencies the players around you tend to have. You should enter draft night with an idea of what you want your team to look like (taking an RB in the first, not drafting a QB until the later rounds, etc.). Having a plan is one thing, following through is a whole nother story.
Two: Have a backup plan.
It happens every year. The guy you want keeps slipping and sliding down the draft board and right when you’re about to come away with the steal of the draft — the asshole in front of you takes him. This is why step two is crucial: have a backup plan. In every round, always have a realistic “slide player” (a player who could fall lower than his average draft position) and a backup plan in the probable case that player gets drafted. You should have a “target player” who is the most realistic option to be drafted with your pick, and a backup player in case that player gets taken as well. In the event that both your players get taken, use the time given to stay calm and not rush an ill-advised pick. This is why preparation and pre-draft rankings are so crucial and step one again shows its value.
Three: Draft an RB in the first round.
Coming into 2016 the NFL has clearly molded into a pass-heavy league. While there is a lot of hype around drafting receivers this year, running backs make or break fantasy seasons. Outside of Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr., there are no elite WR’s I would take over an elite RB. Adrian Peterson and Le’Vonn Bell (even with his four game suspension) are more valuable than Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. If you have a top 4 pick in your draft, I highly recommend taking Brown/Beckham, or Bell/AP depending on how you want to build your team. If your first pick is outside the top 4, I suggest “reaching” (as some would say) for a high end running back like David Johnson or Todd Gurley, passing on an AJ Green or DeAndre Hopkins, and drafting a Dez Bryant or Jordy Nelson with your second round pick.
Four: RB 1/WR 2… Or WR 1/RB 2.
Step four is simple and effective — if you draft a wide receiver in the first round, take a running back in the second. If you decided to go RB in the first round, then fire back with a WR in the second. In the past I have found the strategy of “stockpiling” one position and then trading for other needs can be very effective. For example, I could take AP/Bryant/McCoy/Anderson/Murray and then package McCoy and Murray to upgrade my WR position (say for Brandon Marshall). This strategy is risky (you need trade partners), but can help you add quality, despite losing quantity. If you decide this is the strategy for you, you still need to flip-flop positions with your second pick.
*The exception to this rule would be if a player with high value were to significantly fall out of the first round and into your lap. Take the talent, but again…have a plan.
Five: Draft talent, not need.
Pre-draft rankings are your best friend heading into draft night. While AB and AP are not falling to #8, there is a chance you can score a “value player” in the later rounds. It is important to (after you add at least one player at the key positions) draft players based upon their value and not based upon your team’s needs. If you have 4 RB’s and only 2 WR’s in the seventh round, yet an RB you had projected going in the sixth round is still on the board in the late seventh, take him. It is important to draft the best available players instead of reaching for a team need. Team needs can be addressed weekly on the waiver wire and the more talent you have on your team, the easier it is to trade for needs if they become a prominent problem.
Six: Wait on drafting QB’s.
Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Blake Bortles. Those three “superstars” were the top 3 fantasy QB’s last season. According to thehuddle.com, the average draft positions of those QB’s in 2015 went: 84.6/69.7/163.6. For anyone who struggles with math, in a standard 10-team league the 163rd pick is the 3rd pick in the 17th round (most standard leagues only have 16 rounds). So Blake Bortles was essentially undrafted and finished with the third most points in his position. Andrew Luck (ranked 27th), Aaron Rodgers (ranked 12th), Peyton Manning (ranked 31st), and Matt Ryan (ranked 16th) were all drafted higher than Newton/Brady/Bortles, yet all finished significantly worse. This just goes to show that taking an elite QB is not worth the risk and, in most cases, unnecessary.
Seven: Defenses/Special Teams are addressed week-by-week.
There is no doubt that elite defenses can win you games throughout the season. When a Kansas City or Seattle type defense shuts down an opponent (while managing to score a couple of defensive TD’s) the 20+ points you receive will more than likely help you pick up the W. The problem with drafting an elite defense early (10th round or sooner) is when they face off against an elite offensive opponent (Seattle plays ARZ twice, GB, CAR and NE). That is why I recommend picking up a defense that has the best matchup each week, rather than trusting an elite D all season. For example, drafting Buffalo (ADP of 12 among D/ST) would be a favorable Week 1 matchup vs. Baltimore. I favor this matchup over an Arizona vs. New England or Denver vs. Carolina. Heading into Week 2, you can elect to keep the Bills D/ST vs. the Jets, or look into picking up another favorable matchup (like Baltimore vs. Cleveland) on the waiver wire.
Eight: TE’s are unreliable and inconsistent.
Rob Gronkowski is the only exception to this rule (although health is a main concern for him). Would you be surprised to learn that Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett, Julius Thomas, and Antonio Gates all failed to rank in the top 10 for tight ends last season? Jordan Reed, Gary Barnidge, and Delanie Walker all finished in the top 5 despite their average draft position being significantly lower than the four players mentioned before. Tight ends are hit-or-miss yearly and should not be drafted while capable receivers and running backs are still on the board.
Nine: Kickers are reserved for your last pick.
Stephen Gostkowski in the 15th round is acceptable, but all other kickers should be taken with your final pick. The difference between the #2 ranked kicker and #19 ranked kicker (based off average ppg) was a WHOPPING 1.9 points. I would much rather take an upside sleeper in the 15th round than the extra point (no pun intended) on average. When drafting a kicker in today’s NFL (with the new extra-point rule), extra-point % is the key stat. Last season the rankings went as follows:
1. Stephen Gostkowski-100%
2. Mason Crosby-100%
3. Justin Tucker-100%
4. Dan Bailey-100%
5. Mike Nugent-98%
All of the listed players above play on teams that love to move the football down the field — which results in FG opportunities as well as extra-points.
Ten: Weeks 14–17.
Based on the way your league is set up, your playoffs can range anywhere from Weeks 14–17. When drafting your team and debating which players have the edge over others, it is important to consider who the player will be facing in the playoffs. For example, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers are both elite fantasy QB options. While Cam gets the likes of San Diego, Washington, and Atlanta in Weeks 14–16, Rodgers must go up against the stout Seahawks, improved Bears, and dominating Vikings. I would favor Cam and his matchups over Rodgers this season. While this season is a week-by-week grind, it is important to think big picture as well.
So there you have it. The surefire, fool-proof, guaranteed way to win your fantasy league no matter what or your money back. Remember, it’s a weekly game and sometimes being bold and taking risks pays off. Check back soon to see my official 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings filled with “great value” picks and lots of sleepers!
