Week 2 NFL Picks

What. A. Week.

The NFL had one of the best Week One’s in recent memory last week — including 6 games that ended in a 1 or 2 point margin. We managed to go a perfect 2–0 with our picks last week and improved our “Best Bets” record to a perfect 1–0 record.

Below are the plays I recommend this week, but whether you decide to roll the dice or not is up to you.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans (-2.5)

This will be one of the most entertaining games this weekend. The Chiefs barely eked out a victory at home against the Chargers last Sunday. Their powerful defense showed holes (especially pressuring the quarterback) and it is clear they miss CB Sean Smith (Raiders). Justin Houston is still on the PUP list and the Kansas City offensive line is banged up. Jamaal Charles is also expected to miss the game in Houston this Sunday meaning Alex Smith will have to rely on backup running back Spencer Ware to pick up first downs in short yardage situations.

Houston on the other hand looked explosive last Sunday. New QB Brock Osweiler threw for two touchdowns and rookie WR Will Fuller V (Notre Dame) looks like he was worth the first round pick the Texans spent on him. New running back Lamar Miller was one of only two running backs to rush for 100+ yards last week (DeAngelo Williams was the other).

Houston’s defense also looked impressive last week. The Texans D sacked Bears QB Jay Cutler five times, despite J.J. Watt failing to record a sack (or solo tackle for that matter). Watt will surely be out for blood this week and an injured Chiefs offensive line will struggle to protect Alex Smith from the beast that is J.J. Watt.

The books opened this game at Houston -1, but many books currently have the Texans as -2.5 point favorites. Despite the number of spread bets being 50/50, this line movement signals the “sharp money” could be on Houston this week. We will follow them on this play and pick the home team.

The Pick: Houston Texans (-2.5) *****BEST BET OF THE WEEK*****

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Yes — I know Trevor Siemian didn’t look terrible in the Broncos win against the Carolina Panthers last Thursday. I know the Broncos still boast one of (if not) the best defenses in the league. I know the miserable Colts couldn’t squeak out a win against the suspect Lions at home last Sunday. I know all this.

But despite all this info, I like Indianapolis and the points in this one. Andrew Luck is 3–1 against Denver in his NFL career and averages 279 yards and 2.25 touchdowns against the Denver D. The Colts defense is manageable and if they can slow down C.J. Anderson, they will be able to hold the Broncos to less than 21 points.

Everyone is high on Siemian right now, but I’m not sold on the former 7th round pick. I diagnosed his start last week and when you watch the film you realize he didn’t play all that great. He will need his skilled position players to have a big week if the Broncos are to outscore the high powered Colts offense. This line keeps going up, but have no fear, it only helps.

*Denver went 1–5–1 against the spread (ATS) last year as a home favorite.

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

Other plays we like this week:

Cardinals -6.5

Vikings +2

Bears -3

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK: Vikings/Titans UNDER 41.5

Despite combining for only 10 first half points, the Vikings defense score two second half touchdowns to screw this bet up. A late DeMarco Murray touchdown (with 28 seconds left) put this game over the total as under bettors cringed in pain.

Tune back next week for our Week 3 picks. By then I will (hopefully) be a perfect 4–0 on the season as I plan to continue delivering winning picks.