What is next for LSU Football?

Last Sunday, LSU announced plans to end the Ed Orgeron Era at LSU. He’ll coach out the remainder of the 2021 season and then step down. As I’ve said in other spaces, I consider his five years here a resounding success. Orgeron delivered the single greatest season of football that we as LSU fans ever have, and likely ever will, see. It was fun, it was successful, it was everything you could ever imagine. And he deserves the credit for doing that because he oversaw it. He also failed to keep that train on the track, and it’s time for everyone to move on. On a long enough timeline, every coach gets fired, and the list of successful ones that were eventually shown the door is long as well. Orgeron delivered more than most, and for that I wish him well.

So where does LSU go from here? Athletic Director Scott Woodward has made a handful of hires during his time in Baton Rouge, but none will impact his legacy quite like a football coach. And the advantage of announcing the separation agreement with five games remaining is that he now has a clear path forward to find his man.

So, what will that coach look like?

There have always been different ways to be successful in college football. But in the last 20 years, the model for success at a program with LSU’s characteristics has become clear.

Recruit.

We’ve all heard it before — LSU is in a unique position among peers. It sits in a talent-rich state as the only significant football powerhouse and the only Power-5 conference team. Every LSU head coach should be in position to dominate in-state recruiting. Additionally, talent centers like East Texas, Georgia and Florida are all within driving distance.

However, despite this built-in advantage, the competition is fiercer than ever. Alabama and Georgia inhale an incredible amount of the top-shelf talent in the southeast. Texas A&M is right over the border in the Lone Star state, and plenty of other willing recruiting powers are looking to grab their share of talent in the region. LSU’s coach must have the right personality and skills as an evaluator and recruiter to keep the Tigers in the nation’s upper echelon of talent. Identify under-the-radar prospects as well as close the deals with four- and five-star talent. Every coach is better when he has the best players.

Hire the right people.

Similarly, every head coach is only as good as his staff. The best recruiting head coach still needs assistant coaches that can identify talent and develop the right relationships. The best X&O tactician needs assistants that can complement and implement his game plans. Coaching staffs must maximize strengths and minimize weaknesses. His most important hire will be a strength and conditioning coach to oversee player development and implement culture. A head coach also needs to be able to replace good coaches when they leave for other jobs.

The one coach in America that falls into both categories as far as recruiting and tactics is Nick Saban, and in addition to hiring excellent assistant coaches he has created a corporate superstructure of analysts and personnel assistants. Orgeron was able to move LSU forward quite a bit in terms of building out an extended staff, including general manager Austin Thomas. But these positions tend to be transient, staffed with people in the beginning of their careers looking to move up in the coaching ranks. Churn is inevitable and must be accounted for.

Manage the operation & culture.

Another part of what makes Saban unique is that he’s able to manage this Football Walmart he’s created to the ultimate detail, whether it’s personally or through trusted subordinates. Keep people happy, well-paid and make sure that everyone is pulling in the right direction.

On top of the staff, there are the players. Coaches need to create a culture in which players are empowered to take ownership of their team, while also fitting to his vision for the overall program. In addition to monitoring academics and development through offseason weights and conditioning, coaches manage relationships with their players to keep them not only happy but engaged in how their lives are developing. Now, that includes their ability to pursue worthwhile Name, Image and Likeness deals. Transfer and attrition have never been more prominent, so if your players aren’t happy and bought in they won’t stick around very long. The flip side to that is you must also be prepared to use the transfer portal yourself to supplement roster holes and weak points, which are also inevitable.

Recruit and develop top-shelf quarterbacks.

The quarterback position is its own category within the grind of recruiting. To date, they’ve been the one constant in almost every national champion in the College Football Playoff era. You’re not winning a championship without elite quarterback play. And while it’s certainly possible to find and develop prospects from under the radar, the best bet is to pursue the elite of the elite. And if you don’t have contacts in the community of big-time quarterback coaches across the country, you’d better be able to develop them. Both to find the best high school (or transfer) prospects, and to help your own players train in the offseason.

Deploy your talent in the most advantageous way possible.

In past decades, defense and a strong running game were the constant in college football. Now, that’s a recipe for 8–10 wins and fans wondering why you can’t break through to the top of the sport. This is especially true in the SEC, where Alabama runs a massively successful offense stocked with the nation’s best talent. The best offensive skill players, particularly quarterbacks and wide receivers, want to play in a scheme that will give them a chance to show off and prepare for NFL success. A coach that isn’t interested in running this type of offense is a coach that isn’t interested in winning championships.

As Capt. Jack Ross once said, these are the facts, and they are not in dispute. This is THE model for success at LSU. It’s the very one Orgeron maintained until he no longer could. And if his successor is going to win, this will be how he does it.

So how will Woodward go about finding that coach?

As Lil Wayne once put it, “real Gs move in silence like lasagna.” Most coaching searches are done behind the scenes. This is a top-shelf job at a school that will be willing to spend a ton of money, and that means that a lot of people will be interested in it. Woodward will most likely employ an executive search firm to gauge interest and vet backgrounds through secondary and tertiary connections. A classic example of how this can work is Ole Miss booster Sean Tuohy helping facilitate meetings between LSU connections and Jimmy Sexton on behalf of Nick Saban in 1999. And Sexton will be involved in this search, as he is in every SEC search. These firms use the back channels to find out which targets are interested, what plans they have in mind for the job and look for any potential hiccups or skeletons in closets. So long as the season is ongoing, LSU will not speak directly to any coach still working. That interaction won’t come until the final stages.

There will be tons of media “reports” and rumors, wannabe message-board insiders and radio/podcast hosts talking scoops and names. Almost none of it will be true and most of the names you hear will be placed strategically, likely by the agent community to position a client one way or another. The thirst for information is an easy leverage opportunity for multiple actors serving multiple agendas. The real work is done through Zoom conferences and in airport conference rooms and hotels, often in hub cities such as Atlanta, that are easy to travel through even if they aren’t necessarily the direct location of the parties involved. In other words, FlightAware tracking is futile.

Here are a couple of notes that will help you understand some of the ins and outs of these processes:

The answer is always yes, the coach is interested.

Have you ever had someone call with a job offer while you had other employment? You ever tell them “no” before listening to the offer? Exactly. LSU is a top-shelf job with a significant budget. Almost every coach is interested in some form or fashion. Maybe not in taking the job. Maybe in using it for leverage on another one. A coach can always have more money and control, at the job he has or the next one.

Not every coach that is interested really wants the job. Not every coach that is interested is the coach you want.

A deal isn’t “done” until ink is on paper.

On Thanksgiving of 2015, LSU was fully prepared to fire Les Miles. Over the next 36 hours a combination of public and political pressure from boosters and politicians (including both then-governor Bobby Jindal and then-governor-elect John Bel Edwards) led to the university reversing course and keeping Miles. Yes, reports suggested the decision was made during that Saturday’s Texas A&M game, but it was over well before then.

The next year, LSU negotiated a deal in principle with then-Houston head coach Tom Herman to replace Miles. Herman’s agent Trace Armstrong strategically leaked the details to spur the University of Texas into action so that Herman could the job he wanted more.

In the summer of 2021 LSU and Woodward was prepared to hire Pat Casey as LSU’s baseball coach. Casey was brought to Baton Rouge to tour facilities and glad-hand with other coaches and staff. Public reaction to Casey’s past in dealing with star pitcher Luke Heimlich, a convicted sex offender, eventually led to LSU backing out of the negotiations. Note: this remains a significant black eye for Woodward in my opinion, as the reaction was easily foreseeable considering the significant issues LSU has dealt with publicly regarding sexual assault and other issues related to Title IX.

Things change quickly in these situations, and the truth is fluid on an hourly basis.

Timing matters.

The college football regular season will end roughly around the beginning of December. The early signing period will begin on December 15. That will create a small window for a new coach to take over, hire assistants and secure as many of the recruits that are currently committed to LSU as possible. They’ll also want to try and keep uncommitted prospects warm for a final push through the February ’22 signing day. Perspective candidates for this job may be in contention for the CFB playoff. And if they make it, they will certainly want to coach those games out with their team. They also will not want to tell their team of any plans to leave. Can LSU and Woodward manage that kind of gap in announcement? In the long run it would be worth it to make the right hire, but that could be difficult to manage in the short-term, especially with an antsy public.

That offers an advantage to candidates that can make the quick jump after the regular season. It won’t be THE deciding factor in the process, but it is something that Woodward must consider.

Fit matters more.

A good coach can succeed anywhere, but that doesn’t mean he needs to try every job. Every place is different. Different stakes, different stakeholders and its own idiosyncrasies. The coach (and his family) has to not only execute the model discussed above but understand the minor details. How do you navigate relationships with high school coaches? Politicians? Boosters? All of these individual questions are what people talk about when they talk about whether a coach is the right fit. Some coaches don’t like being recognized in public. Some very much do. Others have no use for a glass of bourbon with a top booster. Others love to glad-hand. Some coaches (or their wives) don’t want to live too far from parents or siblings. Others are used to picking up the family and moving where the work is. The right coach should understand and be comfortable with everything that goes with being the head man at LSU.

This is a college football job, not an NFL job.

We’ve seen the mention of names like Bill O’Brien or Joe Brady in connection with LSU. But something to keep in mind is that the NFL and college football are very different businesses. An NFL coach has as much time as he needs to create a gameplan that is as detailed as it needs to impart to professional athletes, many of which make more than him. He has a general manager, that, in most instances, picks his roster for him based on a rigid salary cap structure. A college football coach has 20 hours of practice time to teach a gameplan to a team of 18-to-22-year-old college students that he himself is responsible for selecting, training and developing over the course of four to five years. At LSU, how the coach selects and recruits those players will play a more significant role in his success than any other skill he may possess. A coach that has shown a propensity for bad personnel decisions, or one that doesn’t enjoy recruiting, will not work here.

Another prevailing narrative in this discussion is Woodward’s reputation. Big game hunter. Flashy hires. Home runs. I won’t claim to know the man, and if I had any real idea who he’d hire I’d be placing a bet instead of writing this. But if he has any thoughts in his head besides “is he the right coach for this job,” Woodward is making a mistake.

The last three head coaches at LSU have national titles, and none of them were the first choice of the AD that hired them.

Don’t let ego or insecurity get in the way of making the right decision. Big names and big contracts win press conferences, but coaches (and the people that hire them) are judged on how they win games and compete for championships. It does not matter how anyone reacts when the hire is made — whether they’ve heard of the coach or where he comes from. If he wins, they’ll be happy, and if he doesn’t, he’ll be fired. And Woodward will follow.

The LSU athletic director was an immensely popular hire when he arrived in 2019. Fans were excited, and it was truly a winning press conference. But how he handles this transition and finds the Tigers’ next head coach will ultimately be the story of his tenure.

Coming soon, I’ll have more thoughts on some of the rumored coaching candidates.