If Only This Happened Every Weekend: Week 10 College Football Betting Recap
Wow. Yesterday was a really, really good day. I also had a great week 9, but a few of those wins were lucky. In week 10 it played out exactly as I handicapped, both from a numbers perspective and from the narrative. Further, I didn’t bet games that I saw as best bets from people I respect, but that I didn’t have a great feeling about — I had the discipline to stay away from the games I had no business betting.
Following the games, I like to review the box scores vs my initial handicap and see what I can learn for future weeks. Below I’ve pasted the text from my initial picks, my additional comments reviewing the outcome vs my handicap are in italics.
2 Unit Bets:
Boston College +2.5 @ Syracuse: This is a relatively straightforward handicap for me. At first glance this line is saying that BC and Cuse are a pick on a neutral field, I’m not buying that. Despite BC playing with a third-string QB I don’t see the Cuse defense being able to stop the BC run game. BC has a defense that is susceptible to big plays but Cuse no longer has the weapons now QB to execute on any big plays. Further, Cuse is outside the top 100 FBS teams in red zone scoring. I don’t see Cuse winning this game and have BC as my top bet of the weekend. I would also add them into teasers and be very comfortable taking the money line.
WIN +2 units: Once we got past two early turnovers in its own territory Boston College literally ran wild on Cuse and this game played out exactly as I handicapped. BC ran for 496 yards! 496, that’s not a typo…in one game. Wow, Syracuse SUCKS. BC averaged 7.6 YPC, Dillon went 35/242/3 and Bailey 16/172/2. Bailey averaged almost 11 YPC. While Syracuse did put up 448 yards of offense, and Tommy DeVito went 25/36 for 289 and 3 TDs with no interceptions it really doesn’t matter when your defense gives up almost 700 yards and the other team has 44 points AT HALFTIME.
What We Learned: We knew Cuse was overvalued but it really sucks…especially the run D. The fact that this team started the season ranked 15th was a joke. I don’t want to read too much into BC, but when facing teams that struggle against the run BC can hang, if playing a team that can stuff the run (see Miami), BC will struggle.
Virginia +2.5 @ UNC: This is a very similar handicap to the BC/Cuse game. The line implies these are evenly matched teams on a neutral field and I just don’t see it. While UNC has outperformed preseason expectations, they aren’t ready to be put on the same level as a very well coached Virginia team with a defense that’s top-3 in the ACC. Perhaps UNC is still being overvalued in the market based on its outright wins as a dog vs South Carolina and Miami to start the season, as well as its impressive showing hosting Clemson. However, since that Clemson game UNC has a win over Georgia Tech (meaningless), a loss at Virginia Tech and an incredibly lucky 3-point win hosting Duke last weekend. While Virginia is coming off a 7-point loss at Louisville, they are two weeks removed from beating that same Duke team 48–14 after closing as a 3.5 point favorite.
While I see this as a low-scoring game, if one team is going to win by more than a FG I see that team as Virginia. I’d also strongly consider the first half money line of Virginia +0.5. UNC and Freshman QB Howell have performed better in the second half this year, however, I give the coaching advantage to Virginia so I’m not sure how sustainable that is in this match-up.
WIN +2 units/+4 units on the day: The handicap was right, Virginia was and is the better team, however, this game was way higher scoring than I anticipated and Howell and the UNC passing game consistently made me nervous.
Both teams were able to move the ball at will, especially through the air. UNC racked up 539 yards of total offense to UVA’s 517. UNC had 353 passing yards and another 186 on the ground to 383 and 134 for Virginia. The reason UVA won ultimately came down to defense, specifically Virginia’s ability to limit UNC in the redzone and on fourth down. Virginia coverted 4 of its 5 redzone trips for scores and also converted its only 4th down attempt, UNC, on the other hand, came up empty on all three of its redzone attempts and was also denied on its only 4th down conversion attempt. That’s better defensive talent and better coaching.
Single Unit Bets:
Miami +3 @ Florida State: Miami is simply a better team than its record and handicapping indicates. This is a legit defense going up against a Florida State team that still hasn’t fixed its o-line issues from last year. I think this line is too high and make this game a pick. Miami came through for me last week with an outright win at Pitt and I’m rolling with the Canes again this week.
WIN +1 unit/+5 units on the day: The only downside to this bet is that the market will finally be catching up to Miami as the clear second-best team in the ACC (which isn’t saying much). FSU could not handle Miami’s defensive front seven in the 27–10 loss. Florida State had 31 yards rushing on 41 attempts. That’s under one yard-per-carry! Miami didn’t fare much better as it averaged under two yards-per-carry, but with over 350 yards passing this was a sweat-free cover in an outright win for the road underdog.
TCU +3 @ OK State: I don’t feel great about this game and the only reason I’m taking it is to hedge my futures on OK State over 7 wins and TCU under 7.5 wins. Ideally, TCU loses and covers, though that seems too good to be true.
LOSE -1 unit/+4 units on the day: Nothing really to say here. I had no feel for this game and the bet was purely a hedge against my season win-total futures. I can’t figure either team out and I hate taking either of them as favorites.
Washington +3.5 vs Utah: Washington at home is tough. This is still an extremely well coached team with a lot of talent. Oregon was very lucky to get a win in Seattle and Utah is coming off a year where they lost to Washington twice. Utah has future NFL talent all over its defense but I think the Washington O-Line can hang with the Utah D-Line. Pair that with Hundley’s injury and the Washington advantages for home field and coaching and I’m taking the points.
LOSE -1 unit/+3 units on the day: This one looked really good with UW leading 21–13 late in the 3Q. After UW recovers a Utah fumble the next two plays are: a sack for a 12-yard loss and a 39-yard interception returned for a TD. Despite that, the Huskies still lead 21–19 in the fourth, at home, so I’m thinking that the +3.5 is looking good. Unfortunately, after a UW 3-and-out, a Utah TD, another UW 3-and-out, and another Utah TD I was wrong. This is the second late home crumble for Washington and they are approaching my ‘do-not-bet’ list.
Under 45.5 Army @ Air Force: Service Academy unders hit at an insane clip, even after the inevitable line move. Army sucks this year and I’m very comfortable with this under.
WIN +1 unit/+4 units on the day: This was too easy. Seriously, unders for service academies are usually money-good. Unders when service academies play each other are money in the bank.
Money Line Parlay:
Wake -290 vs NC State, Pitt -310 @ Georgia Tech, Memphis -220 vs SMU: +159
3-Team 6 pt Teaser:
BC +8.5, Georgia PK, Virginia +8.5, +160
WIN and WIN: these two turned my very good weekend into a great weekend. As far as takeways go, NC State really sucks, we already knew Georgia Tech really sucks and nothing from Saturday changed that. I thought Memphis was simply the better team, and the line movement indicated that sharps thought the same. Memphis is good, and should win the AAC title game, that said, SMU showed a lot coming back from that deficit. As far as Georgia/Florida goes, I just didn’t see Georgia losing that game. I still think they one of the four best teams in college football and I will likely be taking them against Auburn and in the SEC title game.
+720 units on the day
