BTC Bear Market Update… Some numbers to ponder.

PAST BEAR NUMBERS

I’ve been looking at some numbers recently on past bear markets for BTC. I am surprised there is not already some good blog posts out there somewhere on this. In my opinion, we have seen three major bear markets in BTC in recent history. You could argue there were more prior to the one that started June 2011, but the market was so small back then that it is hard to compare them to today’s market. Two were VERY long, the third was very short comparatively. They all retraced anywhere from 68% to 91% from the high for an average of 82%. The days to the bottom were anywhere from 82 to 622 for an average of 291 days to the bottom!

CURRENT BEAR NUMBERS

In our current bear market we have retraced 70%, so we are near the average retracement percentage. The days to the bottom, if the ~$6K level turns out to be the bottom was only 51 days, which would be the shortest by 31 days.

Below are the google sheets with all of this info compiled:

PAST BEAR MARKETS DATA

2018 BTC BEAR MARKET DATA

HOW AM I USING THIS INFORMATION?

In trading I am strongly against using absolutes. I would never say with 100% certainty what will happen, because as anyone who has been around for a while knows there is no certainties particularly in crypto markets. That being said I do lean towards another base lower. I know the recent rally looks very convincing and sentiment is strong right now. The second most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that we have bottomed, but will need to retest the lows of this current base. Whether that means all the way to 6K or just a retest of say 8K I don’t know. The third scenario, and one that I personally would put at a low probability is that we never retest in this base and begin to climb back to new highs and a new bull market very shortly. Anything is possible, but in my view that is very unlikely.

This is a chart I posted in my Discord a week ago. Since then the price has run up to $11,300. The point I am trying to make is still applicable though, and I don’t want to make a new chart so this will have to work :) The vertical lines are the dates from the previous base that key levels formed.

BASE REVERSAL POTENTIAL AREAS

JUST MY OPINION

This, as I said is just my opinion. I remain open to any possibility as I always do. However, I do lean towards at least one more flush lower. I know that is not a popular opinion at all right now. Just wanted to share what I have observed.


Originally published at Speculate Freedom.