fix.

Fight the Flu More — Terrorism, Less

Billy Beaver

1

They should use “expected value”, which takes into account both everyday risks and low probability but highly damaging events like a nuclear exchange or great power war. To calculate expected value you multiply the likelihood of an event by the resulting deaths. If the chance of a nuclear exchange between the U.S. and Russia was 1% in any given year and the exchange would kill 200 million people, the expected value would be 2 million lives per year.