Glengarry Glen Loss
Bulls 106 Celtics 102 (Bulls lead series 1–0)
In another post I inducted the very good and very profane movie Glengarry Glen Ross into the Movie Victory (or Loss) Index.
If you didn’t (or don’t want to) read the other post which I conveniently linked to in the previous sentence, I’ll quote the important bit here:
So let me introduce the newest entry to the Movie Analogy Victory Index. The win last night was a Bruce and Harriet Nyborg victory.
Glengarry Glen Ross is a movie that’s mostly remembered for its cast that’s pretty much the Hollywood equivalent of the Golden State Warriors: Al Pacino, Ed Harris, Kevin Spacey, Alan Arkin, Jack Lemmon, Alec Baldwin, and Alec Baldwin’s Brass Testicles. It’s also remembered for its frequent use of F-words, C-words, and words beginning with C and ending with “-ocksucker.”
The plot revolves around a cadre real estate salesmen who have 24 hours to sell a bunch of land. At the end of 24 hours, the two salesmen who sell the least amount of land will be fired. Here’s the most famous scene from the movie, which sets the plot up nicely. It also features career-performances from Alec Baldwin and his aforementioned brass testicles:
The four salesmen (Lemmon, Pacino, Harris, and Arkin) become increasingly desperate over the course of the movie as their fate approaches. Each resorts to different, increasingly smarmier and duplicitous tactics to sell land to people over the phone.
Halfway through the movie someone breaks into the office manager’s (Kevin Spacey) office and steals a stack of contact information for potential clients (“leads”). The thief turns out to be Jack Lemmon, the oldest, most weathered, and most desperate salesman. His tactics are outdated and he’s on a wicked streak of bad luck. He also (allegedly) has a sick daughter whom he’s trying to support. He becomes increasingly reckless and desperate over the course of the movie, resulting in him breaking in, stealing the leads, and selling them to the competition.
He only gets caught by a slip of his tongue, but he thinks he’s alright, because that same night he breaks into the office he managed to close a sale of $82,000 worth of land to Bruce and Harriet Nyborg. In one of the film’s most pivotal scenes, Kevin Spacey is able to extract a confession to the break in from Lemmon, as well as crush his spirits by revealing to him that Bruce and Harriet Nyborg are, in fact, wackos. Lemmon, exasperated, asks Spacey about the check he got from the Nyborgs.
“Frame it. It’s worthless.”
Shit.
Here’s the scene:
Naturally, I went on to brilliantly explain that the Bulls’ victory against the Jazz the previous night was nothing to write home about since crucial pieces of the Jazz’s core were out with injury that game. The victory was a fine confidence booster, but that’s about it. In other words, it didn’t mean that the bad streak they’ve been riding all season was suddenly over.
Now I have to make the case (again) for this game against the Celtics.
This time, Bulls fans are the Jack Lemmon character: desperate for something to break their way. Now, when something finally does go their way, (a playoff victory), something that finally signals that things were never as bad as they seemed, that all their desperation and sorrow is finally over, that the Bulls actually have a chance to come roaring back into the Eastern Conference power they once were or expected to be, I have to be Kevin Spacey:
Frame it. It’s worthless.
It’s a single game. The Celtics played poorly and the Bulls played unsustainably well.
But let me say this: like Jack Lemmon in Glengarry Glen Ross, the Bulls’ tactics were on point. There’s one major way to hurt the Celtics: rebounding. The Bulls rebounding exceedingly well. In fact, I’d say that they rebounded so well that there’s no way they could possibly rebound that well in another game this series.
That, paired with the extenuating circumstances surrounding the series and the fact that the Bulls can still win three fucking games and still lose the series, should suggest to people that this isn’t really a sign of anything. There’s still six more to go, so slow your roll people.
Now that I’ve said that, let me continue and finally allow myself to gush and admit that that game was the best fucking thing I’ve seen all week. And I saw Bridesmaids for the 30th time this week.
Here are five major takeaways from this game, some good, some bad:
1. Rebounding
The Bulls had a 45.5% offensive rebound rate, which means they rebounded 45.5% of their own misses. In other words, when they missed a shot, they got the ball back 45.5% of the time. In even other words, every time the Bulls missed a shot, the Celtics were able to snag the ball only 54.5% of the time. That’s really bad. Overall the Bulls out-rebounded the Celtics at a rate close to 150%. The Bulls pulled down 53 while the Celtics nabbed only 36. Robin Lopez did his best Batman Lopez impression (I’m sorry), vacuuming in eight offensive boards himself.
2. Power forwards.
The Bulls have two players gobbling up minutes at power forward: Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. One is better than the other. Thing is, the one who’s better than the other varies night to night. Sometimes Mirotic is swishing and dishing from downtown while Bobby lays more bricks than Montresor. Last night it was the opposite: Mirotic shot 1-for-9 overall including 0-for-5 from deep; Portis, conversely, went 8-for-10 overall and 3-for-4 from deep. I admire head coach Fred Hoiberg’s decision to roll with Portis during the closing minutes of the game, but knowing Hoiberg I wouldn’t be surprised if he talks himself into starting Portis next game, which would be basketball malpractice. Why? Well, because Mirotic is a better three-point shooter. In fact, he’s the only respectable three-point shooter besides Jimmy Butler in the starting lineup. If you disagree with this, as in, if you think Portis is just as good a three-point shooter as Mirotic, here are a few things I want to say to you:
One: Thank you for reading. I really appreciate it.
Two: You shouldn’t base opinions on one game.
Three: Have you ever watched the Bulls?
Four: It doesn’t matter what you think. Opponents still know Mirotic is more of a threat from deep than Portis, which spaces the defense out which gives players like Butler more room to operate. Why? Because defenders stay closer to Mirotic when he’s on the arc. They won’t leave him because they know he’ll shoot (and sometimes make) a three.
In fact, Butler and Mirotic shared the floor for 1107 minutes this season (prior to the playoffs). In those minutes, the Bulls scored at a rate of 112.4 points per 100 possessions and allowed only 100.4 points per 100 possessions.
(Translation: if the Bulls played a game of only 100 possessions, and Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic played those 100 possessions, the Bulls would win 112.4 to 100.4.) That’s good.
On the other hand, Butler and Portis shared the floor for 532 minutes. The offense scored 99 points per 100 possessions and the defense allowed 106.2 points per 100. That’s bad.
Four: He may very well be a better shooter from deep than Mirotic, but, as mentioned, no one thinks so, which is what ultimately matters because that informs how they defend them.
My guess is that at least one of these two things will happen next game:
One: Hoiberg starts Portis.
Two: Mirotic outplays Portis.
3. Turnovers.
The Bulls had 16 turnovers last night and the Celtics had 15. That’s 31 total. That’s really bad.
4. Bench play.
One way the Bulls and Celtics are similar is that their success depends largely on their best player. For instance, the Celtics’ offense scores 116.7 points per 100 possessions when Isaiah Thomas is on the floor. That’s really really good. But when he’s on the bench, the Celtics score only 102.3 points in the same amount of possessions. That’s really really bad: a 14-point swing because of one player is enormous.
It’s similar for the Bulls: they’re over six points better on offense when Butler is on the floor and over five points stingier on defense with Butler. Overall, the Bulls are 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the floor. The Celtics are 4 points better overall with Thomas, but that’s only because he’s a defensive liability. So the Bulls should be worse on both ends without Butler, but the Celtics should be worse on offense without Thomas but still good on defense. In fact, the Celtics have a seventh-best bench in the league according to net rating (difference between offensive and defensive rating), with a 3.1 net rating. The Bulls have the 14th-best bench, with a 0.1 net rating (which means they pretty much allow the same amount of points as they score).
This wasn’t the case last night.
Here’s a chart putting the two teams’ starter and bench net ratings side-by-side:
Specifically, net rating is the difference between the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions and the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions.
Why 100 possessions? Two reasons:
- 100 is a nice round number.
- Translating every team’s numbers into 100 possessions enables easy comparisons between teams. It strips a team’s statistics of variables like pace. Otherwise, comparing a fast team’s offense to a slow team’s offense would be like comparing the price of oranges in Euros to the price of oranges in dollars.
With this in mind, if the Bulls’ starters played 100 possessions, they would have been outscored by around 29 points, as opposed to the Celtics’ starters, who would have scored around 19 more points than they’d have allowed.
The benches are the opposite: the Bulls were good while the Celtics were bad.
Another way to measure a team’s output when a player or group of players is on the floor is a stat called plus-minus. Plus-minus is a little easier to understand than net rating. Plus-minus is a stat that measures how a team fares when a single player is on the floor. So, for instance, Jimmy Butler’s plus-minus was -3 for this game. That means the Bulls were outscored by three points when Butler was on the floor. Jerian Grant’s plus-minus is 11, which means the Bulls outscored the Celtics by 11 during his minutes on the floor this game.
Note: The minutes here are listed as numbers, not minutes. So, for instance, Bobby Portis’s 29.17 minutes is a close translation of 29 minutes and 11 seconds (29 is 29 and :11=11/60=.17).
Each of the four Bulls’ bench players logged a positive plus-minus during their time on the court. Translation: they scored more points as a team when they were on the court than they allowed as a team.
In short, the Celtics’ bench was terrible while the Bulls’ bench was great. Expect this to change a bit. I wouldn’t expect too many minutes from Gerald Green, Jonas Jerebko, or Tyler Zeller for the rest of the series. Jae Crowder’s five fouls forced Celtics Coach Brad Stevens to toy with his rotations.
5. Sustainability.
Everything broke right for the Bulls last night: Butler was able to overcome the asphyxiating Boston perimeter defense to score 30; the Bulls out-rebounded Boston at a 3:2 ratio; one of the Portis/Mirotic pairing showed up; the Bulls shot over 30% from deep; and their bench destroyed the Celtics’ superior bench. They did all of these things and still only beat the Celtics by four. They played well, but I’m still skeptical that they’ll be able to grab one or two, let alone three, more victories from this Celtics team.
Next game I expect better bench play from Boston, fewer offensive rebounds for the Bulls, and fewer fouls from Jae Crowder. That should be enough to swing the game in Boston’s favor, unfortunately.
Thanks for reading, mom and dad.
