There are just 22 days to go until Americans head to the polls (some are already doing so by mail and early voting). It’s a familiar story by now — just like Remain and Hillary Clinton were on course to win in 2016, so too is Joe Biden. According to ‘conventional’ measures, such as FiveThirtyEight (538) and Real Clear Politics (RCP), Biden is on course to defeat the incumbent by a substantial margin. In the past month, we have been greeted with headlines declaring, ‘The coming Biden landslide’; 538 has given Biden an 86% chance of winning the election. In most battleground states, the RCP average gives Biden a comfortable lead over Trump. …

William Bishop

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