Texas 2022 Primary Analysis
Our undergraduate and graduate student team of UH Election Lab researchers has been combing the data to compare Texas turnout over time.
Here are some of our findings:
The following graph shows the percentage turnout in each party primary between 2010 and 2022. Primary turnout has rarely risen above 10% since 2010. That said, turnout has been better in the last two midterm cycles than before that. Turnout in the Republican primary slightly outpaces Democratic turnout.
The number of voters in every consecutive voting cycle has grown, changing the percent turnout figures. Perhaps the large upswing in Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in the 2018 election is a result of the steady influx of new Texans from other states, which may not have the same political tendencies as long-time Texans. There is a similar story for Republicans in 2022.
Turnout faltered a bit for Democrats from 2022 as a percentage compared to blockbuster turnout in 2018. For Republicans, the percent turnout has been steadily increasing in midterms since 2014.
In the following figure, we map change in turnout by county. From 2010 to 2018, Democratic turnout is change higher in larger urban areas but also suburban areas. But turnout in rural areas for the Republican primary often far outpaces that of Democrats in any area.
In raw numbers, Republican turnout is much higher, about 3x higher. But Democratic turnout has been increasing as a share of total primary turnout.
The following graph shows turnout by party in the last four midterm cycles. Republican turnout is consistently higher than Democratic turnout. Democrats narrowed the gap in 2018 but the gap widened again in 2022.
Looking at 2018 alone, Beto O’Rourke’s messaging/campaigning efforts were much more successful compared to past efforts from the Democratic party in Texas, suggesting a brighter future for Democratic turnout in general for the state. Although 2022 wasn’t as high as 2018, it passed the million vote mark. Republican turnout in 2022 was likely higher than other years because of a competitive top of the ticket gubernatorial primary.
In the following figure, we map raw turnout by county between 2010 and 2018. Raw turnout for Republicans is higher in rural areas of west Texas, far east Texas, and south Texas (not including urban counties). Largest growth for Democrats was in in urban and suburban areas.
Comparing turnout to other states (graph below of 2018 comparison) puts Texas’ turnout in perspective. As we can see, Texas falls on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of overall voter turnout. Most noticeably, we see that although Texas shares one of the largest eligible voter populations, along with New York, they share two of the lowest turnout percentages. Neither state has competitive general elections since both are dominated by one party or the other.
Texas had strong turnout in 2018 (compared to our recent past turnout) but was modest by comparative state standards for both parties.
The following graph is a state by state comparison of turnout in the 2020 general (presidential) election. The graph shows a significant upward trend of voter turnout in Texas. Texas turnout in the general was over 50% percent — this number seems to represent voters’ strong desire to have a say in the 2020 election.
Most Texans don’t vote. It’s a sad fact, but cycle after cycle more than 80% of Texans do not vote in primaries. Considering how important primaries are to who runs (and usually wins) in the general election, this is a troubling fact. Non-voting is less a problem in 2022 than it was in 2014 but is still high.
So, what’s next? The following is a table of general election turnout in primary years. Turnout in the general in primary years varies since 1993 but, except for specific competitive years, rarely rises above 40%.
We can see from the turnout data that Republican voter turnout is much higher in primary years in comparison to Democrat voter turnout excluding 2018 which was a specific competitive year for the top of the ticket US Senate race.
