Movement in Hillary’s Direction

This week has found several national polls moving in Clinton’s direction. McClatchy had a poll out today that had her up 48–41. An NBC poll earlier in the week had her up by 7 points (48–41 as well). An AP poll had Clinton up 50–44 — a 6 point lead.

The result of these favorable polls is that the Real Clear Politics average has started moving in Clinton’s direction. Their average is below and you can see her line go up and Trump’s down starting on September 19.

Now, there are still caveats her. First, RCP is my least favorite poll aggregator, in large part because it features a lot more bumps and wiggles than others. Thus, it presumes the electorate is changing more than it actually does. In short, this could be a premature movement. That being said, it seems to fit with the change in the media environment this week, which has moved back to neutral or slightly pro-Clinton after two to three weeks of anti-Hillary media narratives.

Second, state polls have not been as good for Clinton this week, so your mileage may vary.

One final note: the first debate is on Monday. Political science research has repeatedly shown that debates do not move polls much at all, one way or the other. Will that be discussed in any of the coverage? Of course not, that would require political reporters to think that people who study American politics on a daily basis have anything to teach them.

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