NBC Poll Has Hillary Up 5 Points

NBC released a poll this morning (September 20) that has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points.

Clinton 50; Trump 45

Clinton 45; Trump 40; Johnson 10; Stein 4 in the 4 way poll.

This is pretty close to what I think the final margin will look like.

Monmouth also released a poll in Florida today. They have Hillary up 46–41 (6 for Johnson; 1 for Stein). That seems a little too good for Hillary, as Florida is usually a point or two more Republican than the nation as a whole.

But it is particularly important from an electoral vote standpoint. If Trump loses Florida, his ability to get to 270 electoral votes is nearly impossible.