When You Don’t Know What to Do, Solve a Problem
Introduction
As a new people manager or an experienced manager in a new organization, one of your key tasks is to figure out what is expected of you and to deliver results. This can be daunting in the absence of explicit direction. But, as is the case with life, there is no step-by-step instruction manual for people managers. In the absence of guidance, it is your job to bring clarity to your role and build a path forward.
However, that’s easier said than done. Figuring out what to do can be difficult, especially in rapidly changing organizations. The good news is there’s a solution to this dilemma. When you don’t know what to do, solve a problem. This note will show you how.
A Problem-Solving Framework
“…plurality should not be posited without necessity.” — William of Ockham, Philosopher
In order to figure out what problems you want to solve and generate solutions for solving them, you need an effective problem-solving framework. While there’s no shortage of frameworks, good ones are hard to find.
Generally, a framework’s quality is proportional to its simplicity and applicability. You can also judge a model by the problems it has solved. Using these criteria, the Kepner-Tregoe problem-solving framework stands above the rest.
Drs. Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe developed their model in the 1950’s and since then it has been used to solve the hairiest of problems, including to troubleshoot the Apollo 13 crisis and safely guide the hobbled spacecraft back to earth. If it worked for NASA, it is likely to work for you.
The Kepner-Tregoe framework consists of four rational analyses to help you identify problems, generate solutions, and mitigate risks. They are: Situation Analysis, Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Potential Problem Analysis.
Below, I will walk you through each step, with examples along the way. I have intentionally chosen to use an array of examples, instead of a single one throughout, to highlight the broad applicability of the model. At the end of the note, you will find tips and tricks for using the model. For the skimmers, I have made liberal use of headings and graphics to aid in quick digestion of the content, though it’s unlikely you’re reading this sentence if you fall into that category.
Step 1: Situation Analysis
As a new people manager or an experienced one who is new to an organization, it is crucial that you first understand your environment before beginning to solve problems, or else risk spinning your wheels on the wrong problems. To get a sense of your environment, you must dive deeply into all available information about current and past activities, priorities, and goals within and outside your organization.
In Kepner-Trego, step one — Situation Analysis — is dedicated to doing just that. Below are the things you should consider when assessing your situation.
Understand Priorities at Every Level
Study the mission, vision, values, priorities, and goals at every level of your organization. And think about how each level is connected to the other.
Understand What Others Are Doing
Now that you understand your organization’s priorities, look externally. What are other companies doing in your space? What are industry and academia doing? What’s making headlines? Such questions will help you uncover the external influences that shape your environment.
Examine Processes and Standard Operating Procedures
What tools, flows, and processes does your team, organization, and company have for getting things done? How do people share and ingest information? The answers to these questions will help you understand how things work. And knowing how things work is the first step to understanding what isn’t working well.
Consider Future Events
As an analyst for the Department of Defense, I wrote national security assessments for senior-level policymakers and defense officials. Part of my job was anticipating the needs of these stakeholders. To do this, I would study their travel schedules, the topics of upcoming Congressional committee meetings, and their organizational and individual priorities.
With this knowledge in hand, it became clearer what topics would be relevant and impactful for me to write about. For example, if the Secretary of Defense was slated to travel to X country to attend a leadership summit two months hence, I could be relatively confident that he would be interested in reading intelligence assessments about the host country and any threats there, especially in the days leading up to his travel.
The same approach can be used at your company to help you understand your environment, spot potential problems, and identify opportunities. For example, if you work on the privacy policy team, and your CEO is scheduled to testify before Congress in a few months about the company’s privacy initiatives, you may want to kick off a privacy-related initiative.
Assess Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats
What are you, your team, and organization good at? Where are you weak? Taking a step back to consider the strengths of your broader team and organization will help you identify areas where you can add value and where you cannot.
Also consider what opportunities and threats exist. In your research thus far, have you identified a process, procedure, or problem that needed to be fixed? Were there external variables that could hinder you, your team, or your org’s planning and execution (such as an ongoing epidemic)?
A good tool for capturing these Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) is a SWOT matrix.
Identify and Question Your Assumptions
Identify key assumptions within your team, org, and company. For example, let’s imagine you’re an organization tasked with surfacing bugs and advocating for fixing them. Consider a software company whose top priority is ‘fixing what is broken.’ If your team is tasked with surfacing bugs and advocating for their resolution, you may assume that fixing what is broken means fixing bugs. For the User Experience (UX) team, however, it may mean fixing a confusing flow that frustrates users.
Is your interpretation right or is UX’s? Good question. It is good practice to explicitly state these assumptions and seek clarification.
Identify Key Stakeholders
Finally, there are very few problems that can be solved on one’s own, especially at flat, collaborative organizations like today’s top tech companies. So, you need to identify your key stakeholders and the people you will need buy-in from to get things done. A simple stakeholder matrix is a good tool for doing so.
Step 2: Problem Analysis
Now that you understand your environment, it is time to figure out what is broken and why. This section will help you do so.
Problem Identification
The first thing you need to do is generate a list of problems. Sounds easy, right? Not so fast. Remember, you may be new to the company, a new manager, or joining a new team. So, even though you gathered reams of data in your Situation Analysis, you may be struggling with putting the pieces together. That’s OK. Here are two approaches for helping you bring your problems into focus.
Juxtapose Goals and Obstacles
Consider what you want to do (goals) and what is hindering you (obstacles).
As you can see, if you want to increase your team’s integration with product, but you’re not given a seat at the table, you have identified a problem. In this case, you are ready for the next step (root cause analysis).
However, some problems are not so easy to identify. For example, you may learn that your problem is that you don’t know what your problem is. That is perfectly normal. One thing that can help is to reframe your obstacle into a question. If your obstacle is that you don’t know why your team’s morale is low, reframe it as, “Why is my team’s morale low?” Answering that question is likely to generate at least one problem.
Expected Outcomes Versus Reality
Another useful approach for identifying problems is to ask yourself, “What is supposed to be happening?” and “What is happening? For example, imagine that your iPhone won’t turn on. Is the battery dead or is the phone broken? If you plug it in, and the charging light blinks, then your phone was dead. But what if you plug it in and no light appears? Is your phone broken, is your charging cable broken, or is the outlet broken? You grab your friend’s iPhone and plug it in. Her charging light appears. Thus, your phone is probably broken because the charging cable and outlet work. Looks like you need a new phone.
Identify the Root Cause
Now that you have identified your problem, how do you know it is the right problem? You probably don’t know. That’s why you need to conduct a root cause analysis to ensure you’re solving the right problem. My favorite method for this is the ‘5 Whys’ approach.
5 Whys
The ‘5 Whys’ approach to root cause analysis is used to explore the causes and effects underpinning a problem. It’s my favorite method because it is simple and effective. Plus, it gives me the opportunity to enact the inquisitive nature of a 5-year-old, as you’ll see.
You begin by stating your problem and asking why it is happening. You take the answer to that question and, again, ask “why?” Continue in this manner 3–5 times until you have identified the root cause of your problem. Using the example above about product partners not understanding what you do, your 5 Whys may look like the table below.
Step 3: Decision Analysis
Now that you have identified the root cause, it is time to generate a list of potential solutions, compare them against one another, and choose the best one. And that’s what step 3 is all about.
Generate Potential Solutions
Generally, the number of solutions you generate will be proportional to the quality of your decision. If you’re so abled, this is where your creativity will pay off. If you are lacking on that front, here are two ways to get the creative juices flowing.
Structured Brainstorming
Structured brainstorming is one of the most effective ways to identify novel solutions. Start by gathering a group of at least two and no more than 10 people. Write your root cause on a white board, distribute post-it notes, and ask the group to silently write down as many solutions as possible in ten minutes, placing each sticky note on the white board. It’s important this is done silently to avoid groupthink.
Next, appoint two group members to cluster the sticky notes into categories or themes. This should take 2–5 minutes, depending on the number of ideas generated. These themes and the associated solutions will be compared against one another in the next step.
Mind Map
Another useful tool for generating solutions is a mind map. A mind map is a hierarchical, creative approach to visualize the interconnectedness of ideas. Start by writing your root cause in the center of a page. Branch out and list potential workstreams or solutions and initiatives associated with each. Mind mapping works best when you release your inhibitions and write the first thing that comes to mind.
Choose the Best Solution
Much of your success as a people manager depends on your ability to make good decisions. Thus, when it comes to choosing a solution, you shouldn’t leave it to chance. Instead, use a structured approach to ensure you’re selecting the best solution possible. Two great approaches for doing so are pros and cons lists and decision matrices.
Pros and Cons
Create a list of pros and cons for each solution. The pros will be the positive expected outcomes of a given course of action, while the cons will be the expected negative outcomes. If you’re having a difficult time coming up with pros and cons, ask yourself what you stand to gain or lose under each scenario. What are the drawbacks and tradeoffs? What is the level of effort or complexity associated with each course of action? Once your list is complete, examine the pros and cons and choose the one with the most upside.
The drawback to pros and cons lists are they do not explicitly weigh pros and cons; they treat them the same or leave it up to the creator to arbitrarily assign value to each. Luckily, there is a way to take the subjectivity out of the process by creating a decision matrix.
Decision Matrix
If you take one thing away from this note, take the decision matrix. It is an invaluable tool that forces you to articulate your decision criteria, determine what you care about most, and objectively compare alternative solutions side-by-side to ensure you’re choosing the best solution.
To illustrate this tool, let’s pretend that your current vehicle, a Ferrari, is too small (and impractical?) for your growing family. You know you need to purchase a new vehicle, but you are unsure which route to go. Indecision is eating at you. You have narrowed down your options to a minivan, 4Runner, and BMW X5. Which one should you purchase? Decisions, decisions. Time to break out the trusty decision matrix.
Begin by identifying your decision criteria. Obviously, safety is a priority, but so too is performance. You’ve driven a sports car and want to sustain some excitement in your life. You don’t have an unlimited budget, so cost is something you care about. You also want to take the vehicle on ski trips, so you’d like it to be all-wheel-drive.
Once you’ve identified your decision criteria, give each a weight based on its importance to you. For example, if safety is the most important, give it a 10; if color is not that important, give it a 1–3. Next, list each of your options along the x axis of your matrix and grade each criterion as it relates to each option. Then multiply each score by the associated criterion weight to get a weighted score. Finally, sum the weighted scores.
Phew, the minivan didn’t win. According to our matrix, the 4Runner scored highest and thus is our winner!
Decision matrices are especially good for group decision making because their inherent objectivity and transparency engenders confidence in the decision-making process. It’s clear what criteria were considered, how they were scored, and why one option beat out another.
Step 4: Potential Problem Analysis
You made it to the final but often overlooked step of analyzing potential problems. Your inclination to move to implementation is likely stronger than ever. But be patient. The time you spend on Step 4 will save you loads of trouble in the long run. This is where you will identify, assess, and determine strategies for handling risk.
Risk identification and Assessment
List the potential risks of your proposed solution. In the car example above, we may identify as a risk the potential for the car to break down or not being able to afford the car payment. If you’re having difficulty identifying risks, conduct a brainstorming session.
Next, examine the probabilities and consequences of the risks you identified. For our example, the probability of our new vehicle breaking down is fairly low, but the consequences could be high if the malfunction wasn’t covered under warranty or if we broke down in a dangerous part of town with our newborn in the car.
The probability of not being able to afford the car payment is low if we’re employed, but what if we lost our job? Would we be able to afford the car? If we default on the loan, the consequence is a ding to our credit, which would restrict our purchasing power.
Risk Prioritization
Use a risk matrix to prioritize your risks by their probability and consequence. Where each risk falls on the matrix will determine your strategy for dealing with it, as outlined in the next section.
De-Risk
There are five strategies for dealing with risk, and you need to choose a strategy for each risk you’ve identified:
Assume
Assuming a risk means that you’ve identified the risk, but you do not take action. You simply accept that it might happen and deal with the consequences if it does. This is a good strategy for low probability, low consequence risks.
Reduce
Reducing or mitigating a risk is taking proactive measures to minimize the impact of a risk so that the consequences are smaller and easier to fix. Seat belts are a good example of a risk mitigation strategy. A seat belt won’t stop the occurrence of an accident, but it will reduce the risk of injury.
Transfer
Transferring risk is offloading it to another entity. An example would be a bank that bundles a portfolio of high-risk loans and sells them to another institution, transferring risk to a third party.
Exploit
You exploit a risk when the risk has the potential for positive impact. In such cases, you want to take steps to ensure the risk occurs. For example, imagine we are building an electric vehicle and a risk is that demand may outpace supply. We could exploit this risk by stockpiling more materials, hiring more people, and building a new factory.
Avoid
Avoiding a risk is taking active measures to avoid the risk. A good example of risk avoidance is the recent postponement of international gatherings in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Event holders have determined the risk of large gatherings is too great amid a global epidemic.
Risk Monitoring
Finally, once you’ve chosen a risk strategy, you need a plan to track whether each risk is becoming more or less likely or severe. A great way to do this is to identify indicators or signposts of change and monitor them over time.
When I worked in the Intelligence Community, I used this approach to monitor national security situations around the globe and provide warning to stakeholders. The same approach can be used to monitor risks within your team or project. Here’s how it works.
Start by writing each risk on a white board. Then, gather your team and brainstorm potential events, activities, or actions you would expect to see before the risk occurred. Next, group them into thematic buckets. Once you have these indicators, document and monitor them, noting occurrences and assessing whether the risk is becoming more or less likely.
For example, say we must ship a new feature in three months, and we’ve identified a launch delay as a risk. What would we expect to see leading up to a delayed launch?
With the signposts identified, you can track them over time, noting whether you’re trending in a concerning direction that would indicate a delay. In the table above, you can see how absences, missed milestones, and a decline in commits are cause for concern.
Problem-Solving Tips
Before you embark on your problem-solving journey, here are some tips to help keep you on track.
Be flexible
There’s a military maximum that posits that no plan survives first contact with the enemy. The same is true in business. There are too many intervening variables to account for in even the most thoughtful, disciplined problem-solving process. So be flexible. You may begin by solving one problem, only to realize it’s not the most important, or that there’s a different root cause. Don’t get married to your problem (or solution). Pivot when needed.
Indecision Is a Decision
You may be overwhelmed by the number of problems you need to solve or frustrated that you don’t know what to do. When faced with these situations, don’t stand still. Take the first step.
On the surface, this may seem counter to the sage advice of not mistaking motion with progress. It is not. Taking the first step could be putting your thoughts on paper, gathering data to understand your situation, or meditating on your current situation. If taking the first step is aimed at understanding your environment, it’s not motion for motion’s sake; it’s helping you to focus on the right problems.
Two-Way and One-Way Decisions
Amazon is notoriously effective at decision-making. One reason for this is the company separates decisions into one of two categories: two-way or one-way door decisions.
Two-way door decisions are those that usually pose less risk and can easily be pulled back. You shouldn’t spend too much time deliberating on these types of decisions. A good example is new feature or simple design change. You can easily launch the feature or design, gauge its effectiveness through testing, and recall it if it harms your topline metrics.
One-way decisions, on the other hand are much more difficult to pull back. Let’s say you’re deciding where to build your new headquarters. Construction will last a year and cost $1 billion. This decision is much more difficult to pull back, especially once you’ve broken ground. You should spend more time on these sorts of decisions because failure is much more costly.
As you embark on your problem-solving journey and you contemplate solutions, consider whether they’re a one-way or two-way door.
Expedited Problem-solving
You may not have enough time to traverse all six steps of Kepner-Tregoe, and some problems may not need such a comprehensive treatment. So, use the pieces that work for you. A quick 5 Whys and decision matrix are likely sufficient for most problems you will solve.
Conclusion
As a new people manager or an experienced manager in a new organization, you may not know what is expected of you. In the absence of guidance, the onus is on you to find your way. The best place to start is to look around, find the problems in need of solving, and to solve them. Using a structured problem-solving framework will help you do so and, more importantly, ensure you’re solving the right problems.
