NM-01: Debra Haaland
Many of the highly competitive races I’m looking at are Republican-held seats that Democrats would like to flip to take the House. But it’s also important to defend currently Democratic districts. NM-01 came to my attention because it is on a list of districts that the Republican party viewed as possible targets this cycle.
Getting to the general election has already been a long story for this seat. The incumbent, Michelle Lujan Grisham, announced that she would be a candidate for governor of New Mexico in Dec 2016. This district is so heavily Democratic ( Grisham took over 65% of the vote in 2016) that much of the real competition came in the Democratic primary. Debra Haaland came out on top in a hard-fought expensive three-way primary that reflected some of the divisions in the Democratic party today.
Debra Haaland is now positioned, though, to be the first Native American woman in Congress. It’s also still unusual for a woman to succeed another woman in Congress — and in this case, no matter who wins, that’s what will happen. Haaland is well ahead of the Republican candidate in fundraising, and got an awareness boost when Obama endorsed her.
If Janice Arnold-Jones, the Republican candidate who was unopposed in the primary, expected national support, she may be disappointed now. Across New Mexico, Democrats have a financial advantage, and there’s not much sign of Republican outside money in the campaign at present. On the face of it, with the huge win by Grisham in 2016, this isn’t a likely seat to actually try to flip.
Grisham’s gubernatorial race against the Republican Steven Pearce (Republican incumbent Susana Martinez is retiring due to term limits) is more dramatic at the moment. A recent poll reports the race very close, within the margins of error. Although other polls show a good lead for Grisham, the presence of a Libertarian candidate and many undecided voter makes head-to-head polls hard to interpret as well. There’s more data about polls here.
I support Debra Haaland and want people to know about her candidacy. However, one of the initial aims of this blog included helping myself and others decide where to donate. There are other candidates who are going to, on the margins, need our small donations more that Haaland does, so that’s my decision for today. But I look forward to her vision and representation in Congress next year.
