Journey to the Source of Laughter.

Day 8. No Probability in Telling the Story Before Knowing Its End.

We have viewed the universe as a totally ordered set of states,all different by the tiniest difference; Time is observed by us as a comparision of two states (or more groups of states) by noticing the change. We observe cause and duality in the ordering by Time ,but this observed cause is not necessarily in the previous state,the event that is actually observed by us in a time interval as the supposed cause of some event taking place in another (later) time interval may involve a very large number of states of the universe (in principle even infinite but if we assume we have only finitely many events in the whole universe,then the states are on a discrete index set) .So the set of all changes in the time interval in which we observe the cause has to be seen as part of the cause ,in other words the observed cause is only a fuzzy observation (depending on many states hence many changes we did not have time to observe !) ,a similar statement holds for the observed consquence.

Now probability is naively defined by looking at the number of possible events and then stating that the probability is one in so many.More mathematically correct is to assume there is an unbiased test ,for example expressing pure coincidence by assumption, where some experiment is repeated several times and the counting of a desired result then defines the probability of that event.The problem is that in reality no experiment can be repeated in exactly the same situation,in fact the state of the universe cannot be the same after we have observed time to pass and doing an experiment always takes time.

Thus probability is a perfect correct Mathematical theory but it cannot express some reality correctly!

The going from one state to another in the universe thus has nothing to do with coincidence or probability ,it is simply the unique next state that exists,no other were possible ! Since we cannot observe the states themselves (since we can only observe in time intervals) we can never explain “why” or “how” the transition took place .Yet in our terminology one state of the universe is the unique direct cause for the next and we can never observe it!

If time does not exist in reality then the whole history of the universe exists at the same moment ,say as a picture of all the states but we are playing in the film and we observe certain changes in time.We do not know the final picture but we play a part in defining the final result in a non-deterministic way by acting with free will ,even if that result always existed outside time.If however our observed time is in some unknown way a projection of a real object,say realtime,then the conclusion before remains valid but there is the extra problem of trying to describe realtime via observed time but that will not help in getting closer to knowing the states.The “pace” of realtime is probably very much faster than our observed time,in the case of no real time you could say it has pace infinite ,if there is a realtime then its pace is probably close to infinite.Now what is the difference between two consecutive states? The inner situation of ingredients (events) in the universe is different ,I called them “tiny” differences ,probably only in one event ,but that is purely conjectural,changes in states may involve several events at the “same moment”; However it is also possible that the momentaneous pictures have structural differences,for example think that at each moment the camera would zoom in ,ie the picture is enlarged,one could say it is another version of the extending universe.The observed velocity of an object would then not be the real velocity,it would also contain information about the “extension” of the universe.

We do not have a lot of information about the transition of states in the universe.

However this interpretation clearly marks the very weak position of science with respect to a true and correct description of the reality via the existing models based on time (and everything else) being measured by real or complex numbers.

Note that time is defined as the ordered set of states and each state does not refer to a “moment” ie a time period of zero duration ,a correct definition of a moment here would just be the state of the universe selected ! One observation of ours is situated in a group of states corresponding to a time interval ,the duration of our observation ,thus two observations do not commute and two observationsin different order by different observers cannot be correctly compared because the comparision also takes time in some other interval. This induces a non-commutativity of observations which is similar to the uncertainty principle in the learning proces,in fact it is exactly that in the learning about the observations of the universe ,where the logical structure given by a causality relation is just the observed causality for events and the micro-process is the non-commutative deformation adding the interpretation in terms of the real state-wise description of “causality” that defines the deformed relation. Therefore the non-commutativity enters our description on many levels :1° via the Heisenberg incertainty relation,2°via the “logical” incertainty in the linguistic learning process,3°.via the incertainty stemming from the time interval observation of state changes as explained above.

Note that I did not plan the omnipresence of non-commutative effects as an advertisement for non-commutative geometry ! It seems that it is an effect of our cognitive activity or of the nature of reality,or of our description thereof.

It seems to be obvious that two consecutive states are not there by coincidence,most events are the same ,change happened in only a few events,perhaps even in only one, since the ordering of states appears via the smallest possible changes. As I pointed out before, the notion coincidence does not apply to the transition of states, there is only one possible next state in the picture that exists outside time . Yet the next state is non-predictable when you are in the picture because for example, the human interaction with events introduces free will effects.

So there is freedom in the universe ,even if the final result is fixed outside time !