Why do people use public transport (Buses, Taxis and Trains) ?
- unable/dislike to drive at all
- unable/dislike to drive long distances
- unable to park at destination
- temporarily incapable of driving
Nobody uses public transport for fun.
AVs will spawn a boom in ownership and stop Uber dead in its tracks, taxis, trains and buses will be a thing of the past because AVs solve all four of those problems at the same time.
I’ll have one, the partner will have one, the 18yr old will have one so they can get out of the house and have a bit of privacy with their partner, there’ll be another one that drops off/picks up the younger kids from school (no doubt with chocolate/crisps/homework scattered across the interior), when they get to 14 they aren’t going to want to share with their younger siblings so they will need one each as well.
My parents lived in a zero car household, I currently live in a three car household and this will rise to at least six in the next twelve years, sooner if AV happens.
The Tesla business model (niche premium with direct sales/support) is not scalable to the level of a Toyota or Ford, the big car companies will continue to compete (and cheat) as before, adopting new technologies as they become mature enough for integration.
Most modern cars makers have hybrid/electric capability and even their IC cars are already drive by wire, inserting AV capability (when is becomes acceptable) is as simple as putting a module in behind the stereo.