Democrats have to put up a fight for Red America
After Florida outlawed partisan gerrymandering in 2010, state politicians said, they wanted the people to draw our new electoral maps. What that meant was they wanted Right Wing Lobbyists to draw up the maps and then hand them out during town halls throughout the state.
For years my Congressional district ran from the outskirts of Panama City up along the outskirts of Tallahassee. It was a highly competitive Swing District where any good Candidate could pull off a slim margin in November. The representatives had to pay close attention to their district’s needs and there was a refreshing degree of frequent turnover between representatives.
Then the 2010 elections happened. For the first time in almost three decades, a Republican won. They then trimmed the district’s eastern portion to cut away votes from the vastly more populated and Liberal Leon County in favor of a larger strip of coastline along the Gulf of Mexico, that was populated by Conservatives. It worked at first, in 2012, the Incumbent beat a well-known and highly well-funded challenger, a former state Senator. But, then the democrats pulled a fast one and actually recruited an appealing and moderate Candidate, Gwen Graham, former US Senator Bob Graham’s daughter.
She raised Millions and won a narrow victory during the otherwise Republican landslide year of 2014. What could Republicans do? They couldn’t allow this seat to be occupied by someone who could actually be an effective representative of the area’s needs. In the end, they actually managed to cost the Democrats two seats and used the Voting Rights Act to do it.
The Courts used Republican-submitted maps to create the fifth Congressional District in order to elect a minority candidate. Which in itself is a good thing. But, they over-packed the district! The federal Voting Rights Act, says you have to put enough voters of color in a district to give candidates of color a fair shot at winning. So the Republicans just cut the liberal and minority Leon votes from the Second and placed them with the progressive liberal voters in Jacksonville Florida. They then created a new and larger second Congressional District that had an 18-point swing toward Republicans.
Frankly, all of this is academic. What is horribly distressing is the lack of party recruiting for this and other red districts. What advice would you give to the party? Well, I have a modest suggestion! It’s the same suggestion I’ve made for over ten years now. Florida Democrats need to fight. They need to recruit candidates, they need to establish mentorship programs between former legislators and future hopefuls. They must reestablish themselves in every corner of the state. But, the party seems to just accept that the 40 percent of Democratic voters won’t get a choice and focus on other districts. But in my eyes, with a party in need of new blood, wouldn’t it make sense to recruit and have them run for some of these districts? Sure they may not win, but the opposing party will have to spend resources. You will also help establish a new generation of leaders who can then run for state house seats and constitutional offices.
Look my district is the size of New Jersey, it’s a hard nut for Democrats to crack. But does that mean we shouldn’t try? I spoke to party leaders and they said they were simply going to wait for a better map. Politically that may be wise in the short term. But, long term the constant surrender of the group and focus on defense seems to be producing a heavy cost.
The conservative incumbent congressman is a medical doctor and passionate Trump supporter. He has a terrible voting record, holds no town halls in democratic areas, and thinks everything is a liberal conspiracy. He also represents a district with high poverty, has no real small donor list, and takes huge amounts from special interests.
He was challenged by a 78-year-old former Leon County commissioner who is a lovely man, but perhaps no match to the incumbent. It has been stated that a younger candidate could be more competitive. At present, no democrat has filed, no real campaign structure in play for recruitment, and there is no prospect of it happening.
My question is what would you do? What should the party do? Is there a type of Democrat who could win? Should it be challenged? Could it turn into a swing district if the party funds the candidate? My belief is yes. If the candidate properly represents the district, is able to get support from his party (even token support), and energizes his message with liberal economic issues that are actually wildly popular among red district voters and are ignored by their candidates! Yes, that Democrat has an even money chance to win.
Look I maybe wrong and I hope you’ll comment your thoughts as well. But, I’m tired of hearing about the golden old days when Democratic candidates like Lawton Chiles, Reubin Askew, and Bob Graham connected and won all of these red districts. Those voters that these candidates were able to appeal to haven’t gone away. Their worldview is still very much the same as it ever was. They were always able to be inflamed by wedge issues, yet there was always a splendid Democratic candidate there to keep their focus on pocket book issues. It’s only the Democratic party who has left the conversation. How can you run in an area when Republicans are the only ones doing the talking?