Selection Committee Must Decide Between Mind, Metrics With Wichita State
Another year, another puzzling in-or-out circumstance for the NCAA Tournament’s beloved mid-major.
As I’m writing this on Friday, Febuary 24, Gregg Marshall’s Wichita State Shockers currently stand 26–4, including 16–1 in league play. WSU is on the road to play in a very winnable road matchup against mediocre Missouri State Saturday morning, which will complete the regular season MVC conference slate. Then, it will be up to WSU to either capture a league autobid or hope for an at-large come Selection Sunday.
Similar to last season, the NCAA Tournament selection committee faces an unusual predicament regarding the Shockers, assuming Wichita State is unable to capture its second Missouri Valley Tournament title in four seasons.
Last season, under the guidance of senior guards Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, Wichita State compiled a 24–8 regular season record and entered the morning of Selection Sunday #10 in KenPom. Due to a lukewarm showing in non-conference play (a 67–50 drubbing of Utah was WSU’s only top 50 victory), Marshall’s team had to tune in to the bracket reveal with the realistic possibility of missing the tournament altogether. The committee essentially split the difference, placing Wichita in the field in a play-in game in Dayton.
The same case applies to this year’s WSU squad. Wichita figures to finish at or near #10 in KenPom by Selection Sunday with a record as strong as 29–5, if Wichita falls in the MVC championship. However, the lack of a quality victory holds the Shockers back yet again.
Marshall was unable to schedule a number of appealing non-conference opponents this year, with WSU’s toughest games coming against Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State, all of which were losses. The Shockers’ best non-league victory was a three-point win over Oklahoma (9–18), a squad that won’t be participating in either the NCAA Tournament or NIT after a Final Four appearance last season.
It’s not all bad news, though. The highest ranked mid-major teams to miss the tournament (based on KenPom and adjusted efficiency margin) are listed below, dating back to the 2002 season, the first year of KenPom. History shows that Wichita State should be comfortably in the field of 68.
Even so, Wichita’s tournament resumé simply isn’t tournament-worthy.
This has clearly been one of the weakest years for bubble teams, as Clemson, Tennessee, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt continue to hang around the tournament field despite little to no appeal on their respective resumés.
Why is the bubble so weak? Look to the mid-majors. Non-P6 leagues that typically produce at least two or more tournament teams each year have fallen short. The Mountain West is as weak as ever, the Missouri Valley was hit hard this spring after a successful 2015–16 season and the Atlantic 10 has been underwhelming sans Dayton and VCU.
The committee won’t place mid-major teams over P6 clubs unless it accomplished something throughout the course of the regular season, and that just hasn’t been the case this year. The A-10 is the only mid-major conference that expects to grab a single-digit seed for the dance. It just hasn’t been a great season for the underdogs.
When we look at Wichita State’s team sheet, a couple things quickly stand out.
First off, WSU has played just six games against top 100 RPI teams. Bubble teams such as Wake Forest (18 games vs. RPI top 100), Miami FL (15), Vanderbilt (22), Seton Hall (16) and California (12) simply have more opportunities to pick up quality victories. WSU has participated in one top 100 RPI game since January, a 86–44 home blowout of MVC foe Illinois State. Unless Colorado State, South Dakota State, Long Beach State or Illinois State win their respective conference tournaments, Wichita will finish the season without a victory over a tournament team. Not a good look.
Strength of schedule is another concern. Though schedule strength appears to have lost a bit of its value over recent years, WSU’s SOS stands out like a sore thumb when compared to ACC, SEC or Big East bubble teams. The Shockers rank 152nd in overall SOS but, surprisingly enough, its non-conference SOS is actually worse, a 186th mark.
Though this year’s Wichita squad might even be better than last season’s (24.8 adjEM to 22.5 adjEM) and the bubble is weaker than in recent years, there is still no room for error if WSU wants to return to the NCAA Tournament. I have little doubts that this is one of the best 68 teams in America, but its resumé says otherwise.
As we’ve seen in the past, venturing through non-conference play without a signature victory and relying on blasting league opponents for two months doesn’t equate to a tournament bid. The selection committee continues to say that past history is meaningless to a current year’s selection process, so the fact that Wichita has proved itself in the tournament despite its mid-major label won’t have an impact on whether it receives a bid.
If it were up to me, WSU would be in the field today. After all, Gregg Marshall is not someone I would want to anger.
