“Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.” Simon Newcomb, astronome, applied mathematician, 1898
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner of the US Patent Office, 1899
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.” Horace Rackham, the president of the Michigan Savings Bank, 1903
“It would appear that we have reached the limits of what it is possible to achieve with computer technology.” John von Neumann, mathematician, physicist and computer scientist, 1949
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” Steve Ballmer, former chief executive officer of Microsoft, 2007
… and these are only some of the predictions about future that failed. People love to make predictions. Making predictions is pretty easy — making predictions that will come true is much more difficult. Now above-mentioned quotes may seem hilarious, because with the advantage of hindsight we can say that it was obvious from the beginning that plane is a breakthrough innovation for the transportation, Internet gives humanity huge opportunities and so on. To understand why sometimes people just don’t believe in the future of prominent developments and reject them, we should analyze the path that every successful invention goes through.
When something completely new is invented, it attracts attention. After the first wave of surprise and interest has settled, society begins to consider how to make this invention useful and usable in everyday life. Some people oppose it desperately pointing out shortcomings of the innovation and insisting in every way that they don’t need it, they already have everything that satisfies their needs. For most people switching to something new may be unbearable challenge, and they prefer to continue using obsolete products instead of enjoying new possibilities that comes with innovations.
It also can be explained by the fact, that things are rarely ready to be used right after they’ve been discovered. They usually need refinements and improvements that can take a long time. Very long time. And most people don’t bother understanding the issue, just proclaim that it is inconvenient and will never be worldwide-used. That’s why many people, including technically educated scientists, predicted that “there is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” (Ken Olsen, 1977). At that time one computer occupied several rooms and weighed few tons — and yes, looking at that metal monster, it was difficult to imagine anybody who would want to have it at home. But Ken Olsen didn’t consider prospects of the invention — that it will be improved, refined and in the end give possibilities humanity has never seen before. It is important not to judge the innovation by the current condition and shortcomings, but to think wider — to see the essence and possibilities that this technology brings.
The most recent innovations, that are now discussed in every newspaper, forum or blog post, are blockchain and based on this technology cryptocurrencies. Many experts have already expressed their opinions, and here we have the full scale of emotions: from skepticism and certainty that crypto has no future to adoration and strong belief that it will change the world.
Cryptocurrency has a lot of issues. Aside high volatility, which is the first that comes to mind, there are also many things that need to be improved. Nowadays cryptocurrency is not user-friendly. If you forget or lose you private key from Bitcoin wallet — your funds are lost forever, if you mistype address when transfer money — they are gone. Average people won’t bother creating core Bitcoin wallet and learning how to use it. One of the main characteristics of cryptoworld is decentralization — but it’s not always good. You don’t have anywhere to turn if any problems occur. In this case it’s easier to continue using fiat money.
But the most important thing when talking about the future of cryptocurrency is to remember that crypto will not be forever in the same state as it is now. It will be improved and refined, and it may change in ways we can’t even imagine. Now it has problems — but it is young technology, that drew attention from the masses only few years ago and only begins to be closely examined.
Main issue about digital currency — most people don’t understand it. They don’t understand what it is, what determines its price and how to spend it. A decent time will pass before laymen stop being wary of everything that ends with “-coin”. People who has been using dollar, or euro, or any other traditional money all their life, don’t see why they need to switch to digital currency and actually are afraid of it. And without preliminary study it is difficult to understand the whole concept of cryptocurrency.
In next years the concept of cryptocurrency will be brought and explained to masses. Children will study the basis of blockchain and digital currency at school. Some universities already offer crypto-related courses (New York University, for example — “The Law and Business of Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies” course). General awareness will grow and level of distrust decrease. When you know and understand something — you can trust it and use it, so explaining new technology to masses is the crucial step.
Now there is a huge amount of altcoins, tokens, ICOs, blockchain-related projects. Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, predicts that 90% of all tokens will fail — and he is probably right. After the failure of most tokens and token-related projects workable ideas remain. But those that remain will be there for long.
More and more countries begin to accept cryptocurrencies as legal method of payment. Some governments announce the issuing of their own digital currency. And probably people will tend to trust more government cryptocurrencies. It may sound awful to crypto evangelists, who understand the initial purpose of creating currency, that is decentralized, unregulated and independant. But we have to look at the facts: people may not trust some guys from the internet, whom they don’t know, but they will trust president of their country who announce the issuing of country’s cryptocurrency. But still, it’s better than fiat money. Technology of blockchain is about to be used in a wide range of services — from voting system to the buy-sell transactions.
Crypto has gone through all stages: mockery, denial, interest and — what we can see right now — growing popularity and general attention. Cryptocurrency will not just go away and be one of the forgotten inventions that haven’t proved benefits of their use to society. It has already spread all over the world and penetrated to the society.
People are reluctant to accept anything new that can draw them out of their comfort zone. Those who are able to foresee the prospects of new technologies will first and foremost get all the benefits. In the modern world, where everything is changing, it is incredibly important to stay opened for new things that make life better. As we can see, the development of cryptocurrency is going in leaps and bounds, and there is no doubt that in future more and more people will understand importance and benefits of this completely new concept of money.
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