Piecing Together the Puzzle: Major Questions Surrounding the 2025 F1 Driver Market
The Formula 1 driver market is gearing up for an incredibly thrilling and unpredictable season, where probably we’ll have to wait until next winter to see who will be driving where from 2025 onwards.
For the first time in Formula 1 history, there is no change in the lineup between two seasons. Every team is sticking with the same driver pairing they ended the previous year with. However, this status quo won’t hold for 2025, as there are already announced transfer (Hamilton switch to Ferrari) and what will come after that is crazy.
The situation couldn’t be more complex, with numerous factors at play, making it difficult to paint a precise picture. In this article, I’ll explore the key questions surrounding this year’s driver market, the factors influencing it, and how they’re shaping the entire landscape.
The most crucial fact to note is that there are currently six drivers with contracts extending to 2025 (Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton). Additionally, there’s Lance Stroll, who practically has a contract but his participation isn’t guaranteed, and Alex Albon, who has some form of agreement with Williams but could leave (and probably will) if he chooses to.
Apart from them, all the drivers’ contracts expire at the end of 2024, meaning that only Ferrari and McLaren are currently guaranteed.
The drivers with the most significant influence on the market are undoubtedly Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon. While there are other highly valued drivers whose contracts are expiring, Sainz is leaving Ferrari due to Hamilton’s arrival, and Albon, being at a higher level in the F1 hierarchy than his current team, has ample reason and opportunities for a change.
It’s essential to talk about some of the seats that are becoming vacant at the end of 2024. Mercedes will need a new teammate for George Russell, and there’s a good chance Red Bull will part ways with Sergio Perez by the year-end.
Regarding Red Bull’s seat, there’s a strong internal contender in Daniel Ricciardo, but there is no guarantee that he will get in and it is possible that he will only get a one-year deal, in which case they would have to find a new driver from 2026. However, if Ricciardo doesn’t perform to the expected level this year, they would have to go outside if Perez is lost, unless Tsunoda shows strong dominance over his Australian teammate. The Visa RB duel also comes down to who, if neither can step up to the big team, can keep their seat at all, with Liam Lawson almost certain to race for the Faenza outfit from 2025.
The third influential seat is at Stake-Sauber, which becomes Audi’s team from 2026 onwards. Many drivers are eyeing this factory supported seat, given the interpreted success of Audi’s ambitious project. There’s a chance for both seats to be contested, as neither Zhou nor Bottas has demonstrated the required level for this serious project.
There’s a good chance that the vacant seats and available drivers’ desires align, at least partially. Sainz is likely to join Audi, but options with Red Bull and Mercedes have also been discussed. One thing is certain: Sainz has a plethora of options, with his performances in recent seasons serving as strong recommendations.
Albon is already linked with Red Bull, the team he was dropped from after the disastrous 2020 season. But there is no question that Red Bull promoted Albon to the big team too soon, with too little experience (after only half a season). Since then, he has gained a wealth of experience and shown just how fast he really is, and it should be remembered that the Thai driver’s relationship with Red Bull has not broken down, so a return is a possibility. The Mercedes seat is also a significant possibility for him.
Two other drivers worth mentioning are the Alpine duo.Although Gasly and Ocon are in the same position as everyone else whose contracts are about to expire, one important difference is that they are basically fighting to leave rather than keeping their seats. Alpine is a factory team but they have been struggling in the midfield for years, and with the sacking of the management last summer the team’s ideological value plummeted and the project seems to be on the brink of collapse, especially as their car this year (from what we have seen so far) is absolutely exhausting the horrible category and the tests suggest they will be fighting in the beaten field rather than the midfield.
It is no wonder that both drivers want to leave. Given their talent and pace, they have a lot to go for. Basically, Mercedes could be in the primary crosshairs of both of them, and Ocon is in a better position because he is still a quasi Mercedes junior and Toto Wolff is still holding his hand. However, it is questionable whether Ocon’s more troublesome personality and pace could be enough for the Mercedes project. Gasly is also a very fast driver (probably even faster than Ocon) and a lighter case in terms of character than his teammate, so he also could be a contender for Hamilton’s vacant seat.
Considering all this, it’s no wonder both drivers are considering their options. They have the talent and pace to move elsewhere, with Mercedes being a primary target. However, other options like Audi or Aston Martin also present themselves, making them key players in the 2024 driver market.
In conclusion, the development of the driver market will primarily be shaped by key vacant seats and available drivers, with some independent swaps also possible. The movements at the top teams will determine the rest of the grid, depending on who the top teams take (e.g. Albon, Gasly, Ocon) and who they take out (e.g. Perez).
And the back of the field is in for a huge shuffle and is currently even more unpredictable than the front of the field. Almost anyone can go anywhere, plus there are some drivers who could be out of the loop, such as Sargeant, Zhou or even Magnussen, and there are plenty of talented youngsters at the “F1 gate”, so there is a huge selection of rookie imports for teams to choose from.
The actions this year will largely decide the drivers’ positions for the next 2–3 years, and will determine who and where will start the new era that will begin with the 2026 season.