Don’t panic about the head-fakes

I’ve seen lots of well-intentioned posts and articles worried about whether this or that is a “head fake” or a “distraction”, or “who’s behind [the latest insanity].” It’s easy to get wrapped up in these riddles, and to become paralyzed with uncertainty.

I have good news: you can stop worrying about this stuff. Here’s why —

1. The most important things we can do right now don’t depend on the answers to these questions.

Things I believe are valuable (I’ve included at the bottom some resources on how to take these actions):

• Ensure elected representatives hear your dissent: call congress, speak up at town halls and local meetings, protest. Change their political calculations: turn those who are “concerned” into firebrands. Force those keeping their heads down to take a stand. Make Trump collaborators fear for their political future.
• Protect vulnerable populations (e.g. by donating to orgs that support them, and pressuring local/state govts on their own policies.)
• Lay the groundwork for a 2018 wave election that will crush the Trump collaborators.
• Gather your friends, colleages and neighbors in doing the same.
• Build bridges to those who are inclined to sit on the sidelines. (If you’re really brave, engage people who support Trump. But that’s a very long-term problem.)

NONE of this depends on whether Trump is an evil genius or a puppet. NONE of this depends on who authored the Muslim ban. NONE of this depends on whether Pence has been the real plan all along.

I’d argue further that optimizing among the many options for action isn’t nearly as useful as just trying something. Find something that feels meaningful to you and go do it. Or ask someone whose judgement you trust. (Also see links at the bottom).

2. In any case, it’s pretty hard to identify which of the many competing theories is actually correct.

This piece explains it really well:

The problem is what a social scientist would call “observational equivalence” of two diametrically opposing arguments. We have two theories of why something is happening, and yet we cannot tell which is the “correct” theory based on the data that we observe…It is best to recognize any attempt to establish a Coherent Theory of the Trump Presidency based on public outputs for the Kremlinology that it is. The hot takes of “I have a theory that makes sense of all of this!” are the qualitative equivalent of curve-fitting. Don’t ignore these hot takes; one of them is probably right, after all. But understand what is missing.

So…

So if you enjoy political speculation, I’m not going to judge your choice of recreational activity! Just don’t confuse staying on top of the latest theories with making a difference.

Or to put it differently: politics can be a spectator sport, but you’ll soon discover that it’s much more satisfying to be on the field.

Appendix: A few great ways to take action

• To pressure members of congress follow the guidance at https://www.indivisibleguide.com/ where you can also find others in your area doing the same.
• To protect vulnerable populations, donate to the Council on American Islamic Relations and the ACLU. (There are lots of great orgs out there, but if you support these two you can feel good.)
• Lay the groundwork for 2018 elections with https://knockeverydoor.org