National seed showdown?: Stakes high in Clemson-Louisville series
Ranked as high as No. 7 nationally, Clemson baseball’s push for a home-run to the College World Series goes through the No. 2 Louisville Cardinals this weekend.
The Cardinals (43–6, 20–4 Atlantic Coast Conference) come to Doug Kingsmore Stadium looking to build on a top-seed campaign and wrap up the Atlantic Division. Clemson (37–12, 16–8), which sits in second place in the Atlantic, needs a sweep to challenge for the latter, but can make some headway in its bid for a national seed. Diving into the numbers going into the series…
National seed race
Clemson sits squarely on the national-seed bubble for home-field advantage until Omaha after a 5–5 run in its last 10 games and two ACC series losses in the last three tries.
The 13–2 start to conference play has them in a good position with a strong finish, however.
Both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America project Clemson as a national seed, at No. 7 and No. 8 respectively, with two weekends left before Louisville hosts the ACC Baseball Championship.
Monte Lee’s Tigers boast the No. 7 RPI and also rank seventh in the Boyd’s World Iterative Strength Ratings. To stay in the top-eight in RPI going into the ACC tourney, Boyd’s World says any combination of three wins will do the trick among home dates with Louisville and defending national champ Coastal Carolina (31–17–1) and the final regular-season road trip at NC State (28–21).
What does a national seed mean?
Over the last five seasons, national seeds have made the College World Series at a 40 percent rate. That doesn’t seem all that high, but as eight teams out of a 64-team field, it’s decent.
Last year, Clemson, as a 7-seed, was one of five national seeds to fall short of the CWS. The worst run for top-eight seeds recently was 2014, where only two made it, and national champion Vanderbilt charged to the top from outside of that top-tier.
Due to upsets, national seeds aren’t always hosting Super Regionals, so hosts have moved on to the CWS at a 62.5 percent rate since 2012.
Clemson looks primed to at least host a regional for a second-straight year and hopes to make the Super Regional round for the first time since 2010 (where they went on to the CWS).
Going into game 50…
Clemson made an ACC Championship run last year in Durham to earn a national seed. This year’s team is positioned five wins better than the ’16 Tigers (32–17) going into game 50.
Notable differences between the teams via SeldomUsedReserve.com:
* The ’17 Tigers are hitting eight points better as a team (.286 from .277), but are bringing home runners in scoring position at a much lower rate (.269 from .294).
Reigning national player of the year Seth Beer is an interesting test case in the stat, where teams have obviously (and understandably) targeted his approach at the plate.
Beer scored 38.7 percent of RISP at this point last year with almost 200 balls put in play (199). Through Tuesday’s date with Furman, Beer is down to driving in 27.6 percent runners with 149 balls put in play. Junior catcher Chris Williams is countering that with an incredible .425 RISP% with one more homer than Beer (13 to 12).
The overall down numbers are well beyond one player.
Clemson had six averaging a 30 percent or better rate in scoring RISP last year (min. 10 at-bats), while this year, they have two (Williams and Drew Wharton). Swept at fellow national-seed candidate UNC a couple weeks ago, the Tigers lost by a combined five runs and went 3-of-25 with runners in scoring position (.120).
* Picking up the slack from run production is an improved pitching staff. Marty Coleman at SUR went inside the numbers around midseason. The starting staff of Charlie Barnes (5–3, 2.93 ERA), Alex Eubanks (6–4, 3.76) and Pat Krall (7–1, 2.49) have fueled the year-to-year jump.
This weekend’s showdown pits the ACC’s top-two in strikeouts and walks per nine innings (all ACC-only stats). Krall ranks third in ERA (1.63) with a 4–1 mark in conference, while Eubanks is tops in complete games (2) and joins Barnes in the top-five among peers in strikeouts.
The bullpen has been an adventure down the stretch, but they look build on the weekend series versus Nevada with zero earned runs allowed in 9 2/3 innings. Sophomore Ryley Gilliam has emerged this season as a valuable arm to close out games (1.05 WHIP/36.3 strikeout rate/4 saves).
A little on Louisville
Stat profile on the Cards and bonus series notes (ACC-only stats unless otherwise noted):
* Louisville’s 10–2 and winners of eight in row in ACC road matchups.
* Third in team batting overall (.295), but eighth in ACC play (.254).
* League leaders in ERA (2.60), strikeouts (214) and saves (12).
* Ranks 1–2 with Clemson in fielding percentage (.982 for Louisville and .977 for Clemson).
* Junior left-hander Brendan McKay notched his seventh ACC player of the week award this week after throwing eight scoreless innings in a win over Notre Dame. He leads the ACC with 77 strikeouts and is also batting .379 with 15 homers (third in conference) and 46 RBIs.
* Louisville put up 31 runs in a sweep of Clemson in last year’s series, but the Tigers tagged four runs on McKay in a 5–3 win later in the ACC Baseball Championship.
Brandon Rink has covered Clemson and ACC sports for a decade-plus for various outlets on the web and in print (most recently for the Anderson Independent Mail in the USA TODAY Network). Follow more of his work on Facebook and Twitter.
