2024 US Debt Clock & USD/Bitcoin Ratios
Projected USD/Bitcoin Ratios Bullish on Bitcoin
The US Debt Clock’s “Time Machine” function provides a terrifying glimpse into our nation’s financial future in 2024.
2024 Debt Bomb
United States federal debt is projected at over $43 Trillion by 2024 — more than double the national debt level in 2016. Each US citizen’s share of federal debt (~$127,000/Citizen), state debt (~$3,700/Citizen), and local debt (~$7,000/Citizen) amounts to ~$137,000 government debt per citizen. This number does not take into account additional liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, Unfunded) of ~$548,000 per citizen.
How has the US stayed ahead of the government debt bomb for the last 20 years? By printing money.
M2 Growth Trends
According to the US Debt Clock, US M2 Money Supply is currently on track to increase by 95% in the next four years, a tripling of M2 growth trends since 2000. Again, this massive increase does not fully account for future policy responses to the current economic crisis (Qfinity).
US M2 Money Supply (2000): $4.7T
US M2 Money Supply (2004): $6.2T (+31%)
US M2 Money Supply (2008): $7.7T (+24%)
US M2 Money Supply (2012): $9.9T (+28%)
US M2 Money Supply (2016): $13.1T (+32%)
US M2 Money Supply (2020): $17.3T (+32%)
US M2 Money Supply (2024): $33.7T (+95%)
Consequences For the US Dollar vs. Precious Metals
What’s the effect of the recent surge in print-on-demand money? The US Debt Clock’s USD/Gold and USD/Silver Ratios reveal the extent to which supply-side economics will affect the real purchasing power of the US Dollar over the next four years.
Gold
US Dollar to Gold Ratio Definition: “The year-over-year increase in the M2 money supply divided by the yearly production of gold in ounces” (USGS, Federal Reserve)
US Dollar to Gold Ratio (2020): ~$23,000/ounce
US Dollar to Gold Ratio (2024): ~$45,000/ounce (+95% since 2020)
What it means: Without radical monetary and fiscal policy changes, the US Dollar will lose almost half its’ purchasing power against gold over the next four years. Supply-side economics value scarcity and favor gold here. If Qfinity demands more print-on-demand dollars, then the US Dollar may lose half (perhaps much more) of its’ purchasing power against gold in the near future.
Silver
US Dollar to Silver Ratio Definition: “The year-over-year increase in the M2 money supply divided by the yearly production of silver in ounces” (USGS, Federal Reserve)
US Dollar to Silver Ratio (2020): ~$2,300/ounce
US Dollar to Silver Ratio (2024): ~$5,500/ounce (+139% since 2020)
What it means: Silver will be stronger against the US Dollar than gold as silver trends higher towards historical gold/silver ratios.
Both metal-to-fiat ratios indicate that the US Dollar will lose significant purchasing power over the next four years. Serious inflation of the US Dollar due to US M2 Money surges has already begun.
USD/Bitcoin Ratios
The influx of new Bitcoin is fixed. A deflationary cryptocurrency by design, Bitcoin miners will be rewarded 1,312,500 Bitcoin over the next four years (210,000 blocks * 6.25 Bitcoin miner block reward).
Using projected 2024 M2 Money Supply numbers from the US Debt Clock and the Bitcoin miner block reward numbers, the USD/Bitcoin Ratio is calculated below.
US Dollar to Bitcoin Ratio Definition: “The year-over-year increase in the M2 money supply divided by the yearly production of Bitcoin”
US Dollar to Bitcoin Ratio (2020): $1,600,000
(Calculated as $4.2T new M2 supply from 2016–2020 / 2,625,000 Bitcoin Mined from Halving to Halving)
US Dollar to Bitcoin Ratio (2024): $12,495,238 (+681% since 2020)
(Calculated as $16.4T new M2 supply from 2020–2024 / 1,312,500 Bitcoin Mined)
What it means: As the new supply of US Dollars increases and the new supply of Bitcoin decreases, supply-side economics will affect the value of Bitcoin against the US Dollar.
This USD/Bitcoin Ratio suggests that by 2024 Bitcoin (+681% vs USD) will outperform both Gold (+95% vs. USD) and Silver (+139% vs. USD) against the US Dollar.
Hodl on and keep stacking sats!
