The 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip
The status of the majority is at stake in a historically contentious election.
Doug Jones is almost certain to lose his reelection campaign this year. The junior senator has maintained a much more liberal voting record than the conservative lean of his state would suggest, even accounting for partisan differences.
To compare, moderate Democrats Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and Joe Manchin (WV) have voted in line with the Trump administration’s prerogatives a majority of the time throughout the previous two Congresses. Jones has only voted in line with the administration’s wishes approximately one-third of the time, in a state much more conservative than Arizona — and almost as conservative as West Virginia.
In regard to judges, conviction proceedings against the president, and overall legislative affairs, Jones has voted in-line with his party more often than not. In deep-red Alabama, that spells almost certain electoral doom.
It is additionally important to recall the circumstances surrounding Jones’s win in 2017’s special election. His opponent, Republican Roy Moore, was a twice-impeached former state supreme court chief justice who was also credibly accused of sexually inappropriate advances upon several teenagers. Moore was such a poor candidate he was dropped by congressional leaders in his own party, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell urging him to drop from the race.
Even with such an extraordinary confluence of events, Jones won by less than two percentage points. It is almost guaranteed that Republicans will reclaim Alabama.
2. Colorado
While there is an argument to be made in favor of another race in this position, I would least wish to be in Cory Gardner’s shoes of all the Republicans running for reelection to the Senate.
Colorado, much like Virginia, has rapidly swung to the left in recent years; so much so, in fact, Gardner’s credentials as a relative moderate may not be of much help in the general election.
For all intents and purposes, Colorado is a (light) blue state. For Republicans to win at the statewide level, either the Democrats would have to run an especially poor candidate or the GOP would be riding high in an election wave year.
Unfortunately for Gardner, Governor John Hickenlooper is a formidable opponent. As the twice-elected, fairly popular, moderate Democratic governor of a Democratic-trending state, it stands to reason Hickenlooper would have the upper hand. In fact, Hickenlooper has led Gardner throughout the campaign season.
Furthermore, Gardner won his position in 2014 by less than 2%, against a flawed incumbent during a Republican wave election. According to all reports, this is not shaping up to be a Republican wave year. The circumstantial elixir of events which propelled him to a senatorial position are simply not in place during this election cycle.
Senate races have recently reflected the states at the presidential level more frequently than was once the norm. Gardner must run a campaign which is able to win at least some Biden voters, as Trump has been deeply unpopular in the state throughout the duration of his presidency. In order to do so, he must clean up among the conservative base and keep moderates from defecting to Hickenlooper. It seems exceedingly unlikely.
3. Arizona
Martha McSally is in an unenviable position heading into the upcoming election. There are several key factors, each serving as a headwind for the McSally campaign, limiting the ceiling for her campaign.
First and foremost, she has already lost statewide election against a moderate Democrat in a cycle closely mirroring the current one. In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema ran a campaign burnishing her moderate credentials, while McSally was forced to hew more closely to the president due to a contentious primary. There is nothing to suggest these underlying factors are not in play once more.
In an unfortunate turn for the McSally campaign, the incumbency effect has decreased in strength during the last decade. Furthermore, the incumbency effect is… limited for members of Congress who are appointees rather than elected into office.
Crucially, one of the greatest advantage of incumbency is an increased ability to rapidly fundraise the vast sums of money needed to campaign effectively. McSally has ceded this crucial advantage to Kelly, who has consistently been able to outraise and outspend her campaign.
McSally has traditionally used her illustrious military credentials in campaign advertisements, but Democrat Mark Kelly’s own impressive background may help negate the effect of these advertisements among Arizona’s sizable bloc of independent voters.
Most importantly, when these are all taken together, challenger Mark Kelly has maintained a consistent polling advantage in the mid-high single digits vis a vis McSally. However, Senate races have increasingly matched the results of their state at the presidential level; since Arizona is a much more difficult feat for Biden than Colorado, it stands to reason a victory for the Republican Senate candidate is more likely in Arizona as well.
4. Maine
Senator Susan Collins is inarguably in the battle for her political career. A bona fide centrist Republican, the Senator has been popular in her state since her first election… with the notable exception of the past year.
It is difficult to determine whether voters will place their long-term affinity for Collins over more recent frustrations with contentious votes she has made of late.
I, among others, anticipate the unfortunate death of liberal Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to play a greater role in this Senate race than perhaps any other. Collins, as one of the two Republican Senators to oppose filling the court’s vacancy, may be able to make a substantive claim that she is not beholden to her party.
On the other hand, the recently precipitous decline in Collins’s popularity among Mainers is tied to her vote for the previous Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. Unfortunately, it is also tied to the perception that her moderacy is naught but a ruse. Most Mainers are Democrats or independents, and her decline with those groups in the wake of that vote has not been made up by a corresponding increase in support among Republicans.
In other words, this election has turned into a battle between the respective bases of each political party in the state. Since there are more Democratic-leaning voters than GOP-leaners, this leaves Collins in an extraordinarily difficult situation. Unless she can convince voters of her continued commitment to moderate pragmatism, she is likely to face defeat in November as well.
5. North Carolina
Similar to Gardner, North Carolina’s Tom Tillis was originally elected in the Republican wave year of 2014. Unlike Colorado, however, North Carolina is a Republican-leaning battleground state.
Tillis’s opponent, Cal Cunningham, is a deft political opponent running as a moderate Democrat in a closely divided state. In 2016, for example President Trump prevailed in North Carolina as the state simultaneously booted its incumbent governor for Democrat Roy Cooper.
Once again, North Carolina is polling well within the margin of error at both the presidential and senatorial levels. The state is also distinctly polling to the right of national averages; assuming each of the four contests above does flip, North Carolina is the state most likely to determine the Senate majority.
Both parties have reason to be optimistic. Trump is barely behind Biden in polling averages of the state, in an election likely to tighten in the coming weeks based on historical norms. If the national climate does tighten, it bodes well for Trump and Republicans throughout the state.
However, Cunningham has been running ahead of Tillis by a larger margin than that shown in the presidential race. In that case, if Biden wins, Cunningham is essentially assured victory. If Trump wins, there’s a narrow — but distinct possibility that Cunningham could emerge victorious over Tillis by the slimmest of margins.
Tillis is additionally harmed by the popularity of incumbent governor Roy Cooper, whose strong reelection campaign is on the ballot this year. In reality, this state is likely to come down to the wire at both the presidential and senatorial levels, even if the Democrats are slight favorites.
6. Iowa
Iowa is probably a bit safer for Republicans than its toss-up status would suggest; President Trump continues to lead in polls conducted at the state level, after all.
It’s been six years since Iowa elected current Senator Joni Ernst, well-known for her “Make ’em squeal” ad in that year’s midterm elections. Seriously, watch that video.
Democrats, however, have a history of winning at the statewide level in Iowa, widely considered a swing state until recently. Obama won as recently as 2012, and Democrats captured three of the state’s four House seats in 2018; however, they fell behind in the marquee gubernatorial race.
Ernst is also running behind the president, if only by a few percentage points. But with Trump only up by approximately one percent, after winning by nine points in 2016, that really matters for Ernst’s reelection chances.
Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic challenger, is campaigning as a political outsider, in much the same way Ernst did six years ago. Unfortunately for Greenfield, she will likely have to rely on moderates and conservatives splitting their ticket — voting for Trump and herself, in the middle of a highly contentious Supreme Court battle.
Things can change, but I think this one is a bit of a reach for Democrats.
7. Montana
There’s only one reason this race is even considered anything close to a tossup: current Governor Steve Bullock — a moderate Democrat in a reliably conservative state.
Governor Bullock, the most popular politician in Montana, is only barely trailing current Senator Steve Daines, and the race has stubbornly remained within polling margins of error. Unlike other states, Montana has so far resisted the allure of straight-ticket voting, consistently electing Democratic governors in tandem with votes for Republican presidents.
Democrats have been surprising resilient in the state, with Senator Tester winning reelection only two years ago.
Daines can expect to be assisted by Trump’s lengthy coattails in a state where a comfortable majority of voters approve of his job performance. The Daines campaign has been quick to use Bullock’s own run for presidency earlier in the year against him, highlighting Bullock’s opposition to Trump.
I imagine the Supreme Court battle will be a boon to the Daines campaign as well… but the impact of that really cannot be determined at this time. Especially because, after all, Montanans reelected Tester after he voted to decline Justice Kavanaugh.
In all, it’s possible this seat could flip. Even so, it’s a bit of a reach state, especially in a presidential election year in a state that seems to be trending right. Regardless, it will be close.
8. Georgia*
Yeah, I really don’t see this happening too much. Democrat Jon Ossoff is running pretty close to Senator David Purdue, but Georgia is historically an incredibly inelastic state. In other words, changes in the national environment do not typically impact the state’s electorate as much.
Unless there’s some sort of drastic change in the next few weeks, Biden will not win Georgia. Therefore, Purdue will likely win reelection.
The upside for Democrats is that there are still a lot of potential gains with college-educated white voters in southern states such as Georgia.
In the future, changes in demographic voting habits may portend the purpling of this traditionally red state, but it doesn’t seem ripe for the picking this year. There’s not much more too be said here.
9. Michigan
Republican John James is an extremely charismatic candidate, an avid fundraiser, and an apt politician. Unfortunately for this candidate, Senator Gary Peters seems well-insulated from a loss due in large part to the strength of the Biden campaign.
Basically, take Georgia, reverse it, and you have this year’s Senate race in Michigan. In a more Republican national environment, James would be well-suited to flip the state. Peters is a low-key candidate, weaker than Debbie Stabenow — Michigan’s other senator.
Like Georgia, demographics have played a key role in the purpling of this state over the longer-term. It just doesn’t seem like this is the right year for Michigan Republicans.
10. South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham is almost sure to win. Like, that’s about it.
The only reason this state is on the map is due to the remarkably strong polling from challenger Jaime Harrison, alongside his impressive fundraising totals.
Harrison has outraised and outspent Graham in every fundraising period this year, and the polls have the candidates running neck and neck, despite Trump’s lead over Joe Biden in the state.
With the upcoming Supreme Court battle’s importance in this reliably conservative state, I just don’t foresee a Graham loss. It is more likely than some of the other seats though.
Reach States: Minnesota, Texas, Georgia*, Kansas, Kentucky
These are real reach states. Of course, the parties should actively contest anywhere and everywhere. You never know when the opposing party may nominate an egregiously poor candidate, such as the aforementioned Roy Moore in Alabama.
Nevertheless, it seems readily apparent that these Senate seats just aren’t that likely to flip. Relying on these seats to take or strengthen one’s majority status is, to be frank, delusional.
There are, however, almost always surprises during an election. Maybe one of these states will flip, but a state like Colorado will not; that is exceedingly unlikely, though.
