The Weekly Round-UP: 90 Days

Florida is a battle-ground state for the Presidency, but Indiana is the winnable Senate race for Democrats

Brendan Lyman, @304nola412 
Delta Blue Strategies, @DeltaBlueStrat

We’re now 90 days from Election Day. If there’s a week that political commentators will point to as when the race officially entered its final phase (and when Trump’s downfall began), it’s the week of August 8th. More specifically it’s Tuesday, August 9th.

“Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know.” — Donald Trump, August 9th

Trump’s statement was shocking, dangerous, and unprecedented for a serious candidate seeking public office. It was a clear dog whistle to anti-Federal government extremists and gun right activists. It’s also not likely to change the outcome in November.

Trump isn’t a professional politician (he likes to remind people of that any chance he gets), but he’s also not a political strategist. The Republicans faced an uphill battle in 2016. Trump faced a steeper challenge since he launched his bid. He faces a near impossible task with his failure to adopt a coherent strategy that expands on his base group of supporters that led to his primary victory.

Every day, more registered Republicans declare they won’t support the Republican nominee. Comments like Tuesday’s make it easier for that trend to continue and it increases the pressure on Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch Mitch McConnell to abandon their Party’s nominee.

Make no mistake, Trump’s 2nd Amendment comment won’t cost him the election, it only serves to strengthen Hillary Clinton’s and Senate Democrats’ hands.

The Weekly Thought

Democrats need to net four victories in November (five if Trump wins the Presidency) to retake the Senate. This cycle heavily favors Democrats retaking the Senate thanks to the GOP defending 24 seats, including in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Indiana.

A few months ago, Florida would have been a tossup and given Trump’s toxicity with Latino voters, a very possible Democrat pick-up. That was before a prolonged primary and the (re)entry of the Republican incumbent Marco Rubio into the race. Now 90 days from Election Day, it looks increasingly likely that Republicans will pull out a hard-fought victory in Florida’s Senate race even if Trump loses the state.

It’s also increasingly likely that Democrats will be able to pick-up a seat in a red state.

A month ago, it looked like Representative Todd Young would cruise in Indiana’s Senate race. Then, Evan Bayh made a surprising announcement.

Bolstered by the unpopularity of the GOP Presidential nominee, Bayh, the popular former Governor and son of a former popular Senator, announced that he would seek election to the seat that he had abandoned six years prior. Indiana was in play for the Democrats.

Bayh entered the race with an immediate advantage in cash, $9.5 million left over compared to Young’s $1.2 million. Cash combined with family name recognition and popular track record have made the Democrat the slight favorite in the red state. Indiana is likely to be as close as Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

In what could add insult to injury for the GOP, Indiana, the state that delivered the nomination to Donald Trump, could also be the state that delivers a Democratic Senate majority to a President Clinton in November.

Current Prediction

Presidential Race

*Hillary Clinton — 332 Electoral Votes, 51.2% of popular vote
Change from last prediction: Positive +18 Electoral Votes

Donald Trump — 206 Electoral Votes, 44.0% of popular vote

Senate Race
Democrats pick-up majority 52–48.

Democrats pick-up New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, and North Carolina. Hold retiring Senator Harry Reid’s Nevada seat.

Change from last prediction:
Democrats pick-up Indiana, North Carolina
Republicans keep Florida, Ohio

Have thoughts, comments, or questions? Contact Delta Blue Strategies