Joe, you appear to misunderstand the physical processes which have resulted in the exponential growth of complexity on the earth, since the birth of the solar system. The sun was formed by the contraction of a large gas cloud, due to gravitational instability. A large, homogeneous gas cloud which contracts under gravity, not only is energetically preferred, it also preferred by the generalised 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, as the gravitational field can absorb a large amount of entropy under contraction. This peculiar property stems from the fact that the gravitational field due to matter always attracts, and gravitational collapse is the main source of complexity and information in the universe. All the information and complexity on the earth, comes from this initial collapse, stored in the sun, and released in the form of high energy, low entropy photons generated in the nuclear fusion reactions in the centre of the sun, enormous gravitational compression at the core. After beginning as high-energy gamma-ray photons, after thousands of years of scattering through the energetic plasma, they emerge as still relatively low energy visible light photons into empty space, and arrive on earth, eight minutes later.
The key to understanding the growth of complexity on Earth, is the fact that on average, the energy deposited by solar photons(6000K), must equal the total infrared radiation reradiated at 300K from the surface, to the blackness of space at a temperature of 3K. White the energy budget must cancel, maintaining a more-or-less constant average temperature (slow climactic changes are irrelevant for this question), far more entropy is radiated to space as waste heat, because each infrared photon has 20 times the entropy of a visible-light photon. The energetic, ionising photons can break simple chemical bonds, and provide energy to catalyse complex biological processes, the most fundamental being the process of photosynthesis in plants. The earth has always provided niche environments, at the beginning, perhaps near volcanic vents, where energy drives chemical reactions, building larger and large organic structures. The carbon comes from special fusion reactions in former starts, which are only possible due to a fine-structure resonance in C12, which Astronomer Fred Hoyle predicted on the basis of observed abundance of carbon, and it was later verified in the laboratory, the only instance where anthropic reasoning has made such a precise prediction.
From amino-acids, to proteins, to enzymes, to RNA, and DNA, the growth in information capacity grew exponentially, but following a precise rate, determined by the net information content due to the ongoing entropy reduction in the earth’s biosphere. A log graph of complexity over the 3.5 billion years since life began, shows a straight line, barely affected by the roughly 7 or 8 mass extinction events, which actually resulted in an explosion of new forms, due to destruction of the old.
Information grows exponentially, because the information capacity is proportional to the complexity itself. The actual entropy deficit is far greater than can be absorbed by the biosphere even now. Yet the curve also shows, the line as reached the point where it is now human information in the form of human culture, language, artifacts and now computational abilities, which now drives the steady growth of information on the planet.
There is no “entropy” balance, there is no “entropy” constraint, there is no fundamental connection between planetary resources, ecosystems and energy sources which leads to environmental degradation. The fact that it does occur, has more to do with lack of political will, than any fundamental law of nature. In fact, what is created by human activity, far dwarfs that destroyed in terms of natural resources, in terms of complexity and information. It may change in the future, but at present there there is an abundance of entropy-loss to sustain all we create, without any effect on the biosphere whatsoever. The overwhelming source of low-entropy energy fueling the human creative project, comes from that stored in fossil fuels, and nuclear isotopes. What ever problems these cause, they are solvable, especially with most solar radiation now being directly radiated to space over most of the land on the earth’s surface.
Like I said in another reply, value is what humans create, it is determined what by what we find valuable. The capacity for creation of value is ultimately only limited by the capacity of the sun, by the time we exceed this capacity, there will be far greater energy sources at our disposal. Voluntary trade, free-markets and the efficient price mechanism, is the most efficient way to distribute information content within an economy. The method of creative destruction and selection of the most efficient businesses, follows the same pattern of environmental selection, which in one form or another has existed every since the formation of the first atoms. Only humans have had the hubris to believe that one person, or even 1000 people, can dictate to an a tribe, a city, a nation or the earth itself, in a top down fashion, what processes must be followed, and which must be forbidden, and it is precisely what we call freedom, rather than tyranny, than allows such spontaneous growth to be possible. Humans are increasingly seeing the value of the natural world, and as the example of the developed world and acid rain, the environment is far better condition than fifty years ago. The extent to which the West is involved in environmental degradation in developing countries, is due to hegemony, and is a political problem and an ethical problem, but not primarily an economic problem. Corrupt governments must also take their share of the blame, rather than just screaming imperialism and racism.
Economics: There is also the issue of economic inequality and how it comes about. Rightly or wrongly, the natural variability within human populations, throughout history and across cultures, which is ultimately related to evolutionary biology and genetic variability, time after time produces a 80/20 Pareto Distribution in measures such as:
- 20% of the input creates 80% of the result
- 20% of the workers produce 80% of the result
- 20% of the customers create 80% of the revenue
- 20% of the bugs cause 80% of the crashes
- 20% of the features cause 80% of the usage
Wealth distribution is a marker for productivity, and a typical Pareto distribution is 20% people had 80% of the wealth. This can further subdivisions such as 4% have 64%, indeed the UN report on income distribution as %GDP in 1992 says top 20%, 82.70% of GDP, 2nd 20%, 11,75%, 3rd 20%2.30%, 4Th 20% 1.85%, lowest 20% 1.40%. The distribution also holds for the 0.1%, which have 50%. Individual nations have lower distributions, and the greatest determinant of outcomes for the bottom 20% is the total GDP/capita of the country, which indicates that once the hangup about relative inequality is put aside, absolute poverty is always lower in countries with the greatest GDP/capita, regardless of relative inequality, with the possible exception of the United States (massive military spending, large debts, high taxation..) Wealth redistribution has marginal effects, too much theft from the wealthy, generally impacts the lowest paid workers, laid off due to less overall profitability. All attempts to remove this natural inequality has lead to communism, socialism, failed economies and mass murder. As this is not my area of expertise, I defer to the references.
Ultimately, there is even a possibility that the exponential expansion of the universe, due to “Dark Energy” or a cosmological constant, could forever stave off thermodynamic heat-death, allowing advanced life to exist indefinitely. If not us, the universal mechanism which produced such complexity on Earth, will ensure that there will be life, no matter what the various parameters behind the Fermi Paradox may be. But at the moment we are at the final state of “The Great Filter” which means whatever happens to the human race is up to us, physics has nothing to do with it.
