The dramatic fight for Britain’s scraps
Labour may be about to cruise this election, but it’s what happens to the other parties that could define the UK for a generation.
Let’s face it. From day one, when Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced an early election and surprised not just the world but his own party, it’s been very clear that Labour will win. And this coming Thursday, which happens to be the USA’s Independence Day, Labour won’t just win comfortably but by a landslide. The results were over before the election was even announced. Normally a predetermined event can be pretty boring. So why does this campaign feel more exciting than ever? It’s because what is most fascinating in this race is not the winner, but where all the other contestants place.
So what are the hopes and goals of the other parties? Let’s start with the one party where there aren’t really any hopes or goals, just survival and embarrassment. This whole election is a nightmare for them. Of course, I’m talking about the incumbent Conservatives. Publicly their goal is to somehow pull off a miracle and perhaps get a hung Parliament. It reminds me of a famous quote from a Premier League manager Sam Allardyce; “If you can’t win, don’t lose.” However, it’s no longer in question that they will lose. After 14 years in power, with 5 different prime ministers, Brexit, Covid and the Liz Truss debacle, the British public are clearly ready for a change. For the last 100 years, when the British voters tire of one of the 2 main parties, Labour or the Conservatives, they switch, with the other party coming a comfortable second. But such is the Tories standing that there is a very real, if tiny, possibility that they won’t even come second. Many opinion polls have suggested that the Tories are in danger. If they fail to come second, it will mean they are not the official opposition and be far less relevant. Therefore, as bad as things are for them, it’s vital they steady the ship. Damage limitation is the key.
The other parties, on the other hand, have everything to gain and nothing to lose. One party that I recently covered, Reform, are making their election debut. They have taken the political scene by storm and are seen as a right-wing, anti-immigration, anti-establishment party. However, while they are hoping for about 30 seats, the reality is they will do well to get 5. The same applies to another relatively new party to British shores, the Greens. The Greens, who are arguably the most left-wing of the parties, have made a good impression with the public even though most people still won’t vote for them. Like Reform they have to aim high, but they will do well if they can double their tally from 1 MP(Member of Parliament) to 2. What’s vital for both of these parties is that they get on the board. By having established MPs, they will have more funds, a higher profile and respectability. That in turn attracts more respectable members and in the future more respectable candidates. We’ve seen in the last few days how both parties have struggled with extremists, whether it is bigots attracted to Reform, or Hamas sympathisers to the Greens. But success means they could draw in a higher quality of personnel.
The biggest potential winners are the Liberal Democrats. They have a real chance to dramatically increase their Westminster presence. There’s even a chance they could overtake the Tories and become the official opposition. This is unlikely, but just imagine if this happened. What would it mean for them? They would get a much bigger presence at Westminster, far more media coverage and they would have the opportunity to scrutinise and criticise the new Labour government at every opportunity. With this new high profile, they would even have the chance to become legitimate contenders at the next election. The irony is that the First Past the Post System which has hurt them in the past could help them now. The Tories may still have roughly 20% support compared to the Lib Dems’ 12%, but in individual seats in the southwest of England, large numbers of people will vote tactically to help them gain seats. If there is one drawback to being the main opposition it is that they would have to have clearer policies and be more open about what they really stand for.
What happens in Scotland and Wales (as well as Northern Ireland) is a bit different than in England. While England has 543 MPs, the other home countries have much smaller numbers. Scotland has 57, Wales 32, and Northern Ireland 18. In Wales, the nationalist Plaid Cymru would like to have more of a presence than the 3 MPs it currently has, and has good reason to feel hopeful. The opposite is the case in Scotland, where the SNP have dominated since 2015. Talks of a Labour wipe out does not seem as likely now, but they will do very well to hold on to 30 seats, which would give them a slight majority.
So to conclude, even though Labour will win a landslide, there’s still everything to play for. The Tories have to get their disaffected voters to come out and not vote for Reform. Reform has to tap into the anger of the Conservative faithful and steal some votes. The Greens, meanwhile have to do the same with Labour voters who are disillusioned with how far to the centre the party has moved and their stance on the Israel/Gaza conflict. The SNP has to do a similar thing against Labour in Scotland while reminding voters of its ultimate aim, independence. But the biggest potential winners probably have the easiest job. Because if the Lib Dems have a strength, it’s local politics. And if they can tap into Conservative apathy with their centrist message, they could hit the jackpot.
I’d love to know what you think. Please feel free to comment.
