Why now Rishi Sunak?

I’ve caught election fever! This is the first of a series of articles I will write about the upcoming British Election on the 4th of July. Enjoy!

The United Kingdom will have its General Election on the 4th of July. The same day as American Independence Day. Think of the timing of that for a moment. Britain will be choosing its leader on the same day that the USA, the world’s most powerful country and, by definition, the most powerful democracy, declared independence from Britain back in 1776. There are plenty of images all over social media showing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak making this announcement.

Many commentators have noticed how the man known for being Britain’s smartest dressed and slickest prime minister is giving his speech in the pouring rain without even an umbrella to protect his normally impeccable style. The stormy weather wasn’t the only one of his challenges. As he spoke, viewers around the world will have also have heard the distracting sounds of a loud speaker, not loud enough to disrupt his speech, but loud enough to make its point. The song that is played in the background is by D:Ream, Things Can Only Get Better, and was famously played to great fanfare when Tony Blair won his first landslide in 1997. I’ve included an archived link of it here if you’d like to see it. It almost feels as if Sunak’s Conservatives are doomed to lose the election from day one. But that leads to a very important question. Why on earth call the election right now to begin with?

The fact is Sunak had until January to call the election. He could have called the election anytime up to then. By having the election in early July, not only will kids be on holiday in Scotland and Ireland, but many MPs will themselves be in holiday mode. It hardly seems the ideal time to call an election.

So let’s explore the possible reasons why he decided to hold the election early. The first one is that this is the only practical time to have the election. Many commentators are saying that it would be a mistake to have it occur in early autumn because the Conservative Party Conference is in Birmingham at the end of September. The thinking is that a party already beset by infighting, anxiety and uncertainty would only undermine their already feeble chances by having an election just before or after fringe elements of the party come out and express their views. The argument against late autumn is that it’s too close to the US presidential election and could be too much of a distraction. The decision not to wait until the last minute, like John Major did in 1997, seems to be that Sunak doesn’t want it to look like the party is desperately clinging on for a few more days before being swept away. So having the election now is a chance to fight back, to suggest that it’s the Conservatives who are still calling the shots. It’s the wrong decision, however.

I can understand the temptation for Sunak to call the election now. The economy has improved, and inflation has fallen from an astronomical 11 % to a more normal 2.3%. The polls have consistently shown the Conservatives 20 points or so behind Labour, so there may be a feeling that the best chance to overcome such unlikely odds is now. It seems that his advisors have suggested to him that this is the only possible window for him to do this. Finally, there’s the rumours, often said in jest, that Sunak wants to get this all over and done with so that when he loses he can move with his family to southern California in time for the start of the school year.

However, none of these reasons justify this decision. If Sunak wants to take inspiration from any election against overwhelming odds, it is the surprise victory of John Major in 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were expected to win. Major hadn’t been prime minister that long after succeeding Thatcher, but he realised that his low chances of winning would not be helped by calling an early election. Early elections only help when the incumbent party is holding it’s own in the polls, not lagging miles behind. Major used the same tactic of waiting the maximum allowed time for elections twice. 1992 worked, while 1997 didn’t. But life in politics is short, and Major’s 1992 victory meant he ended up having 6 and a half years as PM, far longer than most.

And that moves us on to the second point- legacy. If Sunak loses this election, it will mean that he was only the PM for less than two years, far better than Liz Truss, but shorter than most other reigns. I would have thought that he’d at least want to cement two years for himself and wait another 4 months. The very best he can hope for is a hung parliament, which will inevitably mean he’s not going to remain PM anyway. Even if there is the risk of a greater defeat at the end of the year, there’s also a small chance that he could turn his party’s fortunes around. It won’t happen, but a month is a long time in politics. Many things can happen on both sides. By holding the election now, he’s thrown away that slim possibility.

This ties into the fact that Sunak and his team may feel that the good news they can present now on the economy and migration is as good as it’s going to get and that later this year the bottom will fall out again. For example, the economic good news may be a false dawn. But if it is, why not take the chance to see what happens. The electorate don’t seem to be impressed with a couple of months of good news on the economy, but that could easily change it if was 6 months. Meanwhile, on illegal migration, the flights to Rwanda scheme will be shown up to have little to no effect. However, holding the election now just makes the Conservatives look weaker. The time that the first flights to Rwanda would have taken off would have been just after the election. Now those flights won’t happen. As disagreeable and controversial a policy as it was (and one I was always against), Sunak really seemed to stick his neck out for this plan. Now he’s, in essence, put it on the backburner, and it probably will be scrapped. This doesn’t portray him as a very effective leader and plays right into his opponents hands.

So to conclude, if Rishi Sunak’s plan is to win this election and remain as a prime minister, his gamble is a mistake. The best time to have held this would have been December or January. In fairness, he never had much of a chance anyway. A combination of 14 years of Conservative dominance, and the disastrous short spell of Liz Truss ensured that this election was never really going to be about him, but about voting out the Tories. Nonetheless, in a contest with the odds stacked against him, I would have advised Sunak to think again, and wait to the very end.

I’d love to know what you think. Feel free to write in the comments below.